Round 19 Review
Round 19 saw 3 underdogs win as Fremantle upset the pies in the thriller, Richmond smashed the hopeless Eagles and Carlton just got over the lines against a wasteful Melbourne. Mattyj74 managed 8/9 with only the Eagles losing costing him a perfect round. We are at the point now where 12 points separates 10th from 1st and if you aren’t in the top 10, you really need to backing underdogs and hoping for upsets.
Round 20 Preview
Hawthorn $1.21 v Carlton $4.25
Carlton will say goodbye to Sam Docherty and celebrate Weiterings 200th game, you would think that they will want to play well given those Milestones. They managed a win last week against Melbourne but there is nothing left for them to play for in terms of finals and Hawthorn looked good against Port last week even in the terrible conditions in Launceston. These teams play contrasting styles with the Hawks more capable of a fast ball movement and Carlton involved in lower scoring, contested football.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I think Carlton will make this a lower scoring match and be right up for the fight to show Sam Docherty what he’s meant to the club. I still think Hawthorn should win but I’d be taking 1-39 and if you need an underdog this could be one of the better options this round for those outside the top 10.
Essendon $11 v Western Bulldogs $1.04
You have to feel for Brad Scott as his bombers are just decimated by injury and the Bulldogs are the best team at thrashing the bottom sides. The Bombers may get Nate Caddy back, we’ll have to wait until teams are announced but there is zero chance Essendon get within 30 points of the Bulldogs. Bontempelli just re-signed and they celebrate 100 years and Sam Darcy could kick 6+ easily here. I’m expecting this to be high scoring as the dogs have the most potent midfield and attack and also leak a lot of goals the other way.
Mr Pineapple thinks – You are getting nothing at $1.04 for the Bulldogs so if you are way down the leaderboard you almost need to be picking these huge underdogs to have any chance of catching up but I just can’t see the Bombers getting close here. The Bulldogs need to win to stay in touch with the top 8 and I think they’ll win by 60+
GWS $1.56 v Sydney $2.44
The first Derby of rivalry round and it’s the battle of the bridge in Sydney. GWS have really lifted in the last month but so have the swans. Isaac Heeney was back to his best with 5 goals from the midfield last week and the swans are still mathematically a finals chance whilst GWS were okay without being great against Essendon. The Giants will welcome back a few players they rested like Jesse Hogan, in his absence Jake Stringer got back into form and this should be one of the games of the round.
Mr Pineapple thinks – The Giants need this to keep their top 4 chances alive but I think it’s a genuine 50/50 so I’ll be taking the value of the underdog in the Swans to win a close, fiery contest.
Gold Coast $2.34 v Brisbane $1.61
The Suns really lowered their colours last week against Adelaide, a week after they had one of their best wins against the Pies. They were badly out muscled and will come up against a very mature Brisbane team this week. The Lions just got over the line against the Bulldogs and will want to secure a top 2 finish and home final. I think this will be a very high scoring game, the total points is only 159.5 but I’d wait until I see what the weather is like in case theirs a heap of rain like last week.
Mr Pineapple thinks – If I hadn’t witnessed Gold Coast last week I would take the value on them here but I can’t unsee how bad they looked in that first half against Adelaide. I think this will be closer, with Brisbane likely winning by 1-39.
Fremantle $1.03 v West Coast $12.50
Fremantle pulled off an amazing upset, coming from 22 points down early in the last quarter against the Pies and they look like they are ready for finals now. The Eagles on the other hand got smashed by Richmond and even the coach admitted his players are lacking confidence. Patrick Voss kicked a career best 6 goals and Caleb Serong was again dominant with 37 touches and a goal. Harley Reid continues the good back half of his season with another goal and 27 touches last week.
Mr Pineapple thinks – it’s hard to see Fremantle not winning this easily, they’ll want to consolidate their finals position and need to increase their percentage if they are a chance for top 4. Mathematically you might need to just pick all the underdogs but I don’t see West Coast getting within 40 points.
North Melbourne $6.70 v Geelong $1.11
North Melbourne fans will want to see a competitive performance but in reality, if they get within 30 points of the Cats they will probably be happy. Geelong were good without being great against St Kilda but this is a game where I can see them flexing their muscle. With Xerri out, North lost their backup ruckman last week also and lost the hit outs by over 60 and it puts their midfield on the back foot straight away.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Another game where I can’t talk you into the underdog apart from unless you mathematically just need so many points to catch up that you have to. I think Geelong win this by 40+ and Jeremy Cameron to kick 5+
Adelaide $1.16 v Port Adelaide $5.30
Another showdown and Ken Hinkleys last, can he fire up what’s left of the troops one last time? I don’t think so as Adelaide are absolutely flying, winning 6 of the last 7 and smashing Gold Coast last week, the Crows look the main danger to Brisbane and Collingwood. Port are missing captain Rozee and gun mid Jason Horne-Francis and I don’t think I’d tip against Adelaide against anyone at the moment, we’ve mentioned how dangerous their forwards are but what’s flown under the radar is that they also have the 2nd best Defence in the league and the best in defending contested marks. I think the -29.5 line will be covered easily here.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Adelaide are a chance to grab 2nd spot on the ladder and games like these will pose little threat, I think the Crows -29.5 is the best bet of the round.
Richmond $10.50 v Collingwood $1.05
Richmond made it 2 wins in a row and 5 for the season which is probably 5 more than anyone expected so it’s a credit to the young team and Adam Yze but Collingwood can rest some players and still win this comfortably. Richmond got a lot of goals from their midfield with Tarranto (3 goals) and Hopper (2 goals) leading the way. Nick Daicos had 43 and a goal and will be looking to rack up another huge number while up forward Jamie Elliot will want to put a stamp on his All-Australian position with a big bag after some inaccurate weeks in front of goal.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Another game where you may have to take the value on the underdog but I can’t see the Pies dropping this. Their top position is in danger with some hard matches against Brisbane, Hawthorn and Adelaide coming up so they’ll want to bank these wins and move on.
St Kilda $2.02 v Melbourne $1.82
I’m a little surprised that Melbourne are favourites here and their hopes will depend largely on the fate of Steven May at the tribunal tonight as he tried to beat his 4 week suspension for his bump last week. I personally think he will get off, if he doesn’t, expect these odds to change and see St Kilda start favourites. Wanganeen-Milera has just been on fire since moving to the midfield, adding goals which is similar to Kozzie Pickett at Melbourne. Both teams will be trying to dull the impact those players have and whoever does the better job probably wins this. I think this will be low scoring and under the 168.5 total score line.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’m tipping St Kilda with the expectation that Steven May will be playing so if he does get suspended, it’s an easy Saints tip for me. I think a win will mean more to St Kilda than Melbourne at this stage of the season.
Dog of the round
I’m having Carlton as my dog of the round, there are a lot of big prices underdogs this round but I honestly don’t think any of them will win. But given the emotion attached with Weitering and Docherty I can see the Blues lifting for them.
Punting Pyramid Best Bet
We won last week with GWS and this round I think Adelaide will be far too powerful for Port and ruin Ken’s last Derby. Adelaide -29.5 Win
Multi worth a Pineapple
St Kilda +3.5 Win $1.90
Gold Coast v Brisbane Total Points OVER 154.5 $1.90
Adelaide -29.5 Win $1.90
$6.85
