Round 23 review
Eagleputt topped the round with 11.87, getting only the Melbourne v Hawthorn and Collingwood v Adelaide games wrong while overall leader tonymcconachie wasn’t far behind with 11.72 missing just the upset of GWS over Gold Coast. There were just the two upsets with Brisbane and GWS winning as underdogs and whilst we go into the final round of the home and away season, the tipping competition includes finals so we still have plenty of chances to climb the leaderboard, however this will be the last round where you’ll see such big price differences in the odds, so if you are way down the leaderboard you need to take into account that during finals you won’t be getting as many opportunities to pick up big scores off of underdogs. Finals also do not include the chance for 5 bonus points for a perfect round.
Round 24 Tips
Essendon $3.90 v Carlton $1.26
Both of these teams will be wanting the season to end and hope they can make it to the finish without anymore injuries. Harry McKay will have some confidence back after booting 7 goals last week while Essendon captain Zac Merrett returns from a broken hand. Carlton were big winners by 54 points against Port Adelaide last week while the Bombers only just went down by 2 points to St Kilda.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Carlton will win this, they still have a lot of their experienced players in who are good enough to smash the bottom couple of teams, I’m expecting a big game from Patrick Cripps and you could see Harry kick another bag. If you’re way down the leaderboard this could be a game you have to tip the underdog and pray for an upset though.
Collingwood $1.35 v Melbourne $3.20
The Pies need to win by a bit to have any chance of securing a top 4 finish and double chance in finals, they’ll still need some other results to go their way also. They may have lost by 3 points to Adelaide last week but they had an incredible 71 inside 50’s (over double the Crows) so if they have anywhere need that against Melbourne they’ll win comfortably. Melbournes defenders were caught in between intercepting and defending last week, letting Jack Gunston have a crazy good day with 7 goals and they’ll need another solid tagging effort on Nick Daicos like last time to stand any chance. They let themselves down against the Hawks and given this is the last round and they have nothing to play for and their caretaker coach has said he won’t be putting his hand up for the senior job, I can see Melbourne letting this blow out to a big loss.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Collingwood were still good last week and I’m fully expecting them to come out swinging knowing they need a big win to boost percentage and have a shot at top 4, pies to cover the -19.5 line also.
Port Adelaide $3.90 v Gold Coast $1.26
Ken Hinkley’s last match as Port coach will be an emotional one for him, he’s been able to get responses from his team in situations where he can get them fired up, but it’s been clear it’s not ‘his team’ this season with Josh Carr having basically been coaching them already. They have too many players out to worry a Gold Coast team who know they need to win both remaining games by big margins to secure that top 4 finish and double chance. The Suns would have to be in the best position to get that 4th spot and Damien Hardwick should have them ready to take advantage of that for these last two matches that they win comfortably.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Gold Coast should run right over the top of Port and cover the -24.5 line, I can see Port trying hard for the first quarter but Gold Coast dominating late once the game is out of Port’s reach.
North Melbourne $6 v Adelaide $1.16
Adelaide can secure the minor premiership with a win here, despite losing Izak Rankine for the rest of season after he was found guilty of homophobic abuse last week, they really need to figure out who is going to play his role. The Crows are ranked #1 in all the defensive measures and attack but surprisingly #18 in the ball movement from defense to attack, so this week is the last chance they have to fine tune that aspect before finals. North were good against Richmond in Tassie last week where Harry Sheezel accumulated the equal most ever disposals in a match with 54. They’ll want to end their season with a performance to give their fans some hope but are facing the hardest test in football at the moment against the Crows.
Mr Pineapple thinks – The Crows simply win this but I’m more interested to see who goes into the role left vacant by Izak Rankine. The only question here is Crows by how much.
Richmond $15 v Geelong $1.02
Geelong are measuring up in most of the key statistics from champion data as one of the most likely to go all the way in September. They’ve had a soft draw leading into finals and were focused on getting Jeremy Cameron to his 100 goals but that hit a speed bump last week when he went goalless against Sydney. He’ll be looking for one last big haul before finals and should get plenty of chances here, expect the Cats to be looking for him at every opportunity. It is a tough way for Richmond to end their season but it’s been a very promising one overall and they’ll just want to see good games out of sone of their young players to remind them what they have to look forward to for the future.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’ll be having something on Jeremy Cameron to kick 7+, Geelong win this for sure, some punters might mathematically need to take these huge underdogs but I just can’t see the Tigers finishing within 50 points.
West Coast $4.25 v Sydney $1.22
I thought the Swans were going to do better against Geelong last week but they weren’t able to move the ball dangerously through the middle like the week before against Brisbane. Sydney have tweaked a few things and a game against West Coast who are missing a lot of their best players will be a comfortable way for the Swans to practice their new game plan one more time before the off season. Isaac Heeney could kick another bag from the midfield whilst mid season number 1 pick McCarthy will likely rack up big numbers again.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Being the last round I can see a big win for Sydney here, they will play attacking football that they showed via high handball, quick movement through the corridor against Brisbane and should cover the -28.5 line easily.
