Round 16 Review
We saw a lot of bonus points in round 16 as all the favourites won for the first time this season. Of the 4 punters who got every match correct it was rfc4life that had the best margin and score of 14.35. For the first time this year we will see the top 9 play the bottom 9 so there’s a fair chance we see another round where all the favourite’s win and punters earn the 5 bonus points!
ROUND 17 TIPS
North Melbourne $6.50 v Western Bulldogs $1.11
The Bulldogs overcame Sydney on what looked more like an ice skating surface than a football oval last week and North Melbourne took a step backwards in Launceston losing by 85 points to the Hawks. No team smashes the bottom 6 like the Doggies do so this doesn’t look great for the Kangaroos. The Bulldogs are getting great service out of their role players with Joel Freijah having his best game with 24 touches and 4 goals, Matt Kennedy continuing his great season with another 2 goals whilst Ryley Sanders had 25 touches and keeps showing why he was pick 6 in the draft. For North Melbourne Colby McKercher is racking them up after being moved back to his half back role with 34 touches last week while the only other positive was Nick Larkey getting back to form with 5 goals. North will lose Goerge Wardlaw to concussion.
Mr Pineapple thinks – The $1.90 line is -42.5 for the Bulldogs and I think they’ll cover that easily here. If you’re way down on the leaderboard I still think this is a round where its more likely that you’ll get a perfect round and 5 bonus points so I’m starting the round off with an easy win to the Bulldogs.
Carlton $4.25 v Collingwood $1.22
Oh Carlton fans, it must be very hard supporting this club, in a match where I thought Voss would get a response it turned out to be exactly the opposite and even the leaders just never tried from the opening bounce against Port last week. Your season is over and now we will see if the players want their coach sacked by how badly they play for the last 8 rounds and coming up against an almost unbeatable Collingwood team isn’t what they need right now. Collingwood could rest some players and still win here, they showed last week they are giving minutes to some lesser known players but they are still playng their role. Nick Daicos went untagged as I predicted and was best on ground and Carlton don’t have anyone to stop him so expect much of the same this week.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I cant believe the $1.90 line is only -26.5 for Collingwood here, this will be a 60+ point win for the Pies, I don’t care how far down the leaderboard you are, you should be getting $6+ for Carlton not $4.25
West Coast $4 v GWS $1.25
The Giants are coming off of the bye and will travel west to play an Eagles team who were winning at quarter and half time against Collingwood. The Giants have been up and down all season having beaten the top 3 teams but dropping games they shouldn’t so this is a danger game. Tom McCarthy was drafted a few weeks ago and has probably been the Eagles best player in his first 2 games, what a find he has been. Liam Baker just gives his all (35 touches last week) and Harley Reid might not be racking up highlight moments but he’s playing a much more consistent team orientated game now. The Giants mids and forwards could get a hold of the Eagles with Jesse Hogan having a good record against them and Aaron Cadman starting to show why he was the number 1 draft pick.
Mr Pineapple thinks – This is a danger game and one of the few matches this round where I could talk you into taking the value on the underdog. I’m personally going to tip GWS and hope for 5 bonus points but outside of the Sydney v Fremantle match, this your best chance of getting some value to catch up to the leaders.
Essendon $3.60 v Gold Coast $1.30
The Suns should have won by more against Melbourne last week, they are a team who can put big scores on teams quickly and Essendon managed to do the unthinkable and lose 3 key players to injury during their bye week last week. Noah Anderson is a sneaky chance for the Brownlow, he keeps racking up huge numbers and I’m expecting Ben King to kick a big bag this week. The bombers will rely heavily on Zack Merrett, Nic Martin and the leaders they have left as players are dropping like flies and its hard to see how they don’t open the flood gates at some point during this game.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Again I’m unsure how Gold Coast aren’t $1.10 here and the $1.90 line is only -22.5, this might be the bet of the round as firstly, there’s no way Essendon win this with the players they have out and I’m expecting the Suns to win by 60+
Geelong $1.03 v Richmond $12.50
Richmond had exceeded expectations early on during the season but as often happens to young teams, they’re starting to tire and will be without spearhead Tom Lynch for the next 5 matches to make things worse. Dion Prestia has been good since returning and Sam Banks continues his best ever season with 25 touches and a goal last week but its hard to see where they’ll score enough goals to be anywhere near the Cats. Jeremy Cameron is leading the coleman and will be hoping to end the round further ahead while Bailey Smith is likely leading the Brownlow and would be hoping to add some more votes this weekend.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I cant talk you into tipping Richmond here, they just wont win but if you’re looking for a single bet, I think the total score will be under 176.5 because of the Tigers lacking the ability to score here. Jeremy Cameron to kick 4+ goals is paying $2.10 and Bailey Smith to have 30+ is $1.53 and should be in your same game multi’s.
