Round 10 Review
We had some big upsets in round 10 with Melbourne $5.77 showing there might just be a few kinks in Brisbanes armour, West Coast $3.12 rallied around the Selwoods after that shocking news and Fremantle $3.26 continued the up and down season that you can say about both them and the team they upset in GWS. Anyone who tipped Melbourne was going to feature high up on the leader board and it was Anomoly Nick with 15.2 points who topped the round and is in 2nd place overall. We’re getting close to halfway through the season and it’s really starting to show the value in backing long priced underdogs because anyone can win on the day, as shown in the graphic below.
ROUND 11 TIPS
Geelong $1.85 v Western Bulldogs $1.96
I cannot wait for Thursday night! Not only are these teams both in great form but comments made in the last month by Bailey Smith have added a huge amount of theatre to this match which will be his first against his club. There’s genuine bad blood at how his time at the Bulldogs ended and this will be a fiery clash. The Bulldogs have somehow played even better since losing Sam Darcy, they move the ball from Defence to forward 50 better than any other team, highlighted by Bailey Dale’s 49 touches last week. Geelong will be without star Patrick Dangerfield which is a big out.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I just think the doggies are flying at the moment, the in form team of the competition and their perfect blend of a strong Defence, effective forwards and the ball movement between the two is going to be hard for anyone to stop. Dangerfield out is huge and I’m taking the Bulldogs, can’t believe they’re not favourites!
Essendon $1.36 v Richmond $3.15
The bombers were held to just 36 points against the Bulldogs last week although the dogs have done similar to plenty of teams, it just highlighted that the bombers are not in that top 10 quality type bracket. Richmond were brace against North Melbourne and could have won. This is one of the games where Noah Balta’s weird curfew handed down by the courts means he’s unavailable which is a big loss, he’s been great since coming back. Sam Banks keeps improving and players like Hugo Ralph-Smith and those types are doing their jobs.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I think Essendon will win this, it’s a game they should but they have only just been winning these, usually by under 10 points, so I’m taking the Tigers at $3.15 because I think this game will be decided by under 20 points. The total points under 165.5 looks good here also.
Carlton $1.77 v GWS $2.05
It must be so frustrating supporting these two teams at the moment, the difference between their best and worst is a pretty big gap. I’m surprised Carlton are favourites as I’ve got this as close to a 50/50 game as you can this round. Carlton are at home but GWS almost always are travelling anyway. If we get the best versions of each team I’m siding with GWS, it’s just a bit of a coin toss with them which version shows up though. They’re each 2/4 the last four times they’ve met in close games each time won by the home side.
Mr Pineapple thinks – flip a coin, history shows they’re very even recently with the home team winning so maybe stick with that and take Carlton. They both have great top end talent we’ll see which delivers on Saturday.
Hawthorn $1.60 v Brisbane $2.35
The Lions have hit a few speed bumps the last two weeks, drawing with North Melbourne before losing to Melbourne at home. Before that they had just been doing enough to have us all believe they were slowly building their season nicely, but now they seem very beatable. The retirement of Joe Daniher without a replacement is showing how much they miss him. The Hawks just went down to Gold Coast but only by 8 points and I like their previous two weeks more than the Lions. If Brisbane hadn’t lost last week I think they would be favourites here. It should be a cracking game as the hawks get their leading goal scorer veteran Jack Gunston back and the lions will want to make up for two bad games in a row.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’m tipping hawks in regular competitions but I think the odds are just a little too far apart here to be taking $1.60 on Hawthorn to beat the reigning premiers. They’ll be doing everything to not go 3 weeks without a win so in a 50/50, take the value of Brisbane!
North Melbourne $5.40 v Collingwood $1.14
North Melbourne have been building, getting close without winning and finally got that against Richmond, just. Collingwood are the premiership favourites for many reasons and still have players to come back and it’s hard to bet against them until they give us reason not to. I think North will be happy to just survive a game like this and not get blown away, they have the midfield to win enough stoppages to keep this close-ish but the pies have answers everywhere.
