Round 24 review
The final round of the season saw two upsets with Port Adelaide getting it done one last time for Ken Hinkley and Travis Boak over the Suns, costing the Suns their top 4 finish, whilst Fremantle booked their spot in finals with a win over the Bulldogs that ended their season. Assumethecrown topped the round with 14.55 points.
We now enter the finals, which means with only 4 matches there is no bonus 5 points anymore and with the competition so close, it means realistically if you are not in the top 10 now, there aren’t going to be enough points left even with underdogs winning for you to catch up. Having said that, I personally am tipping all the underdogs in regular tipping competitions so I think we are in for the most exciting finals series in recent memory.
Qualifying Final Tips
Adelaide $1.60 v Collingwood $2.35
We get a re-match at the same venue as just two weeks ago when we saw the pies have over double the inside 50’s compared to the Crows (71-36) but it was Adelaide who came away winners by just a couple of points. The home crowd will be fierce after what transpired last time these teams met, Adelaide will be without Izak Rankine for his homophobic slur to a Pies player so I’m expecting the intensity of this game to go up another level. The week off will have benefited the Pies more with their older list and I think if you had played that game 2 weeks ago, 100 times, Collingwood would have won 95 of them given all the dominance they had in key areas apart from the score board. If it’s dry and they bring in Mason Cox that could solve a few of their problems with having so many high ball entries inside 50 with Cox providing a bigger target. For Adelaide, they need to do better at stoppage and contest because it will be a big ask for their defenders to defend 70+ inside 50’s again.
Mr Pineapple thinks – The Pies rested players and managed minutes with finals in mind, having seen these teams meet so recently, every aspect of that game statistically should have had Collingwood winning. The Crows don’t have finals experience and I think Collingwood win this. My bets for this game will be Collingwood +8.5 and the Total Score UNDER 160.5
Geelong $1.68 v Brisbane $2.20
A lot of people think this years Premiers will come from the winner of this match up. Brisbane has beaten Geelong both games this season, they match up well and have the wood over Geelong, going back even to when they beat the Cats in last years prelim final. Geelongs team since that game has changed a lot and also their youngsters have another season of experience. Lachie Neale back for Brisbane is a massive in, they have the deepest midfield in the competition but their Achilles heel has been their goal kicking, they’re the most inaccurate team in the competition, however if they can kick straight, I don’t see anyone beating them. Whether Geelong use taggers like they have in the past will be interesting. In the past the query had been about Brisbane winning away from home but since last year, they have a great record at the MCG and are 4-1 there this year.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I don’t know why Brisbane aren’t favourites, Geelon’s last 6 matches of the season were against bottom 8 teams so perhaps it looks like they are going better than what they actually are. With Brisbanes recent dominance over Geelong I’m sticking with the Lions again. My bets for this match are Brisbane +6.5 and Total Score UNDER 171.5
GWS Giants $1.77 v Hawthorn $2.05
It’s do or die here for both teams and their teams are very contrasting, with GWS having much older more experienced players with finals experience vs the Hawks young exciting team who can beat anyone on the day. GWS are likely to bring back in both Jake Stringer and Jesse Hogan which will ultimately be the difference or a total disaster as Stringer is coming back off his 3rd hamstring injury of the season and it’s been reported Hogan’s foot injury is still causing him pain but by playing he can’t make it any worse so he won’t be 100%. The Hawks could welcome back Josh Weddle which if he’s match fit, is massive for their ball movement. Both teams match up pretty evenly but the Giants have the edge in the midfield where Tom Green and Finn Callaghan should win their fair share of clearances.
Mr Pineapple thinks – If I knew more about how fit and ready several of GWS’s stars were I’d be more confident in them at home, however I think they’re just going to be that unlucky team who got injuries at the wrong time of the year. You don’t want to be going into an elimination final underdone. If the Hawks win this, they can potentially play all their finals in Melbourne and I think we’ll see big games out of their young stars especially if they get off to a good start. My bets for this match are Hawthorn +3.5 and Total Points OVER 169.5
Fremantle $1.52 v Gold Coast Suns $2.55
Gold Coast cost themselves their top 4 spot with that loss against Port Adelaide, but then put Essendon to the sword to regain some confidence. It’s a historic day for the club playing in their first ever final. Fremantle surprised everyone and looked amazing booking their finals spot with a great win over the Western Bulldogs, their 3 tall forwards all
Booting 3 goals each. They get the home ground advantage here and because of that extra match the Suns are coming off the shortest break of anyone in week 1 of the finals. There will be heartbreak for one team here and in particular a club legend will play their last game for whoever loses with Nat Fyfe for Freo and David Swallow for the Suns retiring at the end of the season. I am giving the Suns the edge in the Midfield with Anderson and Rowell just so dominant this season and that could be the difference.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I can see why Fremantle are favourites, in form and at home, but the inclusion of Daniel Rioli off that broken leg gave them that dangerous ball user again last week and I think the Suns could cause an upset here. These are probably everyone’s pick as the two least likely teams to win the flag. My bets for this match will be Gold Coast +11.5 and Total Score OVER 165.5
Multi worth a Pineapple
Adelaide v Collingwood UNDER 160.5 $1.90
Hawthorn +3.5 Win $1.90
Brisbane + 6.5 Win $1.90
$6.85-1
