Round 5 Review
What an entertaining round of football Gather round produced. We got 2 wrong with Geelong coming back against Adelaide and I couldn’t believe what I saw on Sunday night with Port Adelaide getting themselves up for what is clearly going to be a great rivalry with the Hawks from now on. SkyMasterson was a hawks win away from a perfect round, having the best score this week with 12.9 points.
ROUND 6 TIPS
Brisbane $1.48 v Collingwood $2.65
We kick off the round with the Grand Final rematch from 2023 and even though the Pies didn’t make finals last year they still beat Brisbane in both games in 2024! Both teams are in a great form this season with only 1 loss between them. Brisbane have always been better at home and we don’t know if Collingwood will be getting De Goey or Schultz back yet which would be key inclusions. The Pies replacements have slotted in perfectly though with the likes of Long (29 touches) and Sullivan (1 goal, 15 touches) doing their roles. The older brigade of Sidebottom and Pendlebury are still in the pies best 5 or 6 and I reckon this will be a cracker!
Mr Pineapple thinks – This will be decided by under 15 points, I’ve tipped Brisbane in normal competitions but the $2.65 is hard to pass up after how good Collingwood were last week, they’ve had the Lions measure in the past 3 matches and this is close to a 50/50. Take the value, enjoy the match. Pies +13.5 at $1.90 for me!
North Melbourne $3 v Carlton $1.38
Carlton broke through for their first win last week, destroying the vulnerable Eagles who recorded the least amount of contested possessions in history. North Melbourne looked spent in the heat in Adelaide late but their midfield will 100% put up a better fight than what Carlton walked over last week. Davies-Uniacke, Simpson and Sheezel all got plenty of the ball against one of the best midfields in the competition and I think this will be closer than the 17.5 line the bookies currently have. Carlton will have McKay out again after suffering an early head knock and I don’t think Curnow is in great form.
Mr Pineapple thinks – This will be closer than the odds predict, North have to respond and they will win games like this, this season here and there. I do think Calrton will do enough to get a win but I’m just not willing to take $1.38 here. I’m happy enough to take a risk and say I think Carlton win, but give me the value of $3 on North.
West Coast $4.10 v Essendon $1.24
The Eagles are going backwards, they dropped their 2023 Best & Fairest winner Tim Kelly, so we’ll see if he’s found the passion for the game again after 1 week out and they recorded the lowest ever contested possessions last week against Carlton. It’s hard to see how they win a game. Having Jake Waterman back is a positive but they lack talent and the experienced players they do have, aren’t playing well. We tipped the Bombers last week to beat Melbourne and they did, convincingly. There’s enough to like about Essendon to not be tempted by the value of the Eagles here. I don’t think Essendon can keep the top 8 teams to under 100 points but West Coast are far from that and lacking leadership.
Mr Pineapple thinks – The line is only -24.5 on the Bombers here, they will win this by 10 goals and you can confidently take the overs on the disposal line of players like Zack Merrett and Dylan Shiel. See the Bombers fly up
Melbourne $2.80 v Fremantle $1.44
What a shambles Melbourne are in. They need a Time Machine to take the rest of the teams back to 2021 when it worked. They have the worst forward 6 in the league (I even rate West Coast’s forward better). They simply need a different game plan. Here’s the thing though, they have talent around and behind the ball. So I’m certain at some stage this year they will pull a win we aren’t expecting simply because Petracca, Oliver, Viney around the ball and May and Lever behind are A-Grade players, playing the wrong game style. May is a good match up for Treacy who’s equal leading the Coleman and Melbourne’s midfield still won the inside 50’s last week. There will come a game when they make some changes or everything just clicks and they win. Fremantle were good in dismantling Richmond last week with their best players Serong (29 touches), Brayshaw (31 touches) and Treacy (6 goals) leading the way. They will definately go into this game deserved favourites and with more confidence than the Demons.
Mr Pineapple thinks – As I mentioned I do think Melbourne will knock someone off that we don’t expect this year, it’s just hard to pick which week that will be. They will finish bottom 6 but get a big scalp out of the blue somewhere. Fremantle have won the last 4 between these two so I’m taking Fremantle and I like the total points under 168.5
Adelaide $1.82 v GWS $2
I’ve been on the Crows bandwagon all season, I was surprised to see them allow Geelong to make a comeback last week but sometimes players like Patrick Dangerfield just can’t be stopped. This is a blockbuster match up as I believe these two teams will be top 4 come the end of the season. GWS are a more well rounded team with talent everywhere, whereas I think Adelaide are just stacked in the Midfield & Forward line. Jesse Hogan STILL hasn’t kicked a behind this year and Toby Green showed his class last week with 5 goals. But the 3 headed attack Adelaide has along with Rankine proving his calf injury was fine last week means this is a 50/50 for me.