Mr Pineapple thinks – If I’m still eligible for a perfect round at this point it’s an easy Collingwood tip, if im 30+ points behind the leader I think you need to start taking these big underdogs in hope to catch back up. Easy pies win for me, but in this type of competition depending on where you are on the leaderboard you may need to take a risk and go North.
Fremantle $1.35 v Port Adelaide $3.15
Fremantle are so inconsistent as are Port Adelaide. Port are the worst 2nd half team at the moment, with a new coach already set for next year, once they know the game is lost, they give up! The best bet here is Fremantle to win the 2nd half, that’s probably the best bet in any Port Adelaide game this year, if they’re behind at half time, live bet them to lose the 2nd half. I’m expecting a solid effort from Port in the first quarter, maybe half, then Fremantle to run over the top of them late.
Mr Pineapple thinks – As mentioned, as soon as port face a tough challenge and fall behind they give up and I think this is a game Fremantle must win to keep finals hopes alive. I don’t believe any at Port think they’re a chance this year it’s literally a gap year until Josh Carr takes over. Fremantle win and the 2nd half is a blow out.
Adelaide $1.04 v West Coast $11
These odds surprise me the most of this round. Of course Adelaide should be winning this, but we just saw West Coast rally behind the tragic passing of Selwood and get their first win of the season. I changed my tip when I found out the news last week for West Coast to beat St Kilda. Adelaide are a genuine top 4 team but if West Coast can keep any of that momentum from last week up, they could be in this game for a while. Im definately not tipping the Eagles in a normal tipping competition but $11 coming off a win is crazy odds!
Mr Pineapple thinks – If you’re sitting inside the top 15 on the leaderboard, just take the Adelaide win, if you aren’t, you absolutely have to tip West Coast at $11 here unless you are still alive for a perfect round with the 5 bonus points!
Melbourne $2.02 v Sydney $1.78
Another really tough game to predict, the Demons have won 4/5 since we thought they were gone and Sydney just keep on keeping on. Both teams are realistically not a premiership threat, neither have have no forward line, their strengths are their midfield but Melbourne have a better back line. It looks to the eye that Melbourne have more consistency and maybe changed a few things especially with their selection of players and for Sydney it’s Heeney, Warner and the Lizard or bust.
Mr Pineapple thinks – At home I think Melbourne should be favourites, they still have the better mids in Petracca and Oliver with the best Ruckman, although Gundy always gets himself up for games against all the clubs that traded him on. Melbourne should win this simply because I think the home ground advantage and that Petracca can still win games himself when he gets some support, Melbourne just – but without much confidence.
St Kilda $2.50 v Gold Coast $1.53
This is the easiest pick of the round by a fair margin. Gold Coast beat the Bulldogs who are in form. St Kilda are a bottom 8 team who sometimes play well against the better teams. How Gold Coast aren’t $1.20 here is beyond me, maybe because Ross Lyon has the ability to coach teams when they know they will lose, to turn it into a snore fest, bed time story to put you sleep! Gold Coast have all the weapons and will win this game – by how much, depends on how St Kilda set up.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Gold Coast at $1.53 are free money. They are flying and they come up against a mediocre list with a coach who knows how to go into damage control. Easiest tip of the round, Suns to win, by how much – who knows. It could be 10+ goals
I’m using my best bet of the round in a punting challenge called Mr Pineapples Punting Pyramid. I’ve been running this for years and we’ve finished all 7 levels more times than Harley Reid and Dustin Martin have given ‘Dont Argues’ – it’s my best bet each round in a roll-over style challenge, aiming to win 7 in a row. This week my best bet is Gold Coast to win at $1.53 or you could take the -11.5 $1.90 line as I think they’ll win comfortably.
Punting Pyramid Best Bet
DOG OF THE ROUND – Western Bulldogs $1.96
I think they should be favourites v Geelong considering Dangerfield is out and I’ll happily take a team I thought should be $1.70 favourites as $1.96 underdogs as my dog of the round. It’s basically a 50/50 match with the bookies but when you’ve got the most in form team in the comp coming up against an in inconsistent team without their best player, this is a no brainer!
MULTI WORTH A PINEAPPLE
Bulldogs win $1.96
Gold Coast win $1.53
Fremantle Win $1.35
$4.05-1