Round 17 Review
As I predicted there would be a lot of punters earning 5 bonus points for a perfect round – I gave you all the 9 winners last week and managed to top the round with the equal highest score of 9.79 with 15 others and a margin of 1 point as all the favourites won. We really are at the pointy end now and this round I think you can make a case for either team in 6 of the 9 matches!
ROUND 18 TIPS
Carlton $4.25 v Brisbane $1.22
Carlton are a mess and it looks like Michael Voss has lost the players. All their stars are out of form, they even made 6 changes last week and I’d expect more again this week. Losing by 56 points to the Pies will have hurt them and it doesn’t get any easier this week against the 2nd placed Lions. Brisbane overcame an injured Port Adelaide and the only positive for Carlton is that Brisbane aren’t blowing teams away. Zac Bailey had his best ever game with 26 touches and 5 goals and someone will kick a bag again this week.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Not interested in Carlton at $4.25, also being the first game of the round you’d want some hope of earning 5 bonus points so there’s not much to say here apart from tip Brisbane, get the win and move on.
Gold Coast $2.10 v Collingwood $1.75
The Suns only got going in the last quarter when they were really impressive, but for the first 3 quarters the Bombers were matching it with them. Luckily they’re at home which is a big help but they’ll need some huge games from Noah Anderson, Matt Rowell, Ben King and Bailey Humphrey if they are going to beat top of the ladder Collingwood. The pies just keep banking wins and should get back Steele Sidebottom, Bobby Hill, Lachie Schultz but could rest a couple also. Tom Mitchell came back for his first game of the year last week and Nick Daicos had another best on ground performance and the Pies look unbeatable.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’m surprised we are getting $1.75 here I was expecting around $1.40, so this makes this game very easy for me to tip Collingwood. You aren’t getting enough value on the Gold Coast to justify taking the underdog here. The Pies would have to rest a lot of players to change my mind.
Western Bulldogs $1.62 v Adelaide $2.30
This might be the match of the round, both teams are flying and hoping for a top 4 finish. Adelaide made hard work of Melbourne last week but it was their kicking inside 50 that hurt them, I think if they played that game 10 times they would have won by 40+ 9/10 times so most parts of their game is in good order. Rankine had his best game for the year with 5 goals and will need closer attention this week. Aaron Naughton got back into form and is enjoying getting the 2nd best defender as teams try to nullify Sam Darcy without any success. This will be a high scoring match so over 179.5 looks likely.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I am just tipping this as I would in a normal competition as we aren’t getting enough value on the underdog so I think at home the Bulldogs will get up. I think their best players match up well against the crows and the dogs will win in a shoot out.
GWS $2.10 v Geelong $1.73
GWS looked good last week but it was against West Coast. They move the ball so quickly and rested a couple last week. If Jesse Hogan returns that will be a huge help. The Cats should welcome back Bailey Smith and they defend so well although GWS did beat them last time they met earlier this year. I think that’s why we are getting such good odds on Geelong to win here but I think they’ll have learnt from that last game and play much better this time around.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’m going with Geelong here, I just think overall they are a more consistent team than the Giants and we are getting basically the same odds. It will be close, if you want more value take the cats 1-39
Richmond $2.95 v Essendon $1.40
Richmond are stuttering to the end of the season and lose Noah Balta to his curfew as this is a night game. They’ll also lose number 1 draft pick Sam Lalor and it’s hard to see them win another game this season. The Bombers were good for 3 quarters against the Suns, led by captain Zac Merrett who was back in the middle where he should be. Nate Caddy showed why he’s going to be a star and could have his best game yet this weekend against a Tigers team who are giving up big scores.
Mr Pineapple thinks – You couldn’t tip Richmond again this season with the players they have out now so I think the Bombers will get this done easily. They’ve matched it with some good teams for parts of games and this will be much easier.
Fremantle $1.90 v Hawthorn $1.90
The closest match odds wise but I don’t see why, maybe being in WA but the Hawks should be favourites here. Fremantle broke their winning streak with a loss to Sydney and I don’t like them against top 6 teams. They’ll need massive games from their stars Serong, Brayshaw, Treacy and Bolton to win this. The Hawks did what they needed to do against St Kilda and I think they match up well against Fremantle. They beat them last year and they’ll need to win games like this to finish in the top 4.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Give me the Hawks, I was expecting them to be around $1.70 so I’m very happy to get $1.90 here. I think their forward line will be too good for Fremantles backs.
Melbourne $1.22 v North Melbourne $4.20
Melbourne were good in patches against Adelaide, particularly their Defence where Steven May dominated and they just intercepted everything all day. North were good at the beginning for their 100 year celebration game against the Dogs with Nick Larkey kicking 4 in the first quarter. Colby McKercher continues to rack them up off the half back and is also hitting the score board. This will be a close game but if Steven May shuts Larkey down that will go a long way to helping Melbourne win.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I think Melbourne will win, their Defence is still solid but I need some points to catch up to the top few punters so this is a game where I’ll be taking the value on North Melbourne. It should be close, Melbourne 1-39 would be a good bet but I’ll be hoping for an upset, if North play how they did in the first quarter last week it’s possible.
St Kilda $2.40 v Sydney $1.58
The Swans are back, but they do lose Tom Papley again which hurts. They need to win every game from here on in to make finals. St Kilda can’t make finals but manage to keep some games close and I think this will be low scoring so I’ll be taking the under 167.5 as I think both teams forwards lines struggle. Sydney will get plenty of goals from their mids and will want to keep that slim finals hope alive.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’m happy to take $1.58 on the Swans here, they are back playing more like the team that finished on top of the ladder last season so they should be winning against the Saints.
Port Adelaide $1.11 v West Coast $6.50
West Coast couldn’t handle the run of GWS last week and have to travel to Adelaide to take on Port who have been going well lately. They might have a few outs but teams aren’t out yet however I think Mitch Georgiades is finishing the season very well up forward and the midfield of Butters, Rozee and Horne-Francis will just be too good for the Eagles who really only have Harley Reid as a threat in the middle.
Mr Pineapple thinks – We aren’t getting much for Port to win but they’re going well enough at the moment that they should be winning this at home by 40+, Mitch Georgiades could kick 5+
Punting Pyramid Best Bet
We are on a roll with our Gold Coast to cover the line last week getting up taking us to level 4! I’m going against them this week though with Collingwood paying $1.75 to win, I think the Pies look unbeatable at the moment, they will get players back also this week who will be fresh. They look better than the Flagpies of 2023!
DOG OF THE ROUND –
North Melbourne have the best chance of the higher paying underdogs this round. They showed their best footy is good against the Bulldogs early last week and Melbourne have often kicked themselves out of games.
MULTI WORTH A PINEAPPLE
Collingwood Win $1.75
Geelong Win $1.73
Brisbane -26.5 Win $1.90
Essendon -15.5 Win $1.90
$10.92-1
