Round 8 Review
6 of the 9 games in round 8 were won by favourites with St Kilda, Geelong and Sydney causing upsets. Real Class topped the round with 14.37, only West Coast let him down!
ROUND 9 TIPS
Fremantle $1.82 v Collingwood $2
Fremantle were very disappointing last week, probably the worst game they’ve played for a while. The Saints were able to completely shut down Serong and Brayshaw in the middle and kept Josh Treacy goalless. The Magpies looked dominant early against the cats before a poor 3rd quarter but almost made a crazy comeback after being 17 points down with just a couple of minutes to go, with Jack Crisp missing a set shot after the siren in what would of been a fairy tale in his milestone game. This morning Fremantle were $2.32 and Collingwood $1.53 but that’s just flipped to Fremantle $1.82 and Collingwood $2 with the news the pies are resting Pendlebury, De Goey and Maynard whilst Mihocheck is out injured. Hayden Young will miss with a hamstring for the Dockers also.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Before such a massive drift in odds with the outs for the pies it was an easy Collingwood tip, I’m still probably going to take them as the underdogs now because I think their system is just too good. Gut feel tells me the pies can still rest a few and win.
St Kilda $2.25 v Carlton $1.64
Carlton were terrible last week, they gave their supporters hope by beating Geelong and then really lowered their colours against Adelaide. St Kilda on the other hand played maybe their best game of the season against Fremantle. I think this is pretty close to a 50/50 game so the fact we are getting $2.25 on the more in form Saints seems value. I think Ross Lyon knows how to get the best out of his team, Carlton look better on paper but this year has proven system and pressure beats talent.
Mr Pineapple thinks – The line is +7.5 for St Kilda, I’m liking that and Carlton continually disappoint us so I’m taking the value on St Kilda in what I would have expected almost even odds on here.
Melbourne $4 v Hawthorn $1.25
The Hawks keep rolling on, Chol in the middle of a purple patch and Jack Gunston missed the first 3 games and since then is the best forward in the competiton which is astounding given his age. It took one of the best games from a Ruckman/captain in Max Gawn last week to fight off West Coast but Meek is a much tougher opponent and Hawthorn have the 2nd best coach behind Craig McCrae and shouldn’t be letting his team drop games like this.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Hawks win this, simple as that and the -24.5 could be the single bet to make here given we aren’t getting much back in $1.25 for them just to win. Max wont be able to bully Meek around and repeat last week.
Essendon $2.40 v Sydney $1.58
Sydney surprised me last week, they looked done with the injuries and out of form players but they got themselves up for the rivalry match against GWS. Warner and Heeney were good which is what they need to win, it was actually a pretty decent overall team effort. Essendon made hard work of North Melbourne and captain Zach Merrett could be up there in the brownlow votes at this stage given he just dominated for the Bombers to win. I don’t trust either of these teams yet though but I think both teams at their best on the night Sydney’s ceiling is higher.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’m expecting a close low scoring game. I like the under 172.5 total points and I’d probably lean towards Sydney winning this given Essendons real struggles against West Coast and North Melbourne.
Gold Coast $1.90 v Western Bulldogs $1.90
Game of the round in my books. Gold Coast really got smashed at clearance by Brisbane last week and let themselves down. Ben King had 2 touches and their mids got smashed. I rated Gold Coast highly and tipped them last week but upon reflection they haven’t really beaten the top teams and they dropped one to Richmond. The Dogs on the other hand couldn’t be more impressive lately, the return of Bontempelli has been massive and now they have Treloar back. I think they can do as Brisbane did and dominate stoppage and keep this impressive patch going.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Naughton is enjoying having the forward line to himself, I’m liking him to kick 2+ goals at $1.60 and think the Bulldogs can do what Brisbane did to the Suns last week.
Port Adelaide $2.30 v Adelaide $1.62
Port were embarrassed by the Doggies last week, that’s more like the Port I was expecting. Beat up on bottom teams and get smashed by top 4 caliber opposition. Ken has been good at getting Port up for rivalry matches but I think with Fogarty back already, Adelaide will be too good. Jordan Dawson is just leading the way and Adelaide’s forwards will be way too strong for Ports Defence. They beat up Carlton’s mids last week which is their strength and I can’t see Port winning games like this.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’m taking the $1.62 on Adelaide and I’m confident they cover the -8.5 line and will want to show South Australia who are the best team in town. Adelaide to win this comfortably.
Richmond $1.57 v West Coast $2.40
Can West Coast win a game this season? Well here’s their chance. The only March Richmond will start favourites and I think deservedly so. Their leaders are sticking up for the younger guys and West Coast just lack any type of leadership. West Coast might have to move Harley Reid back into the middle for this one but I have liked what I’ve seen from Richmond, they have key leaders to help out the youngsters and you can see their passion and effort, very much a contrast to most of West Coasts efforts this season.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Richmond will win this, I wouldn’t even be surprised if they blew West Coast away. Tarranto, Balta, Hopper, Vlauston and Lynch are miles ahead of the Eagles leaders and I’d even go as far to say that Richmond will clear the -11.5 line easily.
Geelong $1.50 v GWS $2.60
Geelong did it again. Take a bow Patrick Dangerfield, put his team on his back and said follow me. A 13 touch + a goal final quarter was enough to upset the premiership favourites whilst GWS were ordinary again in a game they should have won against Sydney last week. At Geelong I think $1.50 is generous but I do think GWS have enough A-Graders to make this one close.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’m taking Geelong, if you want a bit more value you could go 1-39 but it’s just hard to watch last weeks matches and think GWS are in good enough form to travel away and beat the cats here.
North Melbourne $6 v Brisbane $1.13
North Melbourne were brave coming back against the Bombers, but Essendon are not Brisbane. They’ll still be missing Paul Curtis and Brisbane just dismantled Gold Coast, the Ashcroft brothers were dominant. Brisbanes midfield depth is scary and they adjusted from the Collingwood loss and I think this is a 10+ goal belting on the cards. Charlie Cameron found his groove again and could be in for a big confidence boosting day here.
Mr Pineapple thinks – The only way you can tip North here is if you’re 30+ points off the lead. Brisbane will win this easily and I like Charlie Cameron to kick 2+ at $1.60, the Lions will really start to ramp things up now.
I’m using my best bet of the round in a punting challenge called Mr Pineapples Punting Pyramid. I’ve been running this for years and we’ve finished all 7 levels more times than Harley Reid and Dustin Martin have given ‘Dont Argues’ – it’s my best bet each round in a roll-over style challenge, aiming to win 7 in a row. We are currently on Level 3 on my website so I’ll share it here for you to follow along. This week it’s going to be Geelong to Win.
Punting Pyramid Best Bet
DOG OF THE ROUND – The Saints have the better form, take out Carlton’s wins over West Coast and North and it’s hard to see how they should be favourites. I do think Carlton at their absolute best are better than the Saints but we just aren’t seeing it very often. I couldn’t talk you out of tipping either team but it’s the price difference that makes the Saints my dog of the round.
MULTI WORTH A PINEAPPLE
Geelong Win $1.50
Adelaide -8.5 Win $1.90
Western Bulldogs Win $1.90
$5.40-1
