Round 3 Review
Last weeks tips were spot on! If you put your house on Gold Coast like I suggested and backed the $6.60-1 multi you’ll of had a very profitable weekend, you’re welcome!
The over 188.5 total on Adelaide v North Melbourne also won, making it a perfect round!
Robjmarotta had the highest score of 10.66 only getting the Carlton v Bulldogs game wrong, Carlton aren’t just letting their own fans down now but costing Rob the bonus 5 points! I’m surprised nobody got the 5 bonus points in the $100 competition this round as we saw 7/8 favourites winning.
Round 4 Preview
Collingwood $1.48 v Carlton $2.67
I feel for Carlton supporters right now, especially Dan Gorringe, if you watch Dan Does Footy you’ll notice his blue hair, I also feel for the punters tipping them. Their game plan of winning contests and stoppages just isn’t what is winning you games of football in 2025. They can’t move the ball quickly, they can’t run out games and their forward line doesn’t have the dangerous feeling to it like it once did. When they bomb it in high and don’t have the pressure at ground level teams are finding it easy to transition from defence to attack and no team does that better by hand than Collingwood. Coming off a bye teams have generally struggled but I think in Collingwoods case with an old list, it’s actually going to suit them.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Whilst I can see this being close-ish, just because it’s Collingwood v Carlton, the Blues have the worst 2nd halves in the league this year and Collingwood are always clutch late in games. If you want a single bet Collingwood 1-39 seems the way to go and I’m taking the $1.48 on the pies to continue adding to Carlton’s misery.
Geelong $1.21 v Melbourne $4.50
It’s easy to have knee jerk reactions in football, Geelong coming off two close losses isn’t exactly ringing alarm bells for me like it is for others though. They still almost beat last years premiers last week. I’m more concerned about Melbourne, their once feared midfield have now gone three matches in a row -12, -12, -16 at stoppages and they can’t score. Even their captain has come out at publicly said their leaders need to be better, but Petracca and Oliver made it clear last season they don’t even want to be there! Both teams should be fired up to make amends from previous weeks but I think Geelong’s aspirations are to make top 4 whilst at the current moment, Melbourne will be wanting to stay out of the bottom 4. Tom Stewart is also a chance to return and should he be fit to play, I’m extremely confident Geelong win here.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Whilst I don’t see Geelong blowing Melbourne away (the line is -27.5) I’m confident they will get the win. I think the best single bet here is Geelong 1-39 and I’m happy enough to take the $1.21 because I just can’t see a Melbourne team that are in a bit of a shambles turning things around at the moment.
Gold Coast $1.74 v Adelaide $2.10
At the start of the season I wouldn’t have thought I’d be looking forward to this game as much as I currently am. It’s match of the round for me! What’s interesting is Adelaide are currently 4th favourite to win the flag whilst somehow Gold Coast who are favourites here are 10th favourite at $21! It just shows how much of a better team Gold Coast are at home. This is the first big test for both clubs in 2025 and both posses elite midfields and forwards. I give Gold Coast the advantage in the midfield where Matt Rowell is becoming an absolute beast of the competition adding outside run to his previous inside ball winning ability, he was the best player of the round last week. Adelaide’s forward line is the best in the competition with Thilthorpe, Walker and Fogarty (Rachele misses a few weeks now with broken ribs) and should their midfield be able to supply them like they have in previous, they will keep kicking massive scores. Expect this to be an entertaining high scoring game.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I can see either team winning this but with Rachele out for the Crows and Gold Coast at home, I’m leaning towards the Suns winning here in a close game. Expect to see the Suns $21 odds of winning the flag significantly shorten if they win this, there’s no way they should be ranked the 10th most likely team to win the premiership this season!
Richmond $8.70 v Brisbane $1.07
Brisbane have overcome slow starts in all their matches so far this season but gotten the job done remaining undefeated. It’s normal for teams who play off in the Grand Final to have slow starts given they simply have less time to prepare, so expect to see Brisbane really start to blow teams away now they’ve gotten some games under their belt. Richmond are now playing like we expected pre season, only showing glimpses and moments of promise. If they were touched up by 72 and 82 points by mid tier teams like Port Adelaide, imagine what the leagues reigning premiers are about to do to them. The line is -47.5 for Brisbane, I know we aren’t getting much in return at $1.07, but there is zero chance Richmond win this.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Take the $1.07 and hope for a perfect round for the bonus 5 points, Lions will win this by 60+ points so back them to win -47.5, take the easy win tipping them here and we move on.
