Round 4 Review
We had a pretty spot on Round 4, I would have tipped 8/8 if I didn’t personally barrack for the Doggies I think! Last weeks write ups produced 7/8 winners and our Dog of the round St Kilda proved too good for Port as I suspected. If you followed last weeks tips, you would have finished with 10.90 points as I did, which was the 2nd highest but Redted3 went one better and took Fremantle to beat the Bulldogs giving them a perfect round 5 bonus points for a total of 17.53. Brisbane took their foot off the gas in the final term after establishing a match winning 55 point lead against Richmond to eventually finish 28 point winners, which cost us our best bet (-47.5) and the multi.
ROUND 5 TIPS
Gather around MrPineapple for more winning tips, it’s Gather Round in Adelaide! The only time of the year you ever hear anyone say ‘hey let’s go to Adelaide this weekend for fun’ just ask Jack Higgins.
Adelaide $1.61 v Geelong $2.34
I was looking forward to Adelaide v Gold Coast last week and wowee, it did not disappoint. That was a high quality game between two teams who will be there deep in September. Adelaide overcame a slow start and probably should have won, with the AFL even coming out and apologizing for the non free kick to Rankine late, the end result, Adelaide lost by 1 point but neither teams stocks went down. Riley Thilthorpe is the #1 rated player in the game since round 17 last season, he banged through another 5 goals whilst Tex Walker (4) and Fogarty (3) continue to show why teams back lines will dread playing the Crows. Geelong did what Melbourne allowed them to do, with a record amount of uncontested marks as Melbourne opted for the extra around the stoppage giving Geelong a free man in defence to control the game, a tactic seemingly to limit the damage but Geelong were still 39 point victors. Patrick Dangerfield showed he’s still a gun, best on ground with 3 goals and 20 touches.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Adelaide at home won’t be trying not to lose by a lot like Melbourne did. They know they have the advantage in the midfield and forward line. Some might look at this as a game that’s close-ish to 50/50 and take the value on the Cats, but it’s not me. Adelaide to win, comfortably.
Collingwood $1.72 v Sydney $2.13
The pies did what they needed to do against Carlton to get the win, but it’s come at a cost losing Dan Houston (2 week suspension) and since then Lachie Schultz who was best on ground and Jordan De Goey. Sydney had 6-7 players out against North Melbourne but still reminds the competition why they were the best team last year until the Grand Final. I’m not sure at the time of writing this how many players Sydney will get back, but if it’s even 1-2 I think this is a 50/50 game. I don’t rate Sydney’s talls Hayward and Amartey even though they just kicked 4 each last week and if they don’t mark inside 50’s the pies are the best at turning defensive 50 turnovers to scores by hand. Sydney haven’t relied on Heeney and Warner (Warner was subbed out and I’m not sure if he’s playing this week, so that’s a big watch) so they’re winning with different players picking up the slack this year.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’m going to wait until closer to game day to see who’s in and who’s out as that will be my deciding factor. We know the pies have lost those 3 players mentioned and if Sydney lose Warner and regain nobody else I’ll tip Collingwood. If Warner plays and 1 or 2 others are inclusions, give me the value of Sydney. I also like Either Team under 24.5 as this will be close.
North Melbourne $3.90 v Gold Coast $1.26
North went back to their old ways as their captain mentioned post game. Their win against Melbourne looks less impressive now we’ve seen the level Melbourne are at. They were blown away by Sydney who only had 15 of their Grand Final team playing. I can’t believe we’re getting $1.26 and the line is only -24.5 for Gold Coast at $1.90, load up! Gold Coast are the most well rounded team in the competition in my opinion, stars everywhere. The additions of Rioli and Noble to the half back and natural improvement of all their young high draft picks has made them a formidable opponent no matter where they play this year.
Mr Pineapple thinks – It’s going to be another tough day for North, Gold Coast’s midfield will dominate and Ben King will kick 5+. Take the -24.5 on the Suns, I’m putting as much as I can on a big Suns win.
Carlton $1.16 v West Coast $5.25
Somebodies 0 must go! Who would have thought you’d see a 0-4 Carlton paying $1.16, oh it’s because it’s against West Coast and they STINK! They’ve had to move Harley Reid to defense and let him take some kick ins to get him some easy kicks, it did work as he ended up with a game high 25 disposals because the ball was down there so often as they got smashed by GWS. If his player disposals line is around 17.5 again, I’m taking overs there with the change of role. Otherwise this is a game where we find out just how bad either of these teams are. Carlton have at least been in games and not far off winning them so I can see why they’re favourites. West Coast just don’t seem interested, leaders not applying pressure or running defensively. At least Carlton are just trying so hard that they leave no petrol in the tank for the last quarter and a half.
Mr Pineapple thinks – There’s no value in Carlton at $1.16 for a team who have forgotten how to win, the problem is I can’t see West Coast beating anybody. I’m taking Carlton just because I think I can get 8/8 and the 5 bonus points. If you aren’t in contention for that by the time this game starts, you could pick West Coast and hope their leaders have a crack.
