MrPineapple’s UPC Strategy
If you’re reading this I’m going to assume you enjoy a punt on the horses of a weekend (or any day that ends in y if you’re like me). But what you need to understand is that there is a big difference in what you might back to win with a traditional bookie compared to UPC’s Showndown tournament’s where it’s player v player format. Previously I had just one strategy but with the inclusion of the 100k+ Jackpot recently, I now employ two very different strategies.
Strategy 1 – The Jackpot Strategy
In order to win the Jackpot you need to pick 10/12 (10% of Jackpot), 11/12 (25% of Jackpot) or a perfect 12/12 for 100% of the Grand Jackpot which currently sits at just over 103k.
If you use my Jackpot strategy don’t expect to win the Showdown 1st prize, you might be asking yourself ‘how can I pick 12/12 and not win both? Well let’s assume 12 favourites win paying $2 each, another punter could be scoring more points for roughies placing where their place odds are higher than the favourites win odds. This strategy is simply picking the horse you think wins each race regardless of the odds.
Strategy 2 – Win The Showdown
This strategy is almost completely opposite to the Jackpot strategy, for example you would never pick a horse paying under $2 for the win because you’ll get more points usually for the other runners just to place and there’s also the chance that the longer odds chances win the race. In fact my general rule is I typically won’t tip anything paying under $5 for the win. Let’s look at the 5 most recent Saturday winning scores, they were 58, 64, 76, 68 and last weeks was 185 thanks to Libertad winning at $90 which has lifted the average to 90.2 points needed to win the showdown. So working off the past 5 showdowns you need to be scoring an average of 7.5 points in each of the 12 races. That’s equivalent to picking 12/12 winners paying roughly $5.50/$2. Nobody has yet picked 12/12 or even 10/12 so you need more value in each tip!
If you’re like me, part of the fun of a UPC Showdown is that you can enjoy watching the races all day from just one entry fee (although I highly suggest having multiple entries). I tend to pick some very high odds roughies in the final few legs so that mathematically you still likely have a live chance of winning compared to for example being 20 points behind the leader with two races to go but you’ve tipped two $5 chances and cannot win.
I could write all day about my strategy, which horses I pick and why but I’ll give you a few tips quickly on how to win the showdown
- Buy multiple entries and cover different horses in each entry, rarely will I have the same tip in multiple of my entries. If you are on a budget and can’t afford multiple 100% entries I believe having 4 x 25% entries covering more outcomes is a smarter strategy.
- Stick to minimum odds of $5 for the win, don’t pick favourites
- Firstly I check to see if there’s any big roughies (I’m talking $30+) I can make a case for winning, if not I’ll rank the horses paying from $10-$30 and go with the one I think represents the most value. On the rare occasion I’ll pick something paying $5-$10 if I really like it.
So there you have it! MrPineapples basic guide on how to win UPC Showdowns! One last tip is if you are someone who likes to buy quick picks, go and edit it and take out any favourites and swap the pick to something paying higher odds.
SATURDAY 10th May Showdown Tips
This weeks showdown includes the later races at Caulfield, Gosford and Gold Coast. I’ll be picking a couple of value tips for my ‘win the showndown strategy’ and give you my best bet at shorter odds that I’d be selecting in my ticket for the ‘Jackpot Strategy’ or you could just back it to win on UPCoz.
Caulfield Race 5 – She’s Pretty Rich $26/$7
This Mare has returned in great form looking to make it 3 wins in a row 3rd up here. She contested harder races last prep and it’s always good to stick with a Mare in form! I think she’ll land somewhere midfield off the rail and will be fit enough to manage a wide run. If you wanted something shorter but still decent value Extreme Virtue at $8.50 hasn’t put a foot wrong coming off two trial wins to go with her 3/3 wins last prep and should lead from barrier 4 and have its chance if good enough.
Caulfield Race 7 – Chartres $26/$6
I’m against the favourite here, I think Saban will need luck getting back at the tail and this is a wide open race. I don’t think the expected leaders Too much Caviar and Reset The Jazz will win either and I’ve got Chartres finding a spot off the rail just behind the pace and with the 3kg claim being strong late. He’s contested much harder races, dropping back from a BM100 last start and Open races last prep to a BM84 here in a race where the favourite is a back marker and the leaders are roughies I think it will be something midfield that gets the right run. Ambassadorial would be my pick for your Jackpot strategy as Jye McNeil should get a comfy run just behind the leaders.
Caulfield Race 8 – First Accused $31/$7
I’ve got a soft spot for this horse, being from Tassie, I’ve watched him return to form here winning 2 of our last 3 feature listed races and at least placing in the previous 5. Glenn Stevenson wouldn’t take him over if he didn’t think it would be a good chance to win. Theres a lot of speed on paper and from barrier 11 I think Froggy Newitt lets the leaders go hard early and sitting just behind them, or if he wants to lead and control the race he could do that too. Elouyou will be hard to beat carrying just 53kg and could try to lead start to finish so that would be my Jackpot tip but not my showdown tip at $2.80.
Gosford Race 8 – Depth of Character $4.40/$1.80
I tipped the favourite Know Thyself last start but this is much tougher. Depth of Character was simply too good winning the Group 2 Queensland Guineas by 2L. He’s drawn barrier 5 and should find a position ahead of Know Thyself who’s drawn barrier 11 if he’s not slow away again today. If you wanted something with more value Thunderlips should get up on pace and carrying just the 53kg could run them off their legs at $20/$5. But as long as Depth of Character jumps well and doesn’t get bad luck I think he’s too good for this field.
Gosford Race 9 – Phearson $17/$4.80
The top 3 chances in the market are all 1st up with Accredited favourite at $5.50. If I had to pick something for my Jackpot strategy I’d tip Pereille who we last saw only 1L off winning a Group 3 at Flemington. But I’m looking for value here in an open race. Phearson is 2nd up dropping back in grade here following his 1st up 4th place in the Group 3 TAB Hall Mark Stakes, where he was held up at a crucial stage and still was only 2L off the winner in Mazu. If he can jump well from barrier 2 he should get his chance to win if good enough.
BEST BET – Gosford Race 8 Depth of Character $4.40
BEST ROUGHIE – Caulfield Race 8 First Accused $31/$7
FAVOURITE THAT WONT WIN – Gold Coast Race 9 Pinito $5
MR PINEAPPLE’S MEGA MULTI
Depth of Character Win $4.40
First Accused Place $7
Phearson Place $4.80
$148-1