Round 15 Review
Wiserthan topped round 15 with 13.43 points, only missing a perfect round because they tipped St Kilda to beat Collingwood! There were 3 underdogs who got up with Brisbane breaking a 25 year curse at GMHBA beating Geelong, while North Melbourne basically ended Carltons finals aspirations and Sydney got key players back and could upset a few more teams finals chances in the run home. There are 4 teams having the bye in Brisbane, Essendon, Geelong and GWS. Its getting to the pointy end of the competition now and if you are not within 15 points of the leader you may have to start hoping for some big upsets and tip accordingly, there are plenty of opportunities this round with some massive priced underdogs.
ROUND 16 Tips
Port Adelaide $1.68 v Carlton $2.19
Carlton are in a shambles currently, there is mounting pressure on Michael Voss but realistically they aren’t going to make finals now as they would need to win at least 6 of the last 9 games. Port are in an even worse position but start favourites here because they’re at home. Carlton looked terrible in the 2nd and 3rd quarters against North last week and I cant recall a match this season that they played 4 quarters, Charlie Curnow is not getting near it but it just seems like a very Carlton thing to do if they were to get themselves up for this game just to give their fans some hope and crush it later. Port have been looking more dangerous lately with Willie Rioli and Mitch Georgiades up forward and Jason Horne-Francis and Zac Butters in the midfield but are also a hard team trust.
Mr Pineapple thinks – One of the harder games to tip this round because you just never know what you’re going to get with both of these teams. I feel like Michael Voss would have been scary this week and will make sure if they lose its not through lack of effort or pressure. Because they are the more likely of the two to still think they can make finals I’m siding with Carlton and the better odds.
Sydney $2.36 v Western Bulldogs $1.59
The Bulldogs look so good when they play the bottom 9 teams, they’re the best in fact when it comes putting those teams away. Sam Darcy could be the best player in the competition by the end of season, he’s kicked 8 goals in his two return games from injury and looks unstoppable, the dogs might have the two best players in the league in fact as Marcus Bontempelli reminded everyone of his class with 31 touches and 3 goals last week. Sydney are a bottom 9 team but finally got some key players back and looked more like the team that finished on top of the ladder last year. The inclusions of Tom Papley, Joel Amarty and most importantly Errol Gulden will make Sydney a tough match up for top 8 teams, you would be feeling a bit hard done by if you had to play them in the last 9 rounds opposed to teams who got the injury decimated version in the first half of the season.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I still think the Bulldogs will win here, I have no doubt Sydney will win some games as underdogs in the last 9 matches but I don’t see how Sydney will stop the influence of Bontempelli and Darcy so I’m happy taking $1.59 for the dogs to get the job done. I also like the total score under 172.5 in this match.
Gold Coast $1.39 v Melbourne $3.02
Gold Coast keep letting me down lately, they had a blistering start to the match against GWS and looked like they would win by however much they wanted but it all just stopped after half time and they’ve fallen out of the top 8 for the first time this season. They have a game in hand and should be fine with the run home they have and home games like this against Melbourne are must wins now. They have one of the best midfield groups in the competition led by Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell but they need to be harder to score against if they are going to trouble the top teams. Melbourne are coming off the bye and were poor against Port Adelaide, they don’t have much to play for now with finals out of the equation and its probably time for Simon Goodwin to give the younger players more minutes in key positions and find out what he has to work with in 2026.
Mr Pineapple thinks – If Gold Coast were to miss finals from the position they were in a month ago it would be a monumental choke, but I don’t see that happening. At times they looked unstoppable against GWS and I think they do whatever they want to Melbourne and cover the -17.5 line easily here.
Hawthorn $1.14 v North Melbourne $5.80
North Melbourne’s last 6 weeks have been their best since they started their re-build, it looked like they were going to beat Carlton by 10+ goals at one stage last week. Young players like Colby McKercher (30 touches, 2 goals), Harry Sheezel (30 touches, 1 goal) and even Finn O’Sullivan should have Kangaroo fans optimistic about the future and Cam Zurhaar (3 goals) and Paul Curtis (2 goals) and dangerous up front while Nick Larkey is in a little form slump. The Hawks are coming off the bye and this is back in Tasmania, it wasn’t the easiest game to watch when they beat Adelaide a couple of Friday nights ago but both of these teams are used to playing in Launceston and it’s a 4.15pm game so I don’t expect conditions to be as much of a factor here. Hawthorn could regain captain James Sicily, although their backline looked to have more run when they don’t have the 3 talls.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I don’t think Hawthorn should be as short as $1.14 here, North have been hard to play against and should be confident of keeping this game close. The $1.90 line is +34.5 for North which I like and I think unless you’re right in the top 10 you need to be taking the $5.80 and hoping for an upset here.
