Round 6 Review
One of the more crazier but entertaining rounds of football we’ve had in a while. Only 4 of the games saw the favourites win. Our dog of the week Collingwood got up but it was a tough week for our bets after that as we saw Richmond paying $8.27 give the Suns their 1st loss of the season and West Coast only went down by 2 points to the Bombers at huge odds. Anomaly Nick topped this round with 18.36, I met Nick at UPC’s tournament of Champions and he’s one of UPC’s most successful punters, a genuine maths wizard who’s won probably the most UPC tournaments so far and this week shot him up the overall leaderboard, well done Nick! I’m feeling very confident that this week the AFL is more predictable and I think we’ll see a number of punters getting the 5 bonus points for perfect rounds.
ROUND 7 TIPS
Melbourne $1.26 v Richmond $3.80
I didn’t think these two teams would be both coming off a win here, but they are. Melbourne who couldn’t score, swung the axe at selection, dropping their two best forwards on paper and changed up the way they moved the ball and it worked, beating Fremantle. Richmond’s more senior players just lead from the front perfectly with players like Tom Lynch, Tim Tarranto and Jacob Hopper setting great examples for the younger brigade on how to win.
Mr Pineapple thinks – If Melbourne hadn’t won last week I’d be saying take the value on the Tigers here, but seeing it all finally click make me think the Demons should be winning this. If you wanted more value Melbourne 1-39 looks good!
Collingwood $1.20 v Essendon $4.40
The Bombers let us down last week, they came back and won by 2 points against West Coast but didn’t ever look like clearing the -25.5 line. They’ve lost Draper for the season with a snapped achilles and I don’t know if West Coast just somehow dragged them down to their level but the bombers didn’t look good (apart from 2m Peter up forward). Collingwood on the other hand dismantled the reigning premiers as I tipped but it was a thrashing by 10 goals. Knew premiership favourites? I think so. In the past this Anzac game has been close when they shouldn’t have been but this Collingwood look back to their flag winning best. Just put your money on Nick Daicos for the best on ground medal, actually take the $3.75 on him for this years Brownlow because he’ll be $1.50 by the end of season, freak!
Mr Pineapple thinks – Collingwood will win this Anzac Day match, I have zero doubt. If you want more value I’d be taking them -28.5 instead of the 1-39 because if they flog Brisbane by 10 goals, imagine what they’re about to do to Essendon.
Fremantle $1.82 v Adelaide $2
This is a match where I don’t know how Adelaide are underdogs, they’ve lost twice, one being by 1 point against Gold Coast and the other giving up a decent lead against Geelong, there’s no shame in either of those. They’ve lost Fogarty for a few weeks but that just means they’ll target Thilthorpe more often, not the worst outcome when you have to kick it to the #1 rated forward in the league. Fremantle just handed Melbourne the 1st win of their season and you just don’t know what Fremantle will show up. They will have the home ground advantage here but Adelaide like high paced, high scoring and I don’t see Fremantle being able to handle that.
Mr Pineapple thinks – With Dan Curtain a perfect replacement for Fogarty and Fremantle heavily relying on Serong, Brayshaw and Traecy, I think Adelaide keep winning here. I’m surprised Fremantle are favourites so it’s a no brainer to take the value on the Crows, they’re my dog of the round!
St Kilda $2.55 v Brisbane $1.50
Brisbane lowered their colours to Collingwood last week and id said, they’re just doing enough to bank wins early in the season without being great. That might be the wake up call they needed to find their top gear and play that way for 4 quarters now. St Kilda were smashed against the Bulldogs from stoppage and that’s a strength of Brisbane’s as well. They will have saints will struggle against the very top teams because they are relying on their younger players to all play well in the same game whereas Brisbane just have A-Graders everywhere.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I thought Brisbane would be around $1.30 here so I’m very happy to take $1.50 and they’ll definately be in my multi’s at those odds. Lions to win comfortably
Port Adelaide $1.14 v North Melbourne $5.60
Port have made me look silly two weeks in a row now, I underestimated the return of Butters which gave Ken Hinkley the option of moving captain Connor Rozee to the half back which has proven a genius move. They beat Sydney who I’ve now got a question mark over because I still don’t think Port will match it with the top 6 teams on a weekly basis. North Melbourne are going backwards, they have been embarrassed in their last two matches against Carlton and Gold Coast, they just can’t defend. Their off season recruits Darling up forward and Caleb Daniel down back have been terrible. I don’t think the vibes will be high on their flight back from Adelaide this weekend.
