ROUND 2 REVIEW
Alright punters, MrPineapple always says, you’ve got to look backwards before you look forwards both for form and to understand how new/unique tipping competitions work, so let’s analyze who the big winners of round 2 were!
Pluckyfern123 topped round 2 with a score of 13.49 correctly tipping 7 of the 8 matches only missing with Adelaide destroying the Bombers. I personally couldnt see a world where St Kilda beat Geelong but off a small sample size of 2025 it shows that young teams that can bring a pressure rating of over 200 can beat anyone (Bailey Smith being a late withdrawal and Tom Stewart injuring himself early arguably two of the cats most important players helped their cause). It’s only natural that during the first few rounds of a season we will see more upsets because most of us are still tipping based off our opinions and form we saw at the back end of last season. What set Pluckyfern123 apart from the next best tipsters of the round was the fact Pluckyfern123 took Port & Brisbane at low odds (although didn’t West Coast give Brisbane a scare), all the high performers took St Kilda & North Melbourne to upset Geelong & Melbourne. Nobody earned the 5 bonus points for a perfect round.
I did a little research and over a 4 season sample size the favourites have won every game of the round only 4 times. That’s just over 4% of the time – based off past results – that you can simply pick the favourites and get the 5 bonus points in this competition. Let’s also take into account that if you picked all favourites, so will a lot of others, so it’s safe to assume that you won’t be the only punter getting those extra 5 if all favourites get up. If you enjoy a multi (who doesn’t) think about how many times you’ve hit an 8 legger compared to how many you’ve lost (you’re probably wishing it was 4% am I right!)
Let’s look at another stat to put things into perspective. Favourites in AFL win approximately 57.9% of the time meaning 42.1% of the time an underdog wins and must be paying over $2, most of the time significantly more. In round 2, 62.5% of the favourites won. In your regular tipping competition you would have gotten 5 points tipping the favourites. In UPC’s tipping competition you got 8.51 points for tipping the 3 underdogs and only 6.74 for tipping the 5 favourites. Some food for thought when considering your strategy for this competition where we reward points based off of odds. Lastly, if you didn’t already know, we can change our tips anytime before the match starts so for example if you are going into Sunday with all winners and have opted for West Coast to beat Fremantle as an upset, you can change your tip before the game starts to give yourself a better chance of the bonus 5 points for a perfect round.
ROUND 3 PREVIEW
Essendon $2.25 v Port Adelaide $1.65
Essendon were disappointing with last week albeit against an Adelaide team that looks set to have a much improved 2025 on the back of their weapons in attack, they have such a dangerous forward line, maybe the most potent in the competition and already have scored 296 points from 2 games, 161 of those coming against an Essendon team that struggle to defend and stop teams scoring. The Bombers only have 1 A-Lister in their captain Zach Merret who lead the way with 36 touches and 4 goals but he can’t win games himself, it’s hard to see the Bombers beating the better teams this year (however I don’t have Port in that tier). Port Adelaide improved last week after a big loss to Collingwood, but it was only against Richmond who they started $1.11 favourites against and outside of Georgiades kicking 4, it was a lot of Port’s Mid’s and smalls who scored in a pretty even spread of goal kickers. We sometimes have short memories when it comes to tipping/betting so I think a better gauge on this weeks game is the form from round 1 where Essendon did a lot right against a very good Hawthorn and Port got belted by Collingwood. Essendon being at home and having scored 85 & 100 against two of the competitions in form teams right now makes this a 50/50 game for me.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Take the value on Essendon here at home, if this game was played last week the bombers would be favourites.
Carlton $2 v Western Bulldogs $1.82
MrPineapple is glad he’s not a Carlton supporter right now, although they didn’t embarrass themselves by only losing to Hawthorn by 20, the wet conditions suited Carlton’s robust game style and Hawthorn still made them look silly with their ball movement. Another 2nd half fade out is starting a noticeable trend that it’s hard to play the way they do for 4 quarters. Curnow showed he wasn’t fit with only 5 touches and no impact, I’m surprised they are $2 to be honest. Meanwhile the Bulldogs exceeded my expectations only just going down to Collingwood whilst they still have 6-7 key players out but it’s given opportunities to young players to show why they deserve a spot when the stars return and we’ve seen so far that intensity and pressure has been the key to many of the upsets so far this season. Sam Darcy is a star and Carlton prefer Weitering to play a loose role instead of taking the best forward, I’m excited to see how and who Carlton play on Darcy. Liberatore is doing an excellent job in Bontempelli’s absence leading the dogs (34 touches and a goal) last week and he won’t let Patrick Cripps bully the dogs midfield. The one thing the dogs have in the absence of their Captain & Treloar is a brigade of tough ball winnings mids alongside Liberatore in Richard’s, Kennedy and Sanders which could nullify Carltons strength which is their stoppage game.