North Melbourne $2.50 v Sydney $1.54
North Melbourne are showing signs of improvement on last year, they gave Melbourne a touch up and showed grit against a powerful Adelaide team, showing that they will win games against teams outside of top 10 caliber. Larkey is such a key player forward for them and if their midfield all play well on the day they could beat teams in that 5-10th ranking, of which I have Sydney in that tier. Harry Sheezel has not started the season well, being ranked outside the top 200 players currently so if he gets back to his best this is a danger game for Sydney. The Swans should be beating North Melbourne, this time last season we would be seeing the Swans paying $1.10 to win this match. They’re coming off a bye, with a close win over Fremantle and a close loss to Brisbane before that, I still think they will be too good for an improving North Melbourne.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Whilst it could seem tempting to go with the underdog here, I personally would have Sydney priced at around $1.35/$1.40 so I’m happy to take the $1.54, if you want to place a single bet, Swans by 1-39 will give you some more value. Sydney to win in a close game.
GWS $1.03 v West Coast $12.60
I gave West Coast a chance last week in the Derby, but I’m happy to concede I was wrong, they stink. Another disappointing performance from Harley Reid but more surprisingly their captain Oscar Allen who had no impact has got me really worried about West Coast’s season. I think they go backwards this year and GWS have gotten last years Coleman medalist back, Hogan returned last week with 4 goals in difficult conditions in Tasmania, a slimmer Jake Stringer made his debut for GWS and will only get better as he learns their system. GWS’s midfield will give the Eagles on ballers who don’t run defensively a big lesson and plenty of quality supply to their dangerous forward line.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I know I’ve said there can be upsets early in the season and we aren’t getting anything in return for GWS at $1.03, but away from home I think GWS’s midfield and forwards will have a day out. This could be a 100+ point flogging. If I’m 5/5 by Sunday 1.10pm there is no way I’m hoping for a miracle risking the bonus 5 points for a perfect round and tipping against GWS here.
Port Adelaide $1.52 v St Kilda $2.55
This is the match where I think the bookies have the odds around the wrong way! I’ve tipped St Kilda to win in regular tipping competitions. They’ve beaten Geelong and smashed Richmond and have damaging half backs who use the ball efficiently especially in Wangerneen-Milera. Sinclair had a game high 40 possessions and Jack McCrae keeps racking them up with another 31 possessions and better kicking efficiency last week. Port lost as favourites to Essendon last week and I’ve said I see them sliding out of the 8 this year. Their forward line doesn’t look dangerous with only Georgiades who isn’t an A-Grade forward as a key target and with recruit Jack Lukosius being out injured they’re going to rely heavily on goals from their midfield.
Mr Pineapple thinks – The only thing going for Port here is they’re at home. St Kilda have shown me a much better game style and players willing to put defensive pressure on than what Port Adelaide have so far this season. You can get St Kilda +11.5 for $1.90 which looks a great bet and I’m taking them at $2.55 to win this match!
Fremantle $1.62 v Western Bulldogs $2.31
Fremantle finally got a win on the board last week albeit against West Coast. Their midfield returned to form with Caleb Serong winning his 4th Glendinning-Allen medal and Brayshaw racking up 29 disposals. Treacy (3 goals) and Amiss (4 goals) were potent up forward and they’re at home again against a Western Bulldogs team who are starting to regain some players with Liam Jones back to sure up their defence. His return will be so important in nullifying probably Treacy and the dogs have unearthed some very handy players in the absence of Bontempelli and Treloar, with Davidson getting his chance in the midfield with 31 disposals last week, whilst number 6 pick from the 2024 draft Ryley Sanders had his career best game with 24 touches and a goal. If the dogs had their full list they would be favourites here, even so, the players that are stepping up are doing a great job. This is a 50/50 game for me.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’m liking what I’ve seen from the Bulldogs in the absence of key players. Sam Darcy is only going to keep improving and is already a star, Liberatore is in career best form leading the dogs midfield and I’m taking the dogs here simply because we are getting more value in a game I can see either team winning.
PUT YOUR HOUSE ON IT
Brisbane will start to really get going now with a few games under their belt for match fitness given they had a later start to pre season and come up against a re-building Tigers team that has just been pumped by 72 and 82 points against teams that won’t make finals. The line is currently -47.5 for Brisbane at $1.90, the Lions will give the young Tigers a thumping this weekend closer to the 100 point mark. Brisbane to win by over 48 points easily, put your house on it!
DOG OF THE ROUND
I’m tipping St Kilda to win in normal tipping competitions so the fact we are getting them as a big $2.55 underdog here makes this easily my dog of the round. Their half backs are statistically the most dangerous in the competition and they’ve already knocked off Geelong and now smashed Richmond. The only thing in Port Adelaide’s favour is it’s in Adelaide. The saints have changed the way they play and their ball movement is the reason behind it, their kicking efficiency is great and they’ve still got 5-6 players out. I’ve said Port Adelaide will be one of the big sliders this season and I don’t rate their forward line so I can see St Kilda scoring a lot from chains starting in their defensive 50.
MULTI WORTH A PINEAPPLE
Collingwood Win $1.48
Geelong Win $1.21
Sydney Win $1.54
Brisbane -47.5 Win $1.90
$5.22-1
