Round 20 Review
Real Class jumped into 2nd spot overall after a perfect round 20 earning the bonus 5 points and its very tight at the top now with only 14 point separating 1st and 10th. It was a round of smashings and with how the season is going I’m expecting a lot more big wins to top 8 teams when they play the bottom 8 which will make it hard for punters to climb up this leaderboard with so many short priced favourites expected to win easily.
Round 21 Tips
Western Bulldogs $1.50 v GWS $2.60
These teams always lift a little playing each other, a rivalry dating back to the Bulldogs premiership year where they knocked GWS out in a prelim. The Giants will be without captain Toby Green who will miss through another suspension. The Bulldogs again smashed a bottom 8 team, Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton kicked 6 & 7 goals last week and are in great form. The Giants came from behind thanks to a huge 3rd quarter and in particular, a great 2nd half effort from Finn Callaghan to beat Sydney last week. The Dogs need to win games like this to have a chance of making finals now given Gold Coast beat Brisbane and Hawthorn also won.
Mr Pineapple thinks – The Bulldogs have a great record against GWS, they are the only top 8 team they have beaten this year and with the Giants missing a couple of important players I think that trend continues here. Bulldogs to win and the total score to go over 175.5
Adelaide $1.45 v Hawthorn $2.75
A lot has happened since the Crows lost to Hawthorn in Tassie on that wet, cold night a few months ago, they’ve lost just once and are now equal flag favourites. Hawthorn have been winning also but not in the manner Adelaide have, they will have to travel to Adelaide in what is this years hardest road trip. Will Day made his return as Hawthorn did what they needed to do against Carlton and Calsher Dear was dangerous up forward but Adelaide have the best defence in the last 10 weeks and number 1 defenders in winning contested marks. Riley Thilthorp is on fire but if there is one thing that would make Hawks supporters confident, its that they have 3 key defenders in Battle, Barrass and Sicily to match up on Adelaide’s 3 tall forwards.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Adelaide are deserved favourites on the back of their last 8 weeks, at home they will be favourites against anyone right now, but I just think with Hawthorns key backs matching up well on Adelaides forwards, that this could be a good game to take the value on the underdog. I’ll be taking Hawthorn at the +14.5 line, they won a close game against the Crows earlier this season so they will have some confidence.
Melbourne $1.08 v West Coast $8
Melbourne did the unthinkable and lost after leading by 46 points at 3 quarter time last week against St Kilda whilst West Coast were smashed by Fremantle and lose Harley Reid for the rest of the season to an ankle injury. Its crazy to think Melbourne could possibly be $1.08 against anyone but if you take out that last quarter, they were actually pretty good against St Kilda and its hard to see West Coast even getting close to a win in the last 4 rounds.
Mr Pineapple thinks – If you’re way down the leaderboard you probably need to hope Melbourne keep finding ways to lose here but in reality, I think Melbourne will get this done easily but I think West Coast wont be able to score enough to get the total score over 171.5 so I like the unders as a single bet.
Gold Coast $1.04 v Richmond $11
The Suns stunned Brisbane in a big way, absolutely dominating them all day and its been a funny 3 week period, with wins over Collinwood and Brisbane either side of a thumping to Adelaide. Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson are possibly the best midfield duo at the moment
Sydney $1.04 v Essendon $11
Sydney had a 2nd half fade out last week against GWS, which ended their slim hopes of making the finals whilst Essendon were pumped by 93 points at the hands of the Bulldogs. The Bombers just want the season to end, their massive injury list just gives them no hope of being competitive. Sydney will still trouble better sides although how they react to their finals chances being done now is yet to be seen, we won’t get a good idea on that this weekend. I think this will be low scoring but they’ve set the line at 148.5 which is already very low so it’s a hard game to find a decent bet. Isaac Heeney could kick another bag from the midfield if you like 3+ goals
Mr Pineapple thinks – Essendon won’t win another game this year and it’s just a matter of how much they lose this by.