Brisbane $1.18 v Port Adelaide $4.80
Port Adelaide have not been as bad as I thought they would be lately but when you look at who they’ve beaten, its not team of the calibre of the Lions. They do have a good midfield with Zac Butters, Jason Horne Francis, Connor Rozee and Miles Bergman all in good form and finally Mitch Georgiades is providing a target up forward but the Lions strength is also their mids. Logan Morris has shown he will be a star with 10 goals in his last 2 matches and Brisbane are coming off the bye and will be playing at home.
Mr Pineapple thinks – The $1.90 line is -28.5 for Brisbane, I think they will win but I would be looking at Brisbane 1-39 for $2.10 as Port have been good enough lately to keep this match from at least not being a blow out. Brisbane’s inaccuracy has cost them matches and also kept others closer than they should be. Will Ashcroft and Dayne Zorko to both get 25+ disposals multi’s to $2.40 and they have both been racking them up.
St Kilda $3.15 v Hawthorn $1.35
The Hawks flexed their muscle dominating North in Tassie last week and look to be back to playing the Hokball we saw last season and at the start of this year. Nick Watson kicked a goal worthy of goal of the year and was his electric best last week. Marbiol Chol has been excellent this year and Jack Gunston just kicked a career high 7 goals at the age of 36, I’m back on the Hawks bandwagon and they still have Will Day to return later this season. St Kilda gave Fremantle a scare only going down by 12 points again with Wanganeen-Milera dominating with his elite kicking finishing with 28 touches and a goal while it was very much a Ross Lyon type game where everyone just played their role well.
Mr Pineapple thinks – The Hawks are flying again and will want a top 4 spot, so they need to be winning games like this and trying to get their percentage up with how close that 4th spot on the ladder will be. I’m happy with $1.35 and the line is only -18.5 which I think the Hawks will cover. Jack Gunston to kick 2+ is $1.60 and I’d have that in any same game multi’s.
Sydney $1.65 v Fremantle $2.25
This is the most interesting game of the round, Fremantle have won 6 games in a row and are 6th on the ladder compared to Sydney who are 12th yet the Swans start favourites here due to all the players they’ve recently gotten back. What concerns me is if this does get played at the SCG its going to be another slippery dangerous game for players. The surface is unplayable so I wouldn’t be surprised if this is moved venues. This will be the game I believe will separate a lot of punters in who gets 8/9 and who gets 9/9 and 5 bonus points. I said Sydney wont make finals but will ruin some teams chances in the run home, Gulden and Papley make a huge difference and Isaac Heeney kicked 5 goals from midfield last week to be back to his best. Luke Jackson continues to have a break out season and Josh Traecy hit the score board again.
Mr Pineapple thinks – If the game is played on that ice ring at the SCG I’m siding with the swans, as their key players are all smalls who will handle those conditions better than Fremantle who have relied on bigs like Luke Jackon and Josh Traecy. Isaac Heeny, Chad Warner, Errol Gulden and Tom Papley will get the Swans over the line after almost beating the Bulldogs in these exact conditions last week.
Adelaide $1.24 v Melbourne $4.10
Melbourne cant make finals and I bet things are about to get bad for them in this last part of the season when their older leaders have nothing to play for. Adelaide on the other hand are gearing up for their first finals appearance in a while and will want that double chance that comes with the top 4 finish. Dan Curtain had his best match of his short career with 2 goals and 26 touches whilst Riley Thilthorpe had another bag of 5 goals and Steven May will have his hands full if he gets that match up. I cant see anywhere on the field where Melbourne have an advantage and travelling to Adelaide with nothing to play for would make me nervous if I were a Dee’s supporter.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Adelaide have the best percentage in the league and the line here is only -25.5 which I think the Crows will cover by half time. One of the Crows forwards will kick a bag because Melbourne wont be able to stop Thilthorpe, Fogarty and Tex Walker and I think Dawson and Rankine will rack up high disposals as Petracca and Oliver aren’t working hard defensively with nothing to play for.
Punting Pyramid Best Bet
We are onto level 3 after our total points under in the Fremantle/Se won lst week! Level 3 is Gold Coast to cover the -22.5 line against a Bombers team who have just lost another 3 key players, it looks easy money. Gold Coast’s mids will smash the Bombers and their forward line is dangerous, the knock on the Suns has been they sometimes give up big scores but Essendon don’t have the players available to hurt the Suns here.
DOG OF THE ROUND – The obvious choice would be Fremantle as the most likely underdog to win but I like what West Coast have been doing recently, I know they haven’t been winning but to the eye, they seem to be playing much better. They’re at home and GWS have dropped games they should win this season. It’s a round I think all the favourites win but if you’re feeling lucky, Fremantle or the Eagles could cause upsets.
MULTI WORTH A PINEAPPLE
Gold Coast -22.5 Win $1.90
Adelaide -25.5 Win $1.90
Collingwood -26.5 Win $1.90
$6.85-1