Mr Pineapple thinks – this is so tough, flip a coin. It’s in Adelaide, so that’s a tick for them, I couldn’t talk you out of tipping either team. I think simply because the last quarter and a half (in Adelaide) that I saw Adelaide play wasn’t good, I need to tip GWS here. When both teams are playing the brand of footy they want they’re unstoppable. But I’m hoping the orange Tsunami’s stars start well and maybe Geelong showed the Giants how you beat Adelaide with their performance later in the game last week. Who knows
Richmond $8 v Gold Coast $1.08
I’d rather be a Richmond supporter than a West Coast or North Melbourne fan right now, at least they are in year 1 of a re build and showing some glimpses. The Gold Coast Suns now are the real deal, believe me when I tell you, Damien Hardwick will know exactly how to beat his old team and he has more than enough stars to do it easily. The Suns are stacked EVERYWHERE hence being only 1 of 2 teams remaining undefeated so far. If Noah Balta doesn’t return you can expect Ben King to kick another bag but if you are a Richmond fan be happy with the progress Tassie boys Sam Banks and Seth Campbell are making and there’s things to like about Jacob Bauer and the return of Hugo Ralph-Smith was positive. Both supporters can come away this week happy about things no matter the result.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’m big on the Gold Coast, I got them at $21-1 to win the Flag last week and I think they will be right there in September challenging to win it. If you’ve followed MrPineapple you know I have plenty of mates at Richmond and I think they’re doing well but I don’t know which team right now I’d tip to beat the Suns.
Sydney $1.46 v Port Adelaide $2.70
This is an interesting game, both teams are coming off very different experiences in gather round. Sydney were blown away by Collingwood, they need their troops back and rely too much on Heeney & Warner. Port Adelaide on the other hand relief heavily on a masterclass from outgoing coach Ken Hinkley to fire them up for the rivalry clash with Hawthorn, they were up by 71 points in the 2nd quarter before the hawks were able to blink. Getting Butters back which allowed Rozee to move to half back was the key, along with the continued improvement of Horne-Francis. With both my predictions last week about these teams being waaaaay off I’m not sure what to think here.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Sydney are better than what they showed last week and Hinkley can’t get his players up and about every week like he did with the ammo they had on the hawks. Last year Port blew Sydney away by 112 points late in the season before Sydney strolled into a Grand Final beating them by 36 points in a prelim. Give me Sydney at home, I think Hinkley used his one get out of jail free card last week razzing the boys up to beat the hawks.
Western Bulldogs $1.57 v St Kilda $2.35
The Dogs were up by 39 points early against last years premiers but as I suggested, at some point they would concede a run of goals. St Kilda’s performance against GWS was also as I expected with the Giants just being a level above everywhere on the ground. I’m really interested to see how this game goes because at this point both teams fans could be very hopefull but after Sunday I think we’ll know which team is realistically more likely to pinch that 8th spot for finals. Wanganeen-Milera continued to show why the saints need to use their ‘war chest’ on keeping him as he had 24 touches and 3 goals whilst the Bulldogs #6 pick Ryley Sanders had his best game since being drafted with a goal and 22 touches, adding to the players outside the dogs 6-7 stars that are ready to go to that next level.
Mr Pineapple thinks – It depends on who gets the game on their terms, I can see both teams winning this, but I think the Dogs have more A-Graders who can step up and keep their season on track. I don’t know how the saints will stop Sam Darcy, I think he’ll kick 4+ but give me the Dogs in a close one 1-39.
Geelong $1.87 v Hawthorn $1.94
If you’d asked me last week, this would be an easy pick in the Hawks favour. But Geelong showed you can’t ever count them out and Dangerfield can at any point just put the Cats on his shoulders and turn a game on its head. The hawks just didn’t show up until the 2nd half and despite being 71 points down before half time, they eventually got to play how they wanted but it made me remember, they are young and can be susceptible to getting a bit ahead of themselves. Will Day out is concerning because the stats of how many games Hawks win without him isn’t good.
Mr Pineapple thinks – It’s a matter of can the older stars from the Cats keep lifting their team to victory or will the young Hawks learn from last week and make sure they’re on from the first bounce. I think the 2nd is more likely and Sam Mitchell will have the Hawks re-focused and ready to make amends on last weeks upset.
PUT YOUR HOUSE ON IT – Essendon -27.5 Win. Harley Reid is in my opinion most likely to end up at Bomber land in 2027, don’t expect any of his bullying antics. West Coast have to come out and go harder at the contest than last week, surely, but 80% of their team look like they aren’t up to AFL standard at the moment! The Bombers aren’t great, but they’re improving and should easily cover this -27.5 line.
DOG OF THE ROUND – Collingwood have to be the most likely of the underdogs, Brisbane have given teams big leads in every game this season so far before making great come backs. But the pies are very well coached in changing the way they play to suit the situation, if Brisbane give Collingwood a decent lead, don’t expect to see the Pies allowing the Lions back into the game likes others have ever round this season.
MULTI WORTH A PINEAPPLE
Collingwood + 13.5 Win $1.90
North Melbourne +17.5 Win $1.90
Fremantle Win $1.44
$5.19-1
