Round 13 Tips & Odds
Round 12 Review
What a strange round tipping wise round 12 was! 7 players got equal 1st because not only did they end up with the same score but the same margin, you’ll never see that again! They all ended up tipping the same 4 winners from the 7 matches. Our dog of the round St Kilda got up and Richmond should have held on to beat GWS, just going down by 3 points after an emotional 3 quarter time rev up from Callan Ward who had just does his ACL earlier in the match. Our Pyramid best bet also won as Adelaide demolished Sydney. I think we are in for a treat in round 13 as I give most of the underdogs a good chance this round.
ROUND 13 TIPS
Western Bulldogs $1.50 v Hawthorn $2.55
Hawthorns season is looking less positive each week, they’re on a 3 game losing streak and are continually getting beaten by the teams in the top 6. Ever since Will Day got injured this change of form has been apparent. The Bulldogs on the other hand are coming off the bye and were playing arguably the best footy along with Collingwood before the bye. They might be very close on the ladder but the trajectory of each team is heading in the opposite direction. The Bulldogs game is in great shape in all the key metrics, Matt Kennedy is always decent value for 20+ if you’re playing the single game showdowns and Harmes, Sanders or West are the lesser names paying good value to kick a goal.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’m happy to take the $1.50 on the Dogs here, I do think Hawthorn will turn things around, but it might need to wait until they get some confidence up from beating a few of the lower positioned teams on the ladder to get on a roll.
Adelaide $1.60 v Brisbane $2.35
Early on in the season Brisbane were just doing enough to win without looking like they were anywhere near their best, which again was how the win over Essendon looked. Adelaide are continuing to show how good their best football looks, so the question is, how much effort will Brisbane bring this week. If they aren’t at 95% or better, then Adelaide at home will be too good, if Brisbane are saving their best efforts for matches where they respect the opponents a little more, then they can definately win this. The Ashcroft brothers bring their best every week and it’s probably been a lot to do with their consistency (always good for 20+ disposals) as to how the Lions have been able to win some close games. If they don’t send someone to Rankine you can lock him in for 20+ and a goal and even Jordan Dawson is hitting the scoreboard more this season than ever before, Adelaide are great at having 8+ individual goal scorers.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Such a hard game to pick here, because of what Brisbane are capable of on any day. If you’re sitting in the top 20, you are probably leaning towards Adelaide at home, if you need to start cutting that margin from the leaders down I’d probably take the punt on Brisbane. I’ve personally taken Brisbane.
Richmond $2.70 v Sydney $1.46
What a season Richmond are putting together, not in terms of overall success but against what their expectations would have been before round 1. They should have won the weekend against GWS, they were up by 28 points in the last quarter before losing by 3. That will happen to young sides. Getting Dion Prestia back was very important just to take a bit of pressure of some of the younger players and Prestia stood up with 31 touches and a goal on his return, now they just need him to stay healthy. Sydney on the other hand should have accepted at this point that not only are they not going to reach the levels of last year in terms of a premiership tilt, but they most likely aren’t going to even play finals. What that can do mentally to a team once that sinks in can be huge. They were belted by 90 points by the Crows last week and will still be without some key players again this weekend. So it’s going to be interesting, will we see a young hungry team who are playing well just happy to try and pick up as many wins as they can this season vs a team who now know they most likely won’t be playing finals? Or will Sydney try and get themselves for this week knowing a win keeps them mathematically still a chance?
Mr Pineapple thinks – Sydney should be winning this, if they don’t, it’s season over so I’m expecting Dean Cox to be able to get that special effort you can pull out of a hat once or twice a season given it’s literally season on the line stuff. But in terms of tipping, if you’re a fair way off the pace in this comp, this is definately a game that I’m tempted to take the value on Richmond.
Geelong $1.36 v Gold Coast $3.05
Gold Coast are just teasing a little bit this season, they’ll make finals, I’m sure of that, but it was matches like last week where I thought they should be beating Fremantle at home and they fall short. They are jam packed with talent everywhere so they are very capable of winning this game. Geelong weren’t impressive against West Coast at all, in fact West Coast were very much in the game until late, the final margin didn’t show how close the game really was. Gold Coast have probably the best player to send to Bailey Smith who can run with him in Touk Miller, I know he hasn’t been used as a tagger before but shut down Smiths influence and keep Jeremy Cameron quiet and this is anyone’s game. Noah Anderson just keeps racking up huge numbers and the additions of John Noble and Rioli on the half backs give the suns the edge if they can just keep 1-2 or Geelongs A-graders quiet.
Mr Pineapple thinks – This was one of the more surprising odds of the round for me, I was expecting Geelong to be paying $1.60 ish, so I’m picking Gold Coast at $3.05. Even though they lowered their colours last week, Fremantle are a finals contender and it was wet. West Coast were matching it with Geelong for 3 quarters last week. I can see either team winning this so I have to take the value of the Suns.
