MrPineapple’s UPC Strategy
If you’re reading this I’m going to assume you enjoy a punt on the horses of a weekend (or any day that ends in y if you’re like me). But what you need to understand is that there is a big difference in what you might back to win with a traditional bookie compared to UPC’s Showndown tournament’s where it’s player v player format. Previously I had just one strategy but with the inclusion of the 100k+ Jackpot recently, I now employ two very different strategies.
Strategy 1 – The Jackpot Strategy
In order to win the Jackpot you need to pick 10/12 (10% of Jackpot), 11/12 (25% of Jackpot) or a perfect 12/12 for 100% of the Grand Jackpot which currently sits at just over 103k.
If you use my Jackpot strategy don’t expect to win the Showdown 1st prize, you might be asking yourself ‘how can I pick 12/12 and not win both? Well let’s assume 12 favourites win paying $2 each, another punter could be scoring more points for roughies placing where their place odds are higher than the favourites win odds. This strategy is simply picking the horse you think wins each race regardless of the odds.
Strategy 2 – Win The Showdown
This strategy is almost completely opposite to the Jackpot strategy, for example you would never pick a horse paying under $2 for the win because you’ll get more points usually for the other runners just to place and there’s also the chance that the longer odds chances win the race. In fact my general rule is I typically won’t tip anything paying under $5 for the win. Let’s look at the 5 most recent Saturday winning scores, they were 64, 76, 68, 185 and 97. So working off the past 5 showdowns you need to be scoring an average of 8.1 points in each of the 12 races. That’s equivalent to picking 12/12 winners paying roughly $5.80/$2.30, Nobody has yet picked 12/12 or even 10/12 so you need more value in each tip!
If you’re like me, part of the fun of a UPC Showdown is that you can enjoy watching the races all day from just one entry fee (although I highly suggest having multiple entries). I tend to pick some very high odds roughies in the final few legs so that mathematically you still likely have a live chance of winning compared to for example being 20 points behind the leader with two races to go but you’ve tipped two $5 chances and cannot win.
I could write all day about my strategy, which horses I pick and why but I’ll give you a few tips quickly on how to win the showdown
- Buy multiple entries and cover different horses in each entry, rarely will I have the same tip in multiple of my entries. If you are on a budget and can’t afford multiple 100% entries I believe having 4 x 25% entries covering more outcomes is a smarter strategy.
- Stick to minimum odds of $5 for the win, don’t pick favourites
- Firstly I check to see if there’s any big roughies (I’m talking $30+) I can make a case for winning, if not I’ll rank the horses paying from $10-$30 and go with the one I think represents the most value. On the rare occasion I’ll pick something paying $5-$10 if I really like it.
So there you have it! MrPineapples basic guide on how to win UPC Showdowns! One last tip is if you are someone who likes to buy quick picks, go and edit it and take out any favourites and swap the pick to something paying higher odds.
SATURDAY 3rd May Showdown Tips
This weeks showdown includes the later races at Sandown, Randwick and Doomben. I’ll be picking a couple of value tips for my ‘win the showndown strategy’ and give you my best bet at shorter odds that I’d be selecting in my ticket for the ‘Jackpot Strategy’ or you could just back it to win on UPCoz.
Randwick Race 6 – Winning Proposal $11/$3.40
Randwick Race 7 – Bianco Vilano $18/$4.60
Is dropping back from Listed races to a BM88 after very good runs in both the Wagga & Albury cups. Does have to carry 5kg extra but has won on a heavy track before. With the track being rated a heavy 9 at the moment I’m going to be taking a punt on some midfield/back markers who hopefully find the best part of the track down the home straight. The speed is drawn wide here and the two favourites should get onto the rail in behind the speed so I’m happy to be with Bianco Vilano who will likely settle worse than midfield but off the rail and get a chance. This will be his 3rd 2000m run in a row so is rock hard fit for this.
Randwick Race 8 – Zouatica $15/$3.90
I do think the favourite Cool Jakey will be hard to catch here having just won well in heavy conditions in a BM88 at Hawkesbury so that would be my pick for the Jackpot entry however I’m going with the value of Zouatica at $15. Drawn barrier 2 I think he gets the rail run in behind Cool Jakey and is 3/3 on heavy tracks. Stepping out to 1600m is ideal after running well in the Tamworth Cup and winning a listed race two runs back. This is easier and we are getting more for Zouatica to place than Cool Jakey to win.
Randwick Race 9 – Cruel Summer $11/$3.30
Cruel Summer is looking to make it 3 wins on the trot and has a great record on heavy tracks with 5 wins and 4 placings from 12 starts, so we know he will handle the track on Saturday. I like that he can win in different ways, has shown that he can come from the tail or race more handy and I think barrier 10 will give Andrew Adkins options I’d like to see him be positive and settle somewhere better than midfield. I’m against the favourite in Spione here as he’s drawn the carpark and likely settle at the tail and need some luck.
Sandown Race 7 – Typhoon Harmony $13/$3.80
Sandown Race 8 – Elouyou $3.40
This fella is facing his toughest race to date but he bolted in by nearly 3 lengths last start at Moonee Valley in a BM84. He’ll carry 5.5kg less in this BM100 which I think will set it up perfectly for a catch me if you can ride. He’s got a great record over 1400m with 2 wins and 2 placings. If you wanted something with more value, Dashing just won a harder race than this at Warrnambool 1st up so out to 1400m will suit and you’ll get $14/$3.90 for him.
Sandown Race 9 – Hughes $6.50/$2.30
BEST BET – Elouyou $3.40
BEST ROUGHIE – Cruel Summer $11
FAVOURITE THAT WONT WIN – Randwick Race 9 Spione
MEGA MULTI
Elouyou Win $3.40
Cruel Summer Place $3.30
Hughes Place $2.30
$25-1