Western Bulldogs $2.50 v Brisbane $1.50
The Bulldogs were only beaten by a couple of 10 minute patches where Fremantle didn’t play like Fremantle. Outside of that 5 goal burst in the 2nd quarter the dogs tried and Sam Darcy was again a star with 5 goals. I think the Bulldogs will put in another commendable effort here but we’ll get a similar result. Brisbane threatened to blow Richmond away last week leading by 55 points in the 3rd quarter and then they just took their foot off the tigers throat and coasted home. Their midfield had a day out but they won’t get that kind of dominance against a gritty Bulldogs midfield lead by Liberatore.
Mr Pineapple thinks – this will be an arm wrestle for most of the game but like last week I think the bulldogs will allow a couple of patches throughout the game where the Lions kick a few goals in a row, Brisbane are doing just enough to keep winning and navigate this part of the season. Take the $1.50 on the lions and if you want more value go 1-39
Melbourne $1.96 v Essendon $1.85
Melbournes game style just isn’t what wins games in 2025. Their leaders are visibly upset and angry, but it’s partly their fault. Winning hard ball and bombing long just doesn’t work anymore, especially when your forward line has no marking presence and your small forwards are out of form. The bombers at least seem younger and hungrier trying to climb up the ladder which is the polar opposite of the demons who are on a quick descent, winless with the 2nd worst percentage. The Bombers have had the bye to prepare here and I think will go into the game with higher hopes and a more positive game plan.
Mr Pineapple thinks – It’s a 50/50 game odds wise but I’d rather be slowly taking the steps up, than in the elevator headed for the bottom floor/four like Melbourne are. I think the fresh bombers will bring the pressure and have more ways to win this game. Give me Essendon at $1.85
Richmond $5.80 v Fremantle $1.14
Fremantle got their first win on the board against the dogs to relieve some pressure. They showed glimpses of exciting fast football which ultimately was the difference as the rest of the match was an arm wrestle. They lost ruckman Luke Jackson with a hamstring late so I doubt they’ll risk him against Richmond. The Tiges won the last quarter against Brisbane and are giving their supporters some hope with the likes of #1 pick Sam Lalor showing his class with 24 touches and 2 goals and Seth Campbell has now kicked multiple goals in every game this season. Richmond have at times shown the ability to come from nowhere and show a bit of fight and coincidentally could get back Noah Balta this weekend.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I can’t see Richmond winning this, but if Balta returns and Jackson is out, Fremantle 1-39 represents a lot more value than $1.14, but it’s Freo to win here.
St Kilda $2.83 v GWS $1.43
The Saints are surprising alot of people, we tipped them last week as underdogs and it’s more because of the way they are playing rather than the players they’ve got. The A graders they do have are in the right spots for how the games played this year with Wangerneen-Milera so dangerous off half back, Higgins keeps kicking goals in Ben Kings Absence and McCrae gets them metres gained from midfield stoppage. But GWS are a different animal. Watching them last week against West Coast you can see exactly the game style they want to play and they actually have more than enough A-graders to do it week in week out against the best teams. Jesse Hogan’s run up in set shots is as funny as it is effective, he’s now kicked 13.0 from his two games. Credit to St Kilda for getting the most out of their team so far, but GWS are a level above.
Mr Pineapple thinks – With Hogan back now it’s full steam ahead for the Giants. $1.43 is great odds for a game I’m 99% certain they win. I’m not suggesting taking the line bet of -15.5 but I know GWS will win this.
Port Adelaide $2.87 v Hawthorn $1.45
The grudge match that came from nowhere. Well if you had to pinpoint where it started you might take a look at Jack Ginnivans social media comments last year when he suggested the hawks would walk through Port into a prelim final. He certainly won’t be making any comments this week but this is my moral of the round. Port are as I’ve said every week, on the decline. We keep getting great odds on their opposition, we got Essendon and Saints as underdogs to beat them. My thoughts on their lack of an A grade forward and reliance on their mids (Horne Francis kicked 3 last week) remains the same and they’re coming up against arguably the best team in the competiton who now have a point to prove.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Hawthorn should be $1.15 here and we’re getting $1.45!! The line is only -14.5 for Hawks at $1.90. House, car, savings, anything you can get on Hawks to win this do it. Coming off the bye the Hawks will get their revenge on that final loss last year.
PUT YOUR HOUSE ON IT
As I just mentioned, it’s the final game of gather round and the top of table, improving young, exciting Hawks are playing the declining, no forward line, weak back line Port Adelaide. Hawthorn at $1.45 is the value of the round! Port have only beaten Richmond and lost to Collingwood, St Kilda and Essendon. This game will be over by 3 quarter time. House on Hawks -14.5 Win!!
DOG OF THE ROUND
Sydney are $2.13, not much of an underdog but they’re the most likely underdog to win. As I mentioned the Pies have Houston, Schultz and De Goey out, it’s in Adelaide so no home ground advantage to either and if Warner plays and Sydney get back any troops they’re more than capable of winning this.
MULTI WORTH A PINEAPPLE
Hawks -14.5 $1.90 Win
GWS Win $1.45 Win
Gold Coast -24.5 Win
Adelaide $1.61 Win
$8.42-1