GWS $1.18 v St Kilda $4.80
Everyone involved at St Kilda, especially the fans will be ecstatic at the re-signing of Wanganeen-Milera who became the AFL’s first 2 million dollar player this week. I think it will give the entire team a boost and despite only beating Essendon by 2 points last week, the Saints have now won 4 in a row, if they could pull off an upset to finish the season they will go into 2026 will so much optimism given the expected off season trades that are rumored. The Giants just need all their players healthy and will be hoping for no injuries, they’re assured of playing finals and were impressive beating the Suns last week. Harry Rowston had his best game with 4 goals and Finn Callaghan was at his best with 29 disposals.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I feel like the high the Saints are riding currently could make this a close game. If you need a lot of points to catch up this is a potential upset game I think GWS still win, but I’d be taking the 1-39 option for better value.
Western Bulldogs $1.33 v Fremantle $3.35
The match of the round with the most at stake, this is the first final for the Bulldogs at home to Fremantle. The equation is simple, whoever loses, misses out on finals. Despite Fremantle winning 11 of their last 13 matches they rank 9th in both attack and defense whilst the Bulldogs have a very good midfield and attacking profile, with their weakness defense. I think the fact that this is played at Marvel is a huge advantage for the dogs, they also didn’t have Bontempelli last time these teams played and Fremantles ruck duo of Darcy and Jackson were not a factor in last weeks flogging to Brisbane and Tim English has been running hard forward and getting used, I don’t think either Darcy or Jackson will be able to cover him defensively. The Bulldogs could welcome back Adam Treloar and look to found an exciting father son in Croft last week and I think they will have better success of these two teams if they make finals.
Mr Pineapple thinks – If you need to make up points you almost need to take the value on Fremantle here, but I think the Bulldogs just have way to many weapons, their list of absolute A-Grade talent that is in form like Bontempelli, Richard’s, Darcy, Naughton etc just goes on and on. If you wanted some more value for a single bet you could take the Dogs 1-39 as Fremantle’s effort should be at a season high given its do or die now.
Brisbane $1.58 v Hawthorn $2.40
The other match of the round that has huge implications on who gets double chances in finals, both teams are flying at the moment however it’s the Hawks who have been winning more consistently. Jack Gunston made Steven May look silly last week with 7 goals, he sits 2nd on the Coleman list and considering he’s missed 3 games and still had his best ever goal tally for a season he’s surely in the All-Australian team, a special achievement given his age. Brisbanes best has looked perhaps the best of anyone, it’s been how often they show that level that’s raised questions. They will still be without Lachie Neale but their midfield is so deep, it just means you can bank on Zac Bailey to get around 25 touches and a goal now. This is the hardest game to tip for the round and I suspect whoever loses and misses the double chances, probably will struggle to win the flag from outside the top 4.
Mr Pineapple thinks – given this is pretty much a 50/50, I’m taking the value on the Hawks. They’re showing more consistent form and I can see more room for improvement from a lot of their list so I don’t think we have seen them at their best yet. They’re one of the most exciting teams that I’m looking forward to watching in finals and I think if they win this they’re a definite chance of making a Grand Final.
Gold Coast $1.03 v Essendon $12
The extra game that everyone thought would mean nothing to the rest of the competition almost certainly now looks to be a must watch for teams like Collingwood and Hawthorn. By this stage if all things go as the odds would suggest, Gold Coast will know exactly how much they need to beat Essendon by to snatch a top 4 position from the hands of either Collingwood or Hawthorn. Who knows how many players Essendon will have available for this match, it’s not looking good for them as their depth has been tested more so than anyone else. If they decide to rest some players on the quick back up for this game that means nothing for them it could see Gold Coast make up a heap of percentage needed to get that double chance.
Mr Pineapple thinks – This is a no brainer, Gold Coast are winning this, there’s zero chance they choke with what’s at stake, the only way I could suggest tipping Essendon is if the Suns lose a bunch of players to injury in their match against Port Adelaide.
DOG OF THE ROUND
Hawthorn are my Dog of the Round, I think they will win so the fact we are getting $2.40 I’m happy to take them or give them the +9.5 head start at the $1.90 line.
PUNTING PYRAMID BEST BET
Sydney should cover the -28.5 line against the Eagles pretty comfortably. It should be an open attacking game from both teams given it means nothing and Sydney have the talent to make the Eagles pay. The margin could blow out big late.
MULTI WORTH A PINEAPPLE
Carlton -26.5 Win $1.90
Gold Coast -24.5 (v Port) Win $1.90
GWS 1-39 Win $2.20
$7.94-1
