Round 7 Review
This round threw up a couple of upsets and both Blake_02 and hailtheking were a GWS win away from a perfect round. Our big bet on Brisbane was an easy watch as they destroyed St Kilda whilst our multi won 3/4 legs with only a Carlton upset over Geelong costing us. Some teams are really establishing themselves as premiership hopes such as Collingwood, Brisbane, Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs whilst teams like Geelong, GWS and Adelaide are going to give us headaches when it comes to tipping, throw in the fact that Carlton and Melbourne seemed to have turned a corner and are playing good footy again. Round 8 looks to me like the toughest round of the season to tip with 7 of the 9 games close to 50/50’s for me.
ROUND 8 TIPS
Essendon $1.42 v North Melbourne $2.85
The bombers were actually leading the game against Collingwood at one stage in the 3rd quarter before the flag favourites showed they have another gear that other teams just dont have. Nate Caddy and Peter Wright were good up forward and Zack Merrett is consistant as always and they’ll all need to play well this week so they dont drop a game they should win on paper. North were fired up coming up against the player they wasted their #1 pick on in Jason Horne-Francis and nearly pinched the game against Port Adelaide, it was an improvement on what they had been dishing up in previous weeks, but the loss of Paul Curtis for 3 weeks for what I think everyone in the public agrees was just a good chase down tackle is going to hurt North as he was equal 5th in the Coleman on 18 goals.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I dont trust either of these teams, I would tip Essendon in a normal tipping competition but the value of North at $2.85 is tempting here, I wish Paul Curtis was playing as that would make my decision alot easier. If you are a fair way off the leaders at the moment take North Melbourne, if you are somewhere in the top 15 you could play it safe and pick the Bombers.
St Kilda $2.10 v Fremantle $1.73
Fremantle are so frustrating, are they good, are they pretenders, do they just like showing up every 2nd week? They surprised me by beating Adelaide last week but it was at home. Brayshaw and Serong were huge combining for 69 disposals whilst Josh Treacy continues to show why hes one of the best forwards in the competition, currently 2nd in the Coleman medal. Its games like this week they should be making sure they bank wins on if they want to play finals. St Kilda copped a big spray from coach Ross Lyon which makes me nervous because I think he will get a response from his players. The problem is they lack stars, outside of Wanganeen-Milera its just a bunch of role players at the moment.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I think this will be close, expect the saints to come out hard early, they’ve lead at quarter time in most games this season but I think that Fremantle’s stars will do enough to get them over the line, so I’m happy to take $1.73 here
Western Bulldogs $1.40 v Port Adelaide $2.95
Despite only beating North Melbourne by 9 points last week my early season prediction of Port sliding down the ladder hasnt done my tipping much good the last 3 weeks. I underestimated or forgot just how good Zac Butters is, having him back has allowed Rozee to go down back and Jason Horne-Francis is a gun, but they are playing away this week against a Bulldogs team that are demanding the rest of the competition respect them. Even with the injury list the dogs have, its just next man up mentality and its working. Port’s strength is their midfield but there arent any midfields going better than the bulldogs right now. It would be nice to have Sam Darcy up forward but on the flipside, the bulldogs get so many inside 50’s and now the opposition dont know who the target will be hence players like Harmes popping up and kicking 4.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Imagine being able to just rest Bontempelli in the 3rd quarter because you’re beating up GWS’s midfield so badly. The dogs are the real deal and with troops to come back its scary to think how good they’ll be at the end of year. I still dont think Port will beat the better teams but they are playing better. I’m taking the Bulldogs at home, if you wanted more value the 1-39 option will provide that.
Adelaide $1.52 v Carlton $2.55
I wish these teams would just make their mind up, are they bad? Are they good? How are we meant to know what we are going to get from either of these teams. The home ground factor helps Adelaide here but last week showed they do miss Fogarty and Thilthorp played through a pretty gruesome finger injury which surely will be sore if he plays this week. Carlton played the kind of footy we probably expected from them pre-season and I can see that with the little changes the coach has made to their game style is now allowing them to play like they should with the stars they have at their disposal. Harry McKay playing well is a massive game changer to how dangerous their forward line looks.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I think you have to take the value on Carlton here, if you just erase that opening round loss to Richmond from your memory they havent ever been beaten by much and now look to have gotten their season back on track. This is a 50/50 game so $2.55 for the Blues is the kind of value I’m happy to snap up.
Collingwood $1.64 v Geelong $2.25
Flagpies anyone? They look scary, when you’ve got 36 year old Steele Sidebottom in career best form just running amok alongside the competitions best player in Nick Daicos and their captain most likely returning this week to sure up the defence, I dont know who Collingwood wont start favourites against. Geelong showed that when their experienced A-Graders dont put the team on their back they are vulnerable. Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron cant win games for them every week. There arent many holes in Collingwoods game at the moment so unless they start to get injuries I’m not tipping against them.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I was expecting the Pies to be around $1.50 here so I’ll take $1.64 all day, they’ll be in my multi and Geelong have just shown a few times now like against St Kilda and Carlton that they arent that consistent top 4 caliber team.
