MrPineapple’s UPC Strategy
If you’re reading this I’m going to assume you enjoy a punt on the horses of a weekend (or any day that ends in y if you’re like me). But what you need to understand is that there is a big difference in what you might back to win with a traditional bookie compared to UPC’s Showndown tournament’s where it’s player v player format. Previously I had just one strategy but with the inclusion of the 100k+ Jackpot recently, I now employ two very different strategies.
Strategy 1 – The Jackpot Strategy
In order to win the Jackpot you need to pick 10/12 (10% of Jackpot), 11/12 (25% of Jackpot) or a perfect 12/12 for 100% of the Grand Jackpot which currently sits at just over 103k.
If you use my Jackpot strategy don’t expect to win the Showdown 1st prize, you might be asking yourself ‘how can I pick 12/12 and not win both? Well let’s assume 12 favourites win paying $2 each, another punter could be scoring more points for roughies placing where their place odds are higher than the favourites win odds. This strategy is simply picking the horse you think wins each race regardless of the odds.
Strategy 2 – Win The Showdown
This strategy is almost completely opposite to the Jackpot strategy, for example you would never pick a horse paying under $2 for the win because you’ll get more points usually for the other runners just to place and there’s also the chance that the longer odds chances win the race. In fact my general rule is I typically won’t tip anything paying under $5 for the win. Let’s look at the 5 most recent Saturday winning scores, they were 58, 64, 76, 68 and 72 for an average of 67.6 points needed to win the showdown. I’ve seen much higher scores needed in the past but my theory is when there are a lot of Group level races in the showdown we don’t see as many big roughies winning. So working off the past 5 showdowns you need to be scoring an average of 5.6 points in each of the 12 races. That’s equivalent to picking 12/12 winners paying roughly $4/$1.60. Nobody has yet picked 12/12 or even 10/12 so you need more value in each tip!
If you’re like me, part of the fun of a UPC Showdown is that you can enjoy watching the races all day from just one entry fee (although I highly suggest having multiple entries). I tend to pick some very high odds roughies in the final few legs so that mathematically you still likely have a live chance of winning compared to for example being 20 points behind the leader with two races to go but you’ve tipped two $5 chances and cannot win.
I could write all day about my strategy and why I tip horses I do, but I’ll break it down quickly
- Buy multiple entries and cover different horses in each entry, rarely will I have the same tip in multiple of my entries. If you are on a budget and can’t afford multiple 100% entries I believe having 4 x 25% entries covering more outcomes is a smarter strategy.
- Stick to minimum odds of $5 for the win, don’t pick favourites
- Firstly I check to see if there’s any big roughies (I’m talking $30+) I can make a case for winning, if not I’ll rank the horses paying from $10-$30 and go with the one I think represents the most value. On the rare occasion I’ll pick something paying $5-$10 if I really like it.
So there you have it! MrPineapples basic guide on how to win UPC Showdowns! One last tip is if you are someone who likes to buy quick picks, go and edit it and take out any favourites and swap the pick to something paying higher odds.
SATURDAY 5th April Showdown Tips
Our showdown this weekend includes races 5-10 at Randwick and Caulfield. At Caulfield the rail will be out 9m and currently it’s expected to be a good 4, so I’m tipping based on the assumption that the track will play fairly and the horses that are good enough will win. Randwick on the other hand is currently expected to be a heavy 8 (but looking like it could be upgraded to a soft 7) with the rail in true position so I think we’ll see a lot more roughies winning as the jockeys figure out the fastest part of the straight as the day goes on. I’m expecting a higher score will be needed this weekend than the 67.6 average we’ve seen in the previous 5 Saturday showdowns.
CAULFIELD TIPS
Race 5 – 2400m Elvis Thurgood Galilee Final (L)
Jackpot Strategy Tip – Statuario $2.25
He’s already beaten the key dangers in this race in Red Aces, Rapid Cheval and Politely Dun last start at Moonee Valley in the Group 2 Alister Clarke Stakes. He’s drawn well in barrier 4 and hit the line well over 2040m last start suggesting to me the step up to 2400m will suit. He should get a beautiful run in behind the leaders and is clearly the one to beat and is my best bet of the day!
Showdown Strategy Tip – Dolce Dior $18
Seeing as Statuario has already beaten the 3 main dangers in his previous start I’m looking at different form lines for something to beat him. Dolce Dior’s form might not jump out at you but she’s been crying out for further and broke through to win her maiden at Bendigo over 2200m last start. The extra 200m here will suit and she ran good closing sectionals that day and provides nice value currently at $18/$4.40
Race 6 – 2000m Bert Bryant Hcp (BM80)
Jackpot Strategy Tip – My Brothers Keeper $5.50
I’m against the drifting favourite here in Kings Valley, who’s drawn awkwardly in barrier 11 and is already out to $3.70 after opening at $3.10. My Brothers Keeper can settle somewhere midfield with a cosy run and the Caulfield track will suit better than Moonee Valley last start where he was only 1.5L off winning a BM100, has to carry more weight dropping sharply back in grade here but should be rock hard fit now with 4 runs this prep under his belt.