GWS $1.30 v Port Adelaide $3.45
Port had the bye last round and if they can get a couple of players back off that little break it will help immensely, but the story now is that Ken Hinkley may stand down once Port are mathematically not alive for finals which I’m expecting to come within the next 3 rounds. GWS have just gotten over the line in their last couple against Carlton and then coming back from 28 points down in the last against Richmond. Not exactly great form but at home against a team that seems to have given up on 2025, with key players out, they really should be winning this and easily. I’ve mentioned Port’s lack of effort when they know they’ve lost and I have a feeling that if GWS get off to a good start, this could end up being a 10+ goal win for them because once players like Jesse Hogan, Toby Greene etc get on a roll they usually stay that way for the rest of the game.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Port are either another big loss or just 2 more losses in the next 3 weeks from possibly letting Josh Carr take over early, so I don’t see their effort or attitude changing. GWS could use a big win just to ease the pressure of only just beating some teams down the bottom to get their mojo back. GWS easily here. I’m also taking them at the -21.5 line because of Port’s tendency to give up in 2nd halves.
North Melbourne $1.58 v West Coast $2.35
I’m looking forward to this game – they played an absolute cracker at Hobart last year to finish the season and it’s a good guide as to how both of these teams re-builds are going at the moment given North Melbourne should be ahead by 2-3 years. West Coast have been good recently though, since they beat the Saints despite losing their best forward Jake Waterman, I can see what they’re trying to do game plan wise a little more. Poor Harley Reid still needs significant help as he’s copping the main tag in just his 2nd season but he’s lifted since that short move to the back line. Don’t expect him to rack up 20+ touches, especially when he’s being tagged but he’s influential and also hitting the score board so I always like him for anytime goal-scorer. North’s strength is their midfield who aren’t young, have depth and it will be there that they win this game in my opinion. The return of Wardlaw has given them a spark, he just plays footy the right way and Paul Curtis was in arguably All-Australian form before his suspension are massive positives. Oscar Allan was allowed back up forward since the Waterman injury and the captain gives them a target but it’s their smaller forwards that will need to take every chance they get for them to win games.
Mr Pineapple thinks – North matched it with the best team in Collingwood in their last match for 3 quarters and have had a freshen up. Their mids should give enough supply to key forward Nick Larkey and with Zurhaar and Curtis dangerous, North should show that they are indeed ahead in the re-build race of the two clubs.
Carlton $1.42 v Essendon $2.85
The Bombers almost beat Brisbane last week, they’ve been in a lot of close games this season as have Carlton so I don’t expect this one to be any different. Nate Caddy had probably his best game of his career whilst Jye Caldwell (30 touches and a goal) and Nic Martin (29 touches and 2 goals) were dangerous in helping shoulder some of the load captain Zach Merrett carries. Carlton are coming off the bye, they have struggled late in games often giving up what seem like match winning leads so perfects the bye has allowed them to freshen up and work on this? They still haven’t been able to do what clubs like Melbourne did in season, changing how they move the ball and take advantage of their midfield dominance, they keep butchering the ball with bad decision going inside 50. It seems such an easy fix for them given the targets they have inside 50 with Coleman medalists Curnow and McKay, but I don’t know how many more weeks in a row I can keep saying, if they fix that one aspect of their game, they should win this. The answer is one more.
Mr Pineapple thinks – if Carlton can fix their ball movement inside 50, they should win this. If they don’t, I can see Essendon winning, either way I think the game will be decided by less than 3 goals so I’m taking the value on the Bombers.
Melbourne $3.80 v Collingwood $1.26
There’s been many great contests between these two on King/Queens birthday in the past but this year the pies are just so many levels above the Demons I don’t think we’ll see a close game. The pies are the most well drilled team in terms of how they set up and make every inside 50 count. They’ve often lost a lot of the usual key statistics that would win you games but they are so efficient when they win the ball back and get their inside 50, that they score more than anyone else and keep it in if they don’t score straight away. Melbourne have turned things around and also given minutes to younger players in the last 5 weeks which will hold them in good stead for the future, but they’ll need all their older stars to play well and probably have a very accurate day in front of goals to pull this off. Ned Long has been some pick up, a perfect addition to their midfield whilst Steele Sidebottom is having arguably his best season outside of the year he came 2nd in the Brownlow (this year might even be better still). When you’ve got Nick Daicos and Josh Daicos on fire it almost doesn’t matter what the score is you still think Collingwood will win somehow. It’s actually incredible that their older players are having near career best seasons, Jamie Elliot is 2nd in the Coleman, their game plan just sets them all up for success individually and as a team.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’ve said this most weeks, I don’t think there will be a week I don’t tip Collingwood. I’m very confident they will finish the season minor premiers given their cosy run home now. If $1.26 is too short I’m confident they can cover the -23.5 $1.90 line.
Punting Pyramid Best Bet
The pies are flying and are operating a level above the next best with their system and game plan unbeatable at the moment. They still don’t even have their best team in but each week they make a few changes whether it’s forced by injury or managing players and it hasn’t slowed them down one bit. Melbourne had a good month before letting themselves down last week but I think Collingwood will simply be too good so I’m taking them at the -23.5 line confidently.
DOG OF THE ROUND – I like a few underdogs this round because I genuinely believe any of Hawthorn, Brisbane, Gold Coast, West Coast or Essendon can win as underdogs. I think if you took all of those matches with the handicap line start for the underdog you would come out in profit this round. Essendon almost beat Brisbane last week and Carlton are coming off the bye, I think giving the bombers their +14.5 head start for $1.90 is the best option, both have been involved in very close matches so that little 14.5 buffer could be the difference.
MULTI WORTH A PINEAPPLE
Collingwood Win $1.26
Western Bulldogs $1.50
Brisbane +8.5 $1.90
GWS -21.5 Win $1.90
$6.82 -1