West Coast $2.95 v Melbourne $1.40
They say a week is a long time in football, well its been a long 2 weeks for both these teams for different reasons. Melbourne looked like a shambles and close to sacking their coach a fortnight ago before wins against Fremantle and Richmond has given the group some belief back. The coach swung the axe at selection and having Richmond and West Coast back to back come at a good time to just release some of that pressure the Demons were feeling. West Coast’s leaders held a crisis meeting themselves this week, thats how bad the standards are there at the moment. It looks from the outside like theyre playing their captain in defence to punish him for potentially seeking a trade away from the club whilst the two players the coach brought with him from Richmond cant beleive how poor the training standards are among their new team mates.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Two weeks ago I would have said take the value on West Coast at home but I’d want $4+ here to suggest that. Perhaps if you’re way behind in the leaderboard its a game where you can chase some value because realistically, Melbourne still arent a good team they’ve just lifted for their coach when he needed it. Its just hard to see West Coast beating anyone at the moment though so for that reason I’m just taking the $1.40 on the Demons and hoping Harley Reid provides us with some highlights to make the game watchable.
Sydney $2.35 v GWS $1.60
If the Swans lose this game I’m happy to put a line through their season, they were again beaten comfortably last week by Gold Coast and have only two wins so far. I know they’ve had some injuries but they look a shadow of the team who finished on top of the ladder last season and played in a grand final. GWS have a better list and just need to tweak a few things after being beaten recently by very good teams. I think this will be a game where GWS will make a big statement to show clearly who the best team in Sydney are. We’ve seen alot this season, teams with talented lists come off a loss or two and make some small changes and remind us how good they are and I think this week it will be the Giants doing that.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I can see GWS still potentially being a top 4 side, whilst I dont think Sydney will make finals. I cant believe the bookies have GWS only a -9.5 favourite here, this will be one of my bigger bets of the weekend as I think they will win this comfortably.
Hawthorn $1.06 v Richmond $9.50
It wouldnt be the worst thing being a Richmond fan right now, clearly at the beginning of a re-build but winning some games and staying in others unlike teams like West Coast and North Melbourne who are meant to be ahead but copping hidings regularly. There leaders like Tom Lynch, Tim Tarranto, Jacob Hopper and Nick Vlastuin are doing a great job of trying their best despite knowing they wont play finals and they have some really good young players as you’d expect with the high draft picks they just had. The Hawks remain one of the most exciting teams to watch and are well coached to not drop games against the bottom teams. Jack Gunston is turning back the clock and every player seems to know their role, they’ll be hard to beat.
Mr Pineapple thinks – In a normal tipping competition this one is a no-brainer, you’d have to tip the hawks, but with how UPC reward you based on odds, if you are way down the leaderboard you might consider taking the $9.50 on offer here to try and catch back up. If I’m still eligible for a perfect round when this game starts I’m taking the Hawks though but i dont think it will be a 50+ point win like against West Coast last week. If you want some value maybe go Hawthorn 1-39.
Brisbane $1.53 v Gold Coast $2.50
This is the game I’m most looking forward to watching. Theres never been a clash between these rivals where both teams have had this much expectation on them in the same season. I’m a big fan of what Gold Coast are doing right now, I have both of these teams finishing top 4. I’ve mentioned all year that Gold Coast have stars across every line and Ben King is leading the Coleman. There arent many teams that I think have better midfields than Brisbane but the Suns is at least even if not better. Add in Noble and Rioli across half back, those additions have been crucial to the Suns improvement this year and Jed Walter and Bailey Humphry are dangerous forward if King doesnt kick a bag.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’m taking the value on Gold Coast here, I think it will be the game of the round and the Suns will want to win this to prove they have taken that next step this season. Its a 50/50 for me so the fact we are getting $2.50 makes this an easy decision for me. Either team to win by under 24.5 would also be a nice bet because this should be a cracker.
PUT YOUR HOUSE ON IT – GWS to return to form with a big win against Sydney. The line is only -9.5 for $1.90. The Swans dont look anywhere near the team they were last season and if we just look at what they are dishing up in 2025, I cant see how they win this.
DOG OF THE ROUND – I’m tipping Gold Coast to beat Brisbane in normal tipping competitions so I’m 100% making them my dog of the round. If you’re looking for a single bet, you can get the Suns +10.5 at the $1.90 line which I like because I think that extra 10 points could be crucial in what should be a great game.
MULTI WORTH A PINEAPPLE
Bulldogs Win $1.40
GWS Win $1.60
Collingwood Win $1.64
Fremantle Win $1.63
$6-1