Showdown Strategy Tip – Mozu Marcassin $15/$4.20
Finished off last prep with consecutive wins over 2200m and 2400m and won 1st up this prep at Sandown over 1800m with impressive closing sectionals. The extra 200m today and natural improvement 2nd up has him right in contention at big odds to make it 4 wins in a row.
Race 7 – 1200m Evergreen Turf Geoff Murphy Hcp
Jackpot Strategy Tip – Lovely Cut $6/$2.30
Resumes here on the back of a trial win and was only was only 2.7L off the winner in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas last prep. May need some luck from barrier 1 if she doesn’t jump well as most of the speed is drawn out wide but if those leaders have to work too hard early and Beau Mertens can find the gaps down the straight she’ll be very hard to beat.
Showdown Strategy Tip – Madrina $17/$4.80
A complete forgive last start when she was stuck wide on pace. Should be at peak fitness now and with the 2kg claim of Jett Stanley I’m predicting this will be a catch me if you can ride carrying only 52.5kg. I’m confident that at the top of the straight she’ll be in front and at $17/$4.80 is worth a punt to see if she can burn the candle at both ends here.
Race 8 – 2000m Easter Cup (Group 3)
Jackpot Strategy Tip – Poison Chalice $5.50/$2.25
Was good last start beaten only 2.7L by Marble Arch in the Group 2 at Flemington. Draws better today from barrier 4 and out to 2000m will suit. The only time he’s ran over 2000m he was only 1.3L off Berkeley Square and just behind Globe who would both win this race.
Showdown Strategy Tip – Basilinna $17/$5
Will be giving the leaders a big head start here having drawn the car park but showed 1st up with the win at Moonee Valley that she’ll be flying home late. Will only be carrying 54kg and with more straight to work with at Caulfield is great value at $17/$5!
Race 9 – 1400m Sportsbet Victoria Hcp (Group 3)
Jackpot Strategy Tip – Superazi $7/$2.70
Returned with a great run in the Group 1 Newmarket and has since won a trial, the step up to 1400m here is ideal having ran top 2 in 10 of his 18 runs over this trip. Gets in well at the weights with 54.5kg and should be too good for this field.
Showdown Strategy Tip – Golden Mile $18/$5
A Group 1 caliber horse, he’s drawn well in barrier 3 and should get a cosy run better than midfield on the rail. Has the class to win this and he won his only race at Caulfield in the past. Great value at $18/$5.
Race 10 – 1400m Robert Taranto (BM84)
Jackpot Strategy Tip – Modown $7/$2.60
Back in grade to a Benchmark race here and has won twice and placed 3rd from his previous three 2nd up efforts. Gets some weight relief with the 2kg claim and can settle somewhere nice midfield from barrier 3 and with any luck will be tough to beat.
Showdown Strategy Tip – Rhinoceros $23/$6
Almost won the Bairnsdale Cup last start and will be right up on pace here in a race with plenty of speed on paper. Is rock hard fit and I can see him sticking on and being somewhere close come the line, might find it hard to win but we’re getting $6 for him just to place here! Worth a crack at those odds.
RANDWICK TIPS
I’ll begin by highlighting the fact we will be likely racing on a heavy 8 at Randwick, which often throws up some unexpected results, so I’ve done the form accordingly looking to horses who have proven themselves in these conditions previously.
Race 5 – 1400m Country Championships Final
Jackpot Strategy Tip – Know Thyself $4/$1.75
Got the job done easily as a $1.45 favourite on a heavy 10 last start by 2.3L at Scone and has a great record in heavy conditions highlighted by his 3rd placing only missing by 1.1L in a Group 3 last prep. Gallant Star does look hard to beat but the extra 3kg’s he has to carry here has me leaning towards Know Thyself.
Showdown Strategy Tip – Intervarsity $8/$2.70
Gets Damien Lane on board and should be able to lead on the rail and control the race. I’m confident that by race 5, jockeys of Damien Lanes caliber will have identified by now where the best part of the track is and with Intervarsity most likely leading at the top of the straight he could be hard to run down. Carrying only 54kg and being 2/2 on soft tracks are all ticks for me.