Mr Pineapple thinks – As much as I hate seeing Port at $1.14, until North give us an indication they won’t lose by 10 goals I just can’t tip them. If you are way behind in the leaderboard this is a game where you might take the $5.60 but I’m hopeful of 8/8 this week so give me Port!
GWS $1.53 v Western Bulldogs $2.45
I really want to see Jesse Hogan back after he missed last week for me to be super confident on GWS here. It was a bad game to watch against Adelaide in the wet but it’s one in happy to put a line through, they’re better than that. The Bulldogs were excellent against St Kilda, captain Marcus Bontempelli just slotted straight back in with a best on ground return. The win was soured but an ugly knee injury to young gun Sam Darcy though, with their star forward set to miss 3-4 months and with Jamara Ugal-Hagen zero chance to play for the Dogs again, the load now falls onto Aaron Naughtons shoulders up forward. He did look much better when Darcy went down with the extra supply.
Mr Pineapple thinks – If Hogan plays, ill take GWS, he’s so important to their structure, if he’s still out, let me watch the Bont just put the dogs on his back again and say follow me fellas!
Gold Coast $1.53 v Sydney $2.55
Gold Coast are back at home, last season they barely lost there, so I’m forgiving last weeks loss to Richmond. I garuantee Dimma wont be letting them play like that again. The main reason I’m confident Gold Coast get the job done here though is that Sydney are not the same team that finished on top last season. Warner isn’t doing what he did last year, they’re missing both their main forwards and Heeney can only do so much on his own with Gulden still out. Until they get their best team back they’re very beatable.
Mr Pineapple thinks – The Suns don’t lose at home, they have a fit and healthy list unlike Sydney so the $1.53 is good value for me if you just put a line through last weeks loss to Richmond. Suns to bounce back and win comfortably!
Carlton $2.50 v Geelong $1.52
This is another game where I can’t believe the odds! Yes Carlton fans might think they’re back after two big wins, but they were against West Coast and North Melbourne! Geelong just won the most exciting game of the season so far against Hawthorn with the Dash Brothers Bailey Smith and Max Holmes racking them up in the middle, allowing Patty Dangerfield to dominate in the forward 50. They haven’t even needed Jeremy Cameron to do much such has been how good Dangerfield has been when not needed in the middle. The cats are purring along nicely, beating the best teams. This will be the reality test Carlton need now after a couple of moral boosting wins. Can their game style hold up against one of the best teams. Will they get McKay back, he should be available after missing a week for concussion. They’ll need to win games they aren’t favourites in from here to make finals.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I don’t see Geelong dropping this one, but I also think Carlton aren’t as bad as we all teased them about after losing their first 4 matches. At home I think they can make it a close game, but I like Geelong 1-39 and I’ll be happily taking the $1.52 here.
Hawthorn $1.03 v West Coast $12.50
I thought the Hawks should have beaten Geelong, they missed a lot of chances in that 2nd quarter but it was a very entertaining game. As a team they run so hard both with the footy and when defending, something West Coast don’t do. Nash will miss weeks for his coat hanger that knocked Miers out, Ginnivan kicked 4 in the VFL so expect him to come straight back in. West Coast were good against a fumbly Essendon but they will not handle the Hawks running power here. With the form captain Oscar Allan was in before being ‘managed/dropped’ I’m not sure if his inclusion again this week will be a good thing or not. The Hawks have the defenders to cover all of West Coast’s talls either way.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Similar to the North game, if you’re way down the leaderboard and need some roughies you probably have to take a punt on the Eagles at $12.50, I don’t think they can win and I want those 5 bonus points for a perfect round so I’m taking Hawks, but we are only getting $1.03 for the hawks here.
PUT YOUR HOUSE ON IT – I love it when bookies just give me free money. Free money is the best. Brisbane to win at $1.50 or -12.5 at $1.90 is free money. They will not lose to St Kilda this weekend. Brisbane have the best list and got a reality check against the best team at the moment last weekend. Watch them bounce back here with the extra 2 days rest.
DOG OF THE ROUND – It has to be Adelaide! How are they not favourites against a Fremantle who have been underwhelming this season. I get Adelaide are away from home and lost Fogarty but they have a replacement forward who was already in the team playing out of position in Dan Curtain and all prior form points to Adelaide winning this.
MULTI WORTH A PINEAPPLE
Brisbane Win $1.50
Collingwood -28.5 Win $1.90
Geelong Win $1.52
Gold Coast Win $1.53
$6.62-1
