Round 18 Review
A tricky round for the punters with 4 underdogs winning, hickeyk managed to snag 5 winners to top the round with 12.9! Theres a pretty big difference between the top 9 and bottom 9 now, so when they play against each other I dont see many more upsets happening, but when we have top 9 v each other and bottom 9 v each other its still very close.
Round 19 Tips
Essendon $7.50 v GWS $1.08
Essendon are cursed, they lost Nic Martin and now Nate Caddy from the team that lost to the Tigers, I dont know how they will field a VFL team this week. GWS are going to rest a couple of players like Jesse Hogan but Aaron Cadman is having his breakout season with another 6 goals last week and Jake Stringer popped up with 4 and will be keen to kick a bag against the team that let him go.
Mr Pineapple thinks – The line here is only -43.5 for GWS, they are basically playing a VFL team and I wouldnt be surprised if this ends up 100+ depending on how many they rest. Easy win for GWS here.
Brisbane Lions $1.52 v Western Bulldogs $2.55
The Bulldogs were a little dissapointing losing to Adelaide last week, it feels like they’ve failed every test against other contenders and then just beat up on the bottom 9 sides, which is true as they are 1-7 against the top 8. Brisbane smashed Carlton last week and at home here they should be winning games like this but I do think the Dogs match up well, with Brisbane down a few key backmen and their forward line not overly big. If Bont and Darcy have big games they’re always a chance.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’m going to give the Bulldogs another chance, its almost season on the line type stuff here and I just think they’re stacked with enough talent to beat anyone, their losses have been close so because of the $2.55 on offer I’m willing to take that risk here. If you think Brisbane will win, the 1-39 gives you more value.
Hawthorn $1.19 v Port Adelaide $4.60
The 2nd grudge match since last years final and the last time Ken Hinkley will coach against the Hawks. The Hawks will be very dissapointed they gave up the lead against Fremantle last week whilst Port only beat West Coast by 26 points at home. You would think the Hawks bounce back with finals on the line, its a weird season this year, its so close teams are a chance to finish top 4 and also a chance to miss finals this late in the year. Jason Horne-Francis will miss with a foot injury which hurts, he was best on ground last week.
Mr Pineapple thinks – If Horne-Francis was in, I would be taking the value on Port because I need some points to catch up, I am probably still going to do that once I’ve seen the teams released. I think Hawks should win, but given the back-story and my position on the leaderboard I need some upsets. If you’re sitting nicely in the top 10, you can take Hawthorn though.
Sydney $1.10 v North Melbourne $7
North went down to Melbourne last week and were without spearhead Nick Larkey and have now lost their ruckman Xerri for 3 weeks due to suspension. Colby McKercher continued his good season as did Paul Curtis and Cam Zurhaar up forward. Sydney just got over the line against St Kilda by 5 points, The combination of Brodie Grundy rucking to the elite trio of Heeney, Warner and Gulden will make them hard to beat for anyone for the rest of the season.
Mr Pineapple thinks – The loss of Xerri and Larkey eliminates any chance I gave North of winning this game, we are getting nothing for Sydney to win though so if you are way down the leaderboard you still might need to pick North and just hope for a miracle.
Carlton $2.40 v Melbourne $1.57
This is one of the tougher matches to pick as both teams are having a very similar season and for the same reasons – good list’s on paper, playing bad game styles with neither team being able to convert clearances or chances into scores. Neither team has anything left to play for but if Carlton lose badly here, its really going to make it hard for Michael Voss to keep his job. I think Melbourne have looked better of the two lately, Melksham is having a purple patch up forward kicking 14 in his last 3 and Kozzie Pickett could win them the game himself.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I think this will be low scoring with the total points line 167.5 you could take the unders there. Melbourne have looked more likely lately, winning last week and pushing Adelaide, give me the Demons here.
West Coast $1.73 v Richmond $2.10
Richmond have now won 4 games when most expected them to have a winless season and they have a very realistic chance of adding another win here. They did win what was dubbed the worst game of the season last week against Essendon but they’ll take it. I wondered where they would get their goals from, turns out their mids kicked most of their low score. Sam Banks, Dion Prestia and Tim Tarranto were good and Richmond will have the advantage in the midfield battle here vs basically just Harley Reid, who had one of his best games for the year last week. The Eagles lost to Port by 26 last week but probably have looked better than Richmond recently without any wins to show for it, this is likely their last chance to win a game in front of their home crowd for the season so they’ll want some reward for effort. The Eagles will be without Jack Graham.
Mr Pineapple thinks – A genuine 50/50 but I think Richmond have the advantage in the midfield and they still have some key players down back. I like the under 161.5 total score here and I’ll take the Tigers who are the underdogs here.
Geelong $1.16 v St Kilda $5.20
Geelong just cant seem to beat the GWS Giants and they also lost to St Kilda earlier this year, some teams just are set up differently that Geelong struggle with. Windhager (36 touches) and Hall (3 goals, 15 touches) had probably their best games for the Saints last week while it was the opposite for Geelong star veterans Dangerfield (7 touches) and Cameron (1 goal, 5 touches). If St Kilda can play the way they did earlier in the season when they beat Geelong I think they can keep this close.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I think Geelong will win, but I need points so I’ll be taking the $5.20 on offer for St Kilda, considering they beat the Cats this season and are good at shutting games down. For a single bet I think Geelong 1-39 is the best value here as I think Ross Lyon can keep this match close.
Collingwood $1.30 v Fremantle $3.50
Collingwood finally lost last week, they were held goalless for the first half and then come back from 40+ points down to take the lead late. Credit to the Suns but Collingwood kicked themselves out of that game and should have won. Josh Daicos had a last quarter for the ages with 16 touches and 2 goals to nearly win it for the Pies. The weekly question for the Pies is who do they play and who do they rest so its hard to know early in the week. Fremantle came from behind to beat the Hawks and if they are on, this is a winnable game if Collingwood continue to rest players. Hopefully Brayshaw is all good to play after the nasty head cut.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’ll want to see the teams first but assuming Collingwood continue to rotate who they rest, I think the value is with the Dockers here. I’ll still pick Collingwood in a regular tipping competition but $3.50 is value here as Freo have the tools to win in Jackson, Serong, Brayshaw and Treacy.
Adelaide $1.42 v Gold Coast $2.80
Gold Coast are coming off their best win as a club and they have genuine stars everywhere, lead by Noah Anderson who was excellent last week as was Matt Rowell. I think this is a genuine 50/50 as Adelaide are in a very similar boat with their Captain Jordan Dawson probably the logical danger to Anderson for All-Australian captain, helped by Rankine through the middle and a potent forward line lead by Riley Thilthorp this will be an entertaining game.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I have to take the $2.80 on Gold Coast considering I cant split these teams the difference in odds makes this an easy pick. I think this will be the best game of footy to watch this round, very high scoring and close.
DOG OF THE ROUND
Ive tipped a few underdogs this round but the one I’m most surpised in the odds we are getting has to be Gold Coast. Coming off a win over the flag favourites they will be full of belief and I was expecting odds of around $2 so the $2.80 makes them my dog of the round.
Punting Pyramid Best Bet
GWS -43.5 is my best bet this round, its hard to see how the Bombers are fielding a team at the moment, I’ve never seen a team have such bad luck with injuries in a season. GWS would have to rest alot of players to change my mind on this tip!
Multi Worth a Pineapple
Geelong 1-39 Win $2.20
Gold Coast +15.5 Win $1.90
GWS -43.5 Win $1.90
$7.90 -1