Race 6 – 1400m Inglis Sires (Group 1)
Jackpot Strategy Tip – Vinrock $4.60/$1.65
Was excellent leading start to finish in the VRC Sires Group 2 over 1400m and draws barrier 1 today. So the fact he’s already proven himself over the 1400m compared to those coming through the Golden Slipper over 1200m which is why I’ve got him as my top selection. Will he handle the heavy? Well it’s hard to tell with these 2yo’s with not much exposed form to go off as none of the field have been seen on a heavy track yet.
Showdown Strategy Tip – Buffalo $18/$4
Wasn’t far away in the Group 2’s leading up to today before being too smart for them at Newcastle winning last start. I’m keen on his chances here at big odds because he looks like he wants more distance and the 1400m will suit. If Zac Purton can be a little more positive on him from barrier 4 he could run over the top of them late.
Race 7 – 1200m T J Smith Stakes (Group 1)
Jackpot Strategy Tip – Briasa $4.50/$1.85
Only went down by 1.8L last start in the Group 1 The Galaxy and drew wide that day. Will jump from barrier 3 today and has won his only race on a heavy track. If Tyler Schiller can land him somewhere forward of midfield I think he has the closing sectionals to run away from them down the straight as he should get an economical run.
Showdown Strategy Tip – Sunshine in Paris $9/$2.90
She was excellent with not much luck finishing only 1.4L off winning the Group 1 Canterbury Stakes last start. She loves this distance winning 5 and placing twice from the 9 runs over 1200m. Two of the likely on pace runners in Overpass and I Am Me have never ran a place on a heavy track so I think the winner of this race will be something coming from midfield or the tail which is where Sunshine in Paris will end up from barrier 11.
Race 8 – 1600m Doncaster Miles (Group 1)
Jackpot Strategy Tip – Linebacker $6.50/$2.50
The Randwick Guineas winner will carry just 49kg’s here and has since won a trial. I’m always keen on horses carrying light weight in heavy conditions and I think the wide barrier won’t be too much of an issue as Zac Lloyd should be able to keep him out of trouble and if he’s good enough can chase down the leaders late. Could it be a repeat of last year where Celestial Legend won with 49kg’s? He won’t be winning it again I’m confident of that.
Showdown Strategy Tip – Another Wil $10/$3.50
This fella is just my favourite horse. He wasn’t beaten far in the All Star Mile and can win in all conditions. He should be rock hard fit being 3rd up but with trials in between races, he’ll run a strong 1600m. Again like Linebacker, later in the day I can see winners coming wide at the top the of the straight finding the better part of the track if the rail chops up.
Race 9 – 2400m Atc Australian Derby (Group 1)
Jackpot Strategy Tip – Aeliena $3.30/$1.55
Hard to compare form lines between the two favourites, with Willydoit smashing them in the NZ Derby now testing himself against the best here. Aeliena was so unlucky not to win the Rosehill Guineas, she was the best horse in that race but just couldn’t get a run early enough and I think she’ll run out a strong 2400m. She won’t spend a cent from barrier 1 let’s just hope Damien Lane can find the gaps when needed and it’s not a horror watch again.
Showdown Strategy Tip – Pocketing $31/$7.50
I always like to have some longer odds chances in the final races of the showdown so that mathematically I could still be in contention! Pocketing just showed us last start he handles the heavy, winning the Group 2 Tulloch over 2000m. He’s on the quick back up but at odds of $31 in a race where most horses are running 2400m on a heavy track for the time he’s worth a punt!
Race 10 – 1200m P J Bell Stakes (Group 3)
Jackpot Strategy Tip – Zeitung $6.50/$2.15
Finished off strongly in the Fireball a few weeks ago and has since won a trial by over 4L. Stepping out to 1200m is going to suit, she won a Group 3 over 1400m and was only 2.3L off winning a Group 1 over 1600m last prep and is also a winner on a heavy track! All ticks for me so expect to see her hitting the line strongly again!
Showdown Strategy Tip – Island Dec $16/$4
Found it a little too tough at Group 1 level last start but draws barrier 3, can be more positive here and her best form has been on soft/heavy tracks where she hasn’t lost! She’s won a trial since running last in the Group 1 Surround and I think she’s the best value of the race at $16.
BEST BET – Caulfield R5 – Statuario $2.25
BEST ROUGHIE – Randwick R10 – Island Dec $16/$4
FAVOURITE THAT WONT WIN – Caulfield R6 Kings Valley $3.70
MR PINEAPPLES MEGA MULTI
Statuario Win $2.25 (Caulfield Race 5)
Superazi Win $7 (Caulfield Race 9)
My Brothers Keeper Win $5.50 (Caulfield Race 6)
Zeitung Place $2.25 (Randwick Race 10)
$195-1