If you’re reading this I’m going to assume you enjoy a punt on the horses of a weekend (or any day that ends in y if you’re like me). But what you need to understand is that there is a big difference in what you might back to win with a traditional bookie compared to UPC’s Showndown tournament’s where it’s player v player format. Previously I had just one strategy but with the inclusion of the 100k+ Jackpot recently, I now employ two very different strategies.
Strategy 1 – The Jackpot Strategy
In order to win the Jackpot you need to pick 10/12 (10% of Jackpot), 11/12 (25% of Jackpot) or a perfect 12/12 for 100% of the Grand Jackpot which currently sits at just over 103k.
If you use my Jackpot strategy don’t expect to win the Showdown 1st prize, you might be asking yourself ‘how can I pick 12/12 and not win both? Well let’s assume 12 favourites win paying $2 each, another punter could be scoring more points for roughies placing where their place odds are higher than the favourites win odds. This strategy is simply picking the horse you think wins each race regardless of the odds.
Strategy 2 – Win The Showdown
This strategy is almost completely opposite to the Jackpot strategy, for example you would never pick a horse paying under $2 for the win because you’ll get more points usually for the other runners just to place and there’s also the chance that the longer odds chances win the race. In fact my general rule is I typically won’t tip anything paying under $5 for the win. Let’s look at the 5 most recent Saturday winning scores, they were 64, 76, 68, 185 and last weeks was 97.8 thanks to Angry Skies winning at $48 which has lifted the average to 98.5 points needed to win the showdown. So working off the past 5 showdowns you need to be scoring an average of 8.1 points in each of the 12 races. That’s equivalent to picking 12/12 winners paying roughly $5.80/$2.30, Nobody has yet picked 12/12 or even 10/12 so you need more value in each tip!
If you’re like me, part of the fun of a UPC Showdown is that you can enjoy watching the races all day from just one entry fee (although I highly suggest having multiple entries). I tend to pick some very high odds roughies in the final few legs so that mathematically you still likely have a live chance of winning compared to for example being 20 points behind the leader with two races to go but you’ve tipped two $5 chances and cannot win.
I could write all day about my strategy, which horses I pick and why but I’ll give you a few tips quickly on how to win the showdown
- Buy multiple entries and cover different horses in each entry, rarely will I have the same tip in multiple of my entries. If you are on a budget and can’t afford multiple 100% entries I believe having 4 x 25% entries covering more outcomes is a smarter strategy.
- Stick to minimum odds of $5 for the win, don’t pick favourites
- Firstly I check to see if there’s any big roughies (I’m talking $30+) I can make a case for winning, if not I’ll rank the horses paying from $10-$30 and go with the one I think represents the most value. On the rare occasion I’ll pick something paying $5-$10 if I really like it.
So there you have it! MrPineapples basic guide on how to win UPC Showdowns! One last tip is if you are someone who likes to buy quick picks, go and edit it and take out any favourites and swap the pick to something paying higher odds.
SATURDAY 17th May Showdown Tips
This weeks showdown includes the later races at Doomben, Scone and Flemington. I’ll be picking a couple of value tips for my ‘win the showndown strategy’ and give you my best bet at shorter odds that I’d be selecting in my ticket for the ‘Jackpot Strategy’ or you could just back it to win on UPCoz.
Flemington Race 6 – Redoutes Night $91/$15
Lim’s Kosciuzsko comes over from Singapore where he’s been winning and placing in Group 1’s albeit over much further. Drawing wide and being 1st up and with 6kg more to carry on all the other runners has me looking elsewhere in this race. Redoutes Night last win was at this track and distance last prep. He’s got a good 2nd up record with a win and 2nd from 3 efforts and with the long Flemington straight to let down I think $91 is way overs and I’m hoping to start the day off with a punt on him at those odds! I think Astero at $23’s is also another good roughie!
Flemington Race 7 – Mostly Cloudy $9/$3.10
Ran a nice race in the Group 1 Sydney Cup last start, only beaten 4L by Arapaho. Has a great record over this distance with 3 wins and 2 seconds from 6 runs. Also all 6 of his wins are on a dry track and it’s rated a good 4 at Flemington at this stage. My main concern is the wide barrier, but if Billy Egan can be positive early, there isn’t a heap of early speed on paper here so he could land just in behind the leaders. He also just beat the current favourite in the Sydney Cup and Ben Melham has drawn the car park on Athabascan so I’m happy to take the $9 on offer over $4.20 on a horse he just beat home a month ago.
Flemington Race 8 – Wings of Song $7.50/$2.70
I tipped Wings of Song last start in a Group 2 race at Morphetville and despite finishing 8th was only 1.9L off winning. With the two favourites Verdad and Chorlton Lane both drawing wider than Wings of Song (barrier 4) if she’s ahead of them at the top of the straight I’m confident with just the 53.5kg she will be hitting the line strongly again and hard to beat. Regal Zues should be right up on pace and in this race at $12 is also good value.
Doomben Race 5 – Cool Archie $10/$3.3
Doomben Race 6 – Sir Delius $2.80
This 4yo’s form in Group 1’s in France has him favourite here, he’s won both trials leading into the weekend and I’ve got him mapped for a economical run better than midfield off the rail on Saturday. He’ll still obviously improve off what he does here and has the most upside, this being just his 7th start, I’m predicting he’ll be hard to catch down the straight in a race where there’s not a lot of good form from our locals for a Group 3. If the French form doesnt stack up I think Craig Williams will have Manzoice in a much better position to win here than last start and Manzoice will appreciate the long straight at Flemington!
Doomben Race 8 – Mazu $10/$3.20
Got back on the winners list last start at Randwick and whenever we have a heavy track, this is the horse that comes to my mind. He’s won 5 of his 8 races in heavy conditions and placed in two other runs. Has drawn barrier 11 and I’m expecting a hot early tempo here with plenty of speed on paper. If Rachel King can find a nice spot just behind the leaders I can see this fella finding the best part of the track down the straight and running over the top of them late. Not many of the horses I have up on pace have shown good form on heavy tracks apart from Hidden Wealth who from barrier 2 should lead and could take catching, with $19/$5 on offer I like Tommy Berrys chances on Hidden Wealth also.
Scone Race 8 – Compelling Truth $10/$3.40
BEST BET – Doomben Race 6 – Sir Delius $2.80
BEST ROUGHIE – Flemington Race 7 – Mostly Cloudy $9/$3.10
FAVOURITE THAT WONT WIN – Doomben Race 8 – Sunshine in Paris $4.60
MEGA MULTI
Sir Delius Win $2.80
Mazu Place $3.20
Cool Archie Place $3.30
Mostly Cloudy Place $3.10
$90-1