Mr Pineapple thinks – You just can’t trust Carlton at the moment and I’d want much longer odds than $2 to find out if Carlton can turn it around. The Bulldogs should be $1.50 here so I’m happily taking the $1.82
Melbourne $1.91 v Gold Coast $1.91
Whilst Melbourne were gallant in defeat in round 1 against GWS, they were torn apart by a youthful North Melbourne by the tune of 59 points. If they get Steven May back that will help them in defense, but their problems lie in their forward line where they struggle to convert inside 50’s into scores. Clayton Oliver was huge with 36 touches and a goal whilst Petracca and Viney were good, there’s not much more they could have done and they still got belted by North in a match they started $1.41 favourites. Gold Coast smashed West Coast in round 1 by 87 points, then the Eagles almost beat Brisbane without their best forward Waterman. The Suns have stars all over the field which I think match up well against Melbourne considering it’s their bottom half of their team that aren’t up to standard. I have no idea how this game is considered 50/50 at $1.91 each by the bookies, I was expecting Gold Coast to be around $1.40-$1.50 so this is my bet of the round if you want a single game to bet on.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I could be homeless (but i highly doubt it) this time next week because I’m putting my house on the Suns here at the ridiculous odds of $1.91, I expect them to start much shorter once punters see how wrong the bookies have gotten these odds!
St Kilda $1.25 v Richmond $4
Both these teams saw a big form reversal in round 2, St Kilda brought one of the highest pressure games I can remember, especially early and built a game winning lead early on against Geelong on the back of intensity and tackling which saw them record one of the highest pressure rating games I’ve ever seen. Ross Lyon obviously made an emphasis on that and whilst it will be hard to get them that focused against a Richmond team they should beat comfortably, if that game style is something they can replicate often, they’ll be a headache and hard to play against for many teams. Richmond on the other hand performed how most of us predicted pre season, out classes by 72 points, they do get Tom Lynch back which is a bonus but I don’t think this is a game where the $4 on offer for a Tigers upset is enticing enough.
Mr Pineapple thinks – St Kilda have shown what they are capable at their best now and Ross Lyon will demand they bring that intensity again, just take the $1.25 for the Saints here.
Brisbane $1.45 v Geelong $2.78
This game becomes more interesting after last rounds results, yes the Lions overcame a slow start against West Coast but I doubt the Brisbane players or fans came away confident after that performance at home. Geelongs fortunes will be heavily influenced by the availability of Bailey Smith returning after being a late withdrawal and whether Tom Stewart’s knee injury keeps him out. If one of those two play, I see this as a 50/50 and would opt for the value of Geelong, I’ll personally wait until later in the week to see who’s named. Both teams make their home grounds a fortress but Brisbane aren’t giving off the vibes of defending premiers to me right now.
Mr Pineapple thinks – if Smith & Stewart are in, it’s a definite Geelong tip for me given the $2.78 odds, even without them I think it’s worth a shot as I don’t see Brisbane applying a pressure rating of over 200 like the saints did to the cats. For context, a $1.45 favourite implies the bookies think Brisbane are a 14.5 point better team here, give me the value of $2.78 with Geelong to bounce back.
Hawthorn $1.48 v GWS $2.67
One of the better matches I can remember being hosted in Tasmania, two teams undefeated who most have in their top 4 for the season. Hawthorn have always played UTAS stadium well and both teams game style should hold up no matter what weather we get on the day so I couldn’t talk you out of tipping either team. If Jesse Hogan returns it would be a massive inclusion for GWS. Both teams have similar game styles scoring a lot from turnovers in their defensive 50, without Hogan I think Hawthorns new look defense allow them to link up with handball on the counter attack, but with Tom Green back in the midfield I think GWS will win the stoppage game. I’d be taking the +12.5 $1.90 on GWS here as I think its will be the match of the round.