Collingwood $1.03 v West Coast $12.50
Top v bottom clash here and as you would expect we are getting almost nothing for a Collingwood win at $1.03 here. They keep getting the job done each week and even with teams bringing back the hard tag on Nick Daicos, he still managed 30 touches and a goal last week. I don’t think West Coast have a tagger capable of dealing with him and I’m expecting a big game stats wise from him here. Oscar Allan wont play again for the Eagles this season and with Jake Waterman also out, its hard to see where the Eagles kick a winning score from. It will be interesting to see where and when Collingwood rest players in the run home with top spot basically theirs now.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I cant possibly talk you into thinking West Coast have a chance here, maybe if Collingwood rested half a dozen players but they will stagger when they rest them. But we are getting to that point in the season that if you are not in the top 15 on the leaderboard you probably need to tip West Coast here with the $12.50 on offer and hope for a miracle to stand some chance of catching the top few tipsters. If you’re after a single bet, I don’t think West Coast will kick a big enough score for the total score to be over 172.5
Richmond $6.70 v Adelaide $1.11
Richmond were blown away last week by the Bulldogs but there are still positives to come out of the game for them like the form of Seth Campbell, Sam Banks and Luke Trainor. Adelaide are coming off the bye and have to travel to the MCG, they’ll appreciate that over their last match in the cold and wet of Launceston where they gave up a lead against the Hawks. The crows will want to keep their spot in the top 4, this should be another opportunity to boost their percentage which is already much healthier than 5th placed Hawks and I’m sure Adelaide’s key forwards Riley Thilthorp and Darcy Fogarty would like a big bag each to get themselves back in the form they were in at the beginning of the season.
Mr Pineapple thinks – We are not getting much for Adelaide here at $1.11, I think they win this comfortably but as I’ve mentioned, strategically if you are not in the top 15 you will need to start catching up by picking big priced underdogs. If the weather is good I like this match to go over 172.5
Fremantle $1.27 v St Kilda $3.80
The Dockers are looking to make it 6 wins in a row and really cement their spot in the top 8 whilst a win for St Kilda is really just costing them the chance at lower draft picks at this point as they wont make finals. Caleb Serong is having a Brownlow medal type season, the knock on him previously could be he hasn’t kicked enough goals but he slotted 2 to go with his 35 touches last week. Another man who’s added goal kicking to his game recently is Luke Jackson, he dominated last week with 21 touches and 3 goals albeit against a ruckman playing his first AFL game. The Dockers have class everywhere with Josh Treacy getting back into form and Shai Bolton continuing to be damaging on thr score board. The Saints weren’t disgraced against Collingwood last week, again Wanganeen-Milera was their best with 35 touches, they cannot afford to lose him next season. Jack Macrae still racks up big numbers and Mason Wood was good when forward. With both teams game styles this has unders written all over it, the total points is 165.5 and that’s the best bet of the game in my opinion.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Fremantle should keep rolling here, they’re playing good football and winning and will want to bolster their percentage as that’s all that’s keeping them out of the top 4 at the moment. This isn’t a game where I’m tempted by the price of the underdog.
Punting Pyramid Best Bet
We are on level 2 after North Melbourne won for us last week. I’m liking the Fremantle v St Kilda total points under 165.5 this week. I don’t see St Kilda scoring enough to get this over but Ross knows how to slow the game down and make it low scoring and close for the Saints.
DOG OF THE ROUND
There are some massive underdogs this round but I’m not confident any of them can win, I’d give North the best chance against the Hawks in Tassie if you want one of them at the line. I’ve tipped Carlton this week despite how bad they have been lately I think Michael Voss will have ripped into them and I just don’t trust Port.
Multi worth a pineapple ($50)
Fremantle Win $1.28
Gold Coast -17.5 $1.90
Western Bulldogs 1-39 Win $2.20
Coll/WC Under 172.5 $1.90
$10.05-1