Round 11 Review
We had 3 punters get 7/8 correct but it was Redted3 who topped the round with the only incorrect tip being the Bulldogs who should have probably beaten Geelong if they took their chances! Around 15 points separates Bullrush79 in first and Real Class in 10th, which isn’t much in this type of competition, consider that Bullrush79 got 12 points in the opening round when Richmond beat Carlton, so no matter where you are on the leaderboard, you’re still in it at this stage you just need to adapt your strategy. But it’s definately too early to be playing it safe, the value is still in the underdogs. This round sees 4 teams have the bye so the odds of getting a perfect round (7/7) goes up!
ROUND 12 TIPS
Brisbane $1.09 v Essendon $7.25
It’s always tough when the opening game of the round is such a short priced favourite because you have the hope of getting a perfect round and with only 7 matches this round it’s even more likely some of us will get those 5 precious bonus points! Brisbane showed there’s levels they have that are above the other contenders when they easily beat the Hawks last week. My worry was were Brisbane just going through the motions but when they’re on, their best is arguably still the best. Essendon made tough work of a Richmond team without key players in Lynch and Balta and they basically sit perfectly above the bottom 4-6 teams but a mile behind the top 6 teams.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’m taking Brisbane simply because it’s the opening game of the round and I want those 5 bonus points and they should win easily. If you are 40+ points off the leaders you probably have to take Essendon but I just don’t see the Bombers troubling the top teams at all. Zach Merrett is always good value for a goal whilst I like either of the Ashcroft twins for over 20 disposals and Zac Bailey is having an All-Australian type season and is a good pick for both 20+ and Anytime goal scorer markets averaging 17 touches and 1.6 goals.
Collingwood $1.58 v Hawthorn $2.35
The pies sit nicely atop the ladder and had 9 senior players out against North last week and put them to the sword in the last quarter 8 goals to 1. They have the best system and without knowing who’s coming back into the team at the time of writing this, it’s a hard one. The Hawks are beating the teams they should but don’t have a great record against the other contenders and miss Will Day badly. But I still think they have it in them with one of the best coaches in the league perhaps able to tweak a few things to change things up. If the Pies don’t regain 2-3 key players (Moore, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, De Goey esk) I could see this being close, but I imagine they are strategically managing these and would bring a few back for a game like this!
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’d still tip Collingwood with their team last week in a normal tipping comp here, so I think once they name their team and we see 2-4 players back they will shorten in odds – either way I think Collingwood beat anyone at the moment. Ned Long has stepped up, 29 touches last week and when the pies Senior players are out you’ll get good value on the replacements for 20+ whilst their goal kickers remain a bit of a lotto, it’s always worth having Nick Daicos in there if he’s paying over $1.50 to kick a goal.
Gold Coast $1.38 v Fremantle $2.95
The Suns won their first game at Marvel in a while and proved they are the real deal. They’re back at home and just have stars everywhere as I’ve said all season. If there’s a line Fremantle could find an edge it’s their forwards but I think they’ll lose the midfield battle and lack depth in their back line. The line is only -16.5 for Gold Coast and I think they’ll just keep getting better as the season goes on whilst the Dockers are inconsistent and I much prefer them at home.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Give me the Gold Coast and the -16.5, they’ll take away Fremantles midfield edge and the dockers aren’t great at turning defensive 50 turnovers into scores. Ben Long is putting together some season and will keep kicking goals whilst Rioli is always good for 20+ touches
GWS $1.07 v Richmond $8.50
GWS proved too good for Carlton in Toby Greene’s 250th where he was massive, whilst Richmond without key forward and back duo Tom Lynch and Noah Balta (who both should return) were good against Essendon. Hugo Ralph-Smith was great and is a good pick for 20+ and Sam Banks is on track for his breakout season, given the ball-user role across the half back, both are value for 20+ touches.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I think GWS win, but if you’re not in contention for a perfect round at this stage, if Richmond get Lynch and Balta back, I don’t mind the +44.5 on the Tiges and if you’re way down the charts the $8.50 is a tempting tip because you aren’t climbing back with the $1.07 on GWS.
Sydney $2.15 v Adelaide $1.68
This is an unfortunate year for Sydney, the new coach and game plan, the injuries and the reliance on Heeney and Warner means they just aren’t in finals contentions in 2025. It’s the opposite for the Crows who should be disappointed in they don’t finish top 4 almost, they have all the keys to win this easily even away from home and I think whether or not they go in with 3-4 talls in the forward line, the Sydney forwards just don’t pose enough of a threat to win this.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Captain Jordan Dawson is getting forward more now and kicking goals, he’s value for the goal scorer markets and when Rankine comes up against a midfield who won’t tag him, he could be value for 20+. Adelaide are the best team for goal spread often having 8+ goal scorers so chuck in their wingers and half forwards for anytime goal scorers at value over the 3 main men. Adelaide win this and easily it’s the best value bet on a favourite this round.
Melbourne $1.50 v St Kilda $2.60
Melbourne have found their mojo, they always had the talent and a little reset and tweak to their game plan has seen them going from 0/5 and not scoring over 79, to cracking 100 (one game was 99) in most games since! Kozzie Pickett is one of the most dangerous players in the comp now and is value to get 20+ a week given he’s starting in the midfield before pushing forward with that mismatch. St Kilda are falling back to what we expected, hard to play against for most of the game but without A-Graders. I expect Melbourne to win this 1-39 and you can look to some of their younger talent who are getting more minutes in key roles now for 20+ and goal scorers.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Melbourne win this and I like the under 169.5, I think the Saints will make the game slow and it’s still in Melbournes DNA to be low scoring when the opposition allow it. Steve May should have a lot of disposals this week so is value for 20+ whilst players like Chandler and Sharp are value for goal scorers.
West Coast $6.25 v Geelong $1.12
This round we have 3 team under $1.12 to win out of 7 games and for this reason I’m thinking there will be a lot of perfect scores. West Coast have improved but Geelong just keep winning, the dogs were better overall and still lost to them last week. Bailey Smith had the last laugh after all the build up and I don’t see Geelong dropping games like this. West Coast are being competitive for longer now which is good for the competition but this will be a matter of, Geelong are too well coached to be beaten and if at any point they are down, will be able to make changes mid game to get the win.
Mr Pineapple thinks – If you are 6/6 coming into this it’s a no brainer and you take the cats. If not and you’re 30+ points behind the leaders you might need some WA magic and an eagles win to get back in touch. Ollie Dempsey is value for a goal off his wing role where he pushes forward as is Harley Reid who’s hitting the score board after being moved back to his midfield role and I wouldn’t be surprised if Jeremy Cameron had over 20+ touches this week to go with 5+ goals. Leaning towards the under 171.5 just because I don’t think West Coast will score more than 60 points.
Punting Pyramid Best Bet
Adelaide to me are the best straight up win bet of this round at $1.68, they’re top 4 hopefuls against a team who at this point, aren’t going to make finals now. I’m confident Adelaide win this and even cover the -5.5 line EASILY!
DOG OF THE ROUND – It’s a bad weekend to be an underdog, I’m licking my lips thinking those bonus 5 points are coming my (and a lot of others) way with all favourites winning the 7 games but if I had to tip you into an underdog, I’d say St Kilda perhaps could make the game low scoring and decided by under 20 points and it comes down to moments or accuracy in the game. So St Kilda without much confidence just because they can keep it close.
MULTI WORTH A PINEAPPLE
Collingwood Win $1.58
Adelaide -5.5 Win $1.90
Melbourne 1-39 Win $2.15
$6.45-1