MrPineapple’s UPC Strategy
If you’re reading this I’m going to assume you enjoy a punt on the horses of a weekend (or any day that ends in y if you’re like me). But what you need to understand is that there is a big difference in what you might back to win with a traditional bookie compared to UPC’s Showndown tournament’s where it’s player v player format. Previously I had just one strategy but with the inclusion of the 100k+ Jackpot recently, I now employ two very different strategies.
Strategy 1 – The Jackpot Strategy
In order to win the Jackpot you need to pick 10/12 (10% of Jackpot), 11/12 (25% of Jackpot) or a perfect 12/12 for 100% of the Grand Jackpot which currently sits at just over 103k.
If you use my Jackpot strategy don’t expect to win the Showdown 1st prize, you might be asking yourself ‘how can I pick 12/12 and not win both? Well let’s assume 12 favourites win paying $2 each, another punter could be scoring more points for roughies placing where their place odds are higher than the favourites win odds. This strategy is simply picking the horse you think wins each race regardless of the odds.
Strategy 2 – Win The Showdown
This strategy is almost completely opposite to the Jackpot strategy, for example you would never pick a horse paying under $2 for the win because you’ll get more points usually for the other runners just to place and there’s also the chance that the longer odds chances win the race. In fact my general rule is I typically won’t tip anything paying under $5 for the win. Let’s look at the 5 most recent Saturday winning scores, they were 58, 64, 76, 68 and 72 for an average of 67.6 points needed to win the showdown. I’ve seen much higher scores needed in the past but my theory is when there are a lot of Group level races in the showdown we don’t see as many big roughies winning. So working off the past 5 showdowns you need to be scoring an average of 5.6 points in each of the 12 races. That’s equivalent to picking 12/12 winners paying roughly $4/$1.60. Nobody has yet picked 12/12 or even 10/12 so you need more value in each tip!
If you’re like me, part of the fun of a UPC Showdown is that you can enjoy watching the races all day from just one entry fee (although I highly suggest having multiple entries). I tend to pick some very high odds roughies in the final few legs so that mathematically you still likely have a live chance of winning compared to for example being 20 points behind the leader with two races to go but you’ve tipped two $5 chances and cannot win.
I could write all day about my strategy, which horses I pick and why but I’ll give you a few tips quickly on how to win the showdown
- Buy multiple entries and cover different horses in each entry, rarely will I have the same tip in multiple of my entries. If you are on a budget and can’t afford multiple 100% entries I believe having 4 x 25% entries covering more outcomes is a smarter strategy.
- Stick to minimum odds of $5 for the win, don’t pick favourites
- Firstly I check to see if there’s any big roughies (I’m talking $30+) I can make a case for winning, if not I’ll rank the horses paying from $10-$30 and go with the one I think represents the most value. On the rare occasion I’ll pick something paying $5-$10 if I really like it.
So there you have it! MrPineapples basic guide on how to win UPC Showdowns! One last tip is if you are someone who likes to buy quick picks, go and edit it and take out any favourites and swap the pick to something paying higher odds.
SATURDAY 3rd May Showdown Tips
This weeks showdown includes the later races at Caulfield, Eagle Farm and Hawkesbury. I’ll be picking a couple of value tips for my ‘win the showndown strategy’ and give you my best bet at shorter odds that I’d be selecting in my ticket for the ‘Jackpot Strategy’ or you could just back it to win on UPCoz.
Caulfield Race 5 – Twin Perfection $18/$4.20
Twin Perfection is 1st up here off two trial wins and has ran well over 1000m, the two solid trials indicate to me they’ve got him ready to fire 1st up. We are getting nice value around $18 and he will be ahead of the two favourites of which Oak Hill could need some luck getting back and trying to run on from barrier 2. I think from barrier 7 Twin Perfection will find a spot better than midfield off the fence so will get its chance if good enough! For my Jackpot entry even though he’s drifted from $4.20 out to $4.80, Fleetwood has the most upside and wasn’t far off winning a Group 3 in his only run last prep
Caulfield Race 8 – Pride of Jenni $2.60
Very interesting choice to send Pride of Jenni to a Listed race where she’s 20 rating points better than her nearest rival. She will carry 61kg’s but she’s a proven Group 1 horse. If the other jockeys let her dictate the race up front I don’t see how she doesn’t win this. It was only two starts ago she won a Group 2 before being a little disappointing in the Australian Cup. I’m thinking maybe they’re going for some easy wins before sending her off to the breeding barn so I’m definately taking her in my Jackpot entry but I’ll be looking elsewhere for value in my ‘win the showdown’ entry to Hellsing who will carry 7kg’s less and be strong late and we’ll get nearly as many points for him just to place. The only other winning chance if Jenni is done would be Regal Zeus who could try to set a solid tempo up front and use take advantage of the weight difference.
Hawkesbury Race 6 – Pisces $19/$5.50
A very open race for the 3yo’s and the track is rated a heavy 8 currently and I’m looking to Kerrin McEvoy to get Pisces back on the winners list. He’s won on heavy before and from barrier 5 I think he can settle a little closer to the speed and get a more economical run. It’s worth a shot at the stumps at $19! For my Jackpot entry I like the chances of Snitzanova, she’s won a trial in heavy conditions and won a Group 2 on a Heavy 8 last prep over the mile! I think she’s got a little more class than the current favourite Candlewick.
Hawkesbury Race 8 – Punch Lane $3.70
Punch Lane was impressive winning by 4L in a BM100 over 1500m last start after drawing the car park that day. From barrier 2 here will get straight to the lead and give them something to chase down again. It’s his first go at the Mile but should be rock hard fit having his 4th run this prep and has won 2/2 in heavy conditions. If you want something at longer odds, I tipped Strait Acer last start and 2nd up, out to the mile and 4kg weight drop are all ticks here for him and you’ll get around $23!
Eagle Farm Race 7 – Imperialist $34/$7
I know it’s a bit of a weird prep, coming back to the mile from the Derby over 2400m compared to the favourite Wonderboy working his way up to the mile but at $34 here’s why I’m happy to take that value. His best races were in the Group 2’s over 1800/2000m where he ran 2nd and 3rd behind Shanwah on both occasions beaten under 2 lengths. It will have been a month since the Derby so a little freshen and drop in distance could be exactly what he needed and from barrier 6 I’m expecting a comfy midfield run. It’s a race I think is wide open with so many different form lines so I’m happy to taking roughies in this race.
BEST BET – Hawkesbury Race 8 – Punch Lane $3.50
BEST ROUGHIE – Caulfield Race 5 – Twin Perfection ew $18/$4.20
FAVOURITE THAT WONT WIN – Hawkesbury Race 9 – Celui $4.50
MEGA MULTI
Punch Lane Win $3.50
Pride of Jenni Win $2.60
Snitzanova Place $3
$27.3-1