Mr Pineapple thinks – With or without Hogan, GWS just have that winning mentality, so do the Hawks and I don’t know who will win, I’ve tipped Hawthorn in regular tipping comps but because of the extra value in this format I have to go with the value of $2.67 on GWS here.
Adelaide $1.13 v North Melbourne $6
Adelaide have arrived. What an attacking beast they are, I can confidently say they have the best forward line and most dangerous attacking weapons in the game. The best part of Thilthorpe, Fogarty, Walker as the 3 talls is they don’t seem to ever get in each others way. They even had the luxury of resting Rankine halfway through the 3rd quarter against the Bombers. They will be involved in some seriously high scoring games this season and the knock on North Melbourne despite showing they are on the rise with a big win against Melbourne last week is they let teams score 100+ too often. I’d be taking the total points over 188.5 as a side bet here as North looked good in the midfield and dangerous going forward with Larkey finally getting some decent supply but not being relied upon solely as Zurhaar and Curtis were equally as dangerous with 7 goals between them. With both teams strengths being midfield and attack, this will be an entertaining game.
Mr Pineapple thinks – If it wasn’t in Adelaide I could see why you might give North a chance, Adelaide haven’t beaten any ‘good’ teams yet but at home I think they have too many match winners, but if you aren’t still in contention for a perfect round on Sunday afternoon you’re not really getting much back for tipping Adelaide at $1.13 and the $6 for North looks tempting for an upset. If I’m 6/6 after Saturday I’m going Adelaide, if not I’ll take the value of North Melbourne.
West Coast $3.81 v Fremantle $1.27
I know what I’ll be doing at 6.10pm on Sunday, eyes glued to the tv for this Derby. Both teams are winless but I’m predicting this game will be a cracker and leave us with plenty of talking points post match. The whole footy world is giving Harley Reid a hard time but he stepped up in this match last year and I think this has all the signs of being a firey, heated, blockbuster. West Coast nearly blew last years premiers away with a huge start and that was without their best forward Jake Waterman. They uncovered a couple of gems in particular Dewar who was electric with 20 touches and 2 goals and Liam Ryan looked dangerous turning back the clock up forward with 3 goals. Harley Reid was again disappointing but as young players do, they can be inconsistent but now with a few games this season for match fitness to make up for an interrupted pre season, I think a fiery derby which will be more of a scrappy, contested stoppage type game, is exactly what Reid needs to put in a match winning performance and get the critics off his back, at the very least expect a few scraps and scuffles. Fremantle have been disappointing starting the season 0-2 and a loss here will have them struggling to contest for a top 4 spot like many thought they might this season. They need to make the most of their opportunities up forward, Treacy was huge last week but Voss would like a few of his shots at goal again finishing 1.3 missing very kickable goals. Serong and Brayshaw had quiet days with 19 touches each and aren’t big body mids which is where I think Reid and Kelly can take advantage.
MrPineapple Thinks – Give me the value here with West Coast at $3.81! They won the first Derby last year when Harley Reid kicked 3 and I think he turns his form around and rises to the occasion. If the West Coast bring the pressure they did in the first half last week against Brisbane they are more than capable of upsetting Fremantle here. However, if I am 7/7 before this game starts I will change my tip to Fremantle to give myself statistically a better chance of the 5 bonus points.
Mr Pineapples ROUND 3 BEST BETS
DOG OF THE WEEK
I picked Sydney last week and they didn’t let me down. GWS are always tough to play against and I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised whoever wins this game between GWS and Hawthorn so the fact we’re getting $2.67 makes them my best underdog, especially if they get Jesse Hogan back.
PUT YOUR HOUSE ON IT
I cannot believe Gold Coast and Melbourne at the time of writing are equal odds at $1.91. Melbourne are on the decline, Max Gawn is battling personal issues, I can’t see whatever coach Simon Goodwin was eluding to as to why he played below expectations fixing itself in a week and Melbournes other A-Graders all played well and they still got pumped by North. Gold Coast are heading in the opposite direction on the rise and expected to play finals and have stars all over the field and will finally show that they can win away from home this week.
A MULTI WORTH A PINEAPPLE ($50)
Gold Coast Win $1.91
Western Bulldogs Win $1.82
Saint Kilda -27.5 Win $1.90
$6.60-1