Collingwood $1.62 v Brisbane $2.30
One of the matches of the round, Collingwood have beaten the Lions every game since they beat them in the grand final in 2023. Collingwood haven’t had the best last 3 weeks with 2 losses and just an okay performance against Richmond while the Lions were going ok until a big loss to Gold Coast last week. I’m expecting them to bounce back and play a much better game, but away from home against a Collingwood team that has been resting players with an eye on the bigger picture is going to be a challenge. Nick Daicos has surely been racking up brownlow votes in the last 6 weeks and they’ll need to send someone to him if they are a chance of winning.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I think the pies have a good gauge on how to beat Brisbane and at home they deserve to be favourites. I think Collingwood 1-39 is the best bet here.
St Kilda $1.25 v North Melbourne $4
The Saints pulled off the best every comeback from 46 points down at 3 quarter time last week against Melbourne and celebrated like they’d won the flag, if they carry that momentum into this week it’s bad news for North Melbourne who were pumped by 100+ points last week against Geelong. The Roos look a complete mess and just can’t defend, they’ve given up 100+ 10 times in 19 games this season. Wanganeen-Milera just keeps bumping up his price, last week was maybe his best game ever and the Saints desperately need him to stay. North do have the midfield experience to win this but I don’t think without Larkey and Xerri they are going to be able to generate enough score.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Give me the saints on the back of last weeks amazing come back. North don’t look dangerous enough without Xerri and Larkey they’ll just be hoping not to lose by a big margin again as pressure mounts on coach Alistair Clarkson.
Geelong $1.05 v Port Adelaide $10
Port gave up badly late in the wet to Adelaide in Ken Hinkleys last showdown, they end up losing by 98 points whilst Geelong dominated North to win by 101 with Jeremy Cameron keeping his hopes of kicking 100 alive with 11 goals. Bailey Smith had a career high 43 disposals and a goal and would have only gotten the 2 brownlow votes. Port have been guilty of giving up once they know they have lost so it’s more than likely that they might be competitive early and let it blow out late again this week, they literally have nothing to play for and could potentially have some key players missing this week again.
Mr Pineapple thinks – There is 0% chance that Port cause an upset here, you aren’t getting anything for Geelong to win but they will win by 60+ and expect them to look for Jeremy Cameron all day again to try and help him reach 100 goals. I’d be looking at Geelong to cover the -47.5 line and Cameron to kick 5+
Fremantle $1.15 v Carlton $5.50
Fremantle can’t afford to lose games like this because whilst they are a chance to make top 4, with their draw they are also a chance to miss finals also such is the closeness of the top 9 this season. Carlton farewelled Sam Docherty last week in a loss to Hawthorn but I still believe they are capable of causing an upset on the run home, so this is a danger game for the Dockers. Hayden Young has come back and shown us why he’s arguably Fremantles best player, a welcome return before finals and Luke Jackson keeps getting better proving their two ruck combination with Sam Darcy can work.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I think Fremantle will win, but if you need some value, Carlton are one of the more likely underdogs to win this round. The line is -29.5 for Fremantle, I think the bet here is Fremantle 1-39 because I think Carlton are still capable of keeping it close ish. I’d also be looking at the total score being under 160.5
DOG OF THE ROUND
A hard round for underdogs with most having nearly no chance of winning, the obvious choice is Hawthorn and that’s what I’m going to go with. They have Will Day back and they beat Adelaide earlier this season and I think they are a real chance to upset the Crows because the ladder predictor I’ve done shows that if the Hawks don’t win one or or two of these games they are underdogs in, they won’t make finals and I just can’t imagine a finals series this year without the Hawks in it.
PUNTING PYRAMID BEST BET
I’m going with the Bulldogs to win 1-39 for $2.15, they have the Giants measure and GWS will be without captain Toby Green. The Dogs need to win to keep their finals hopes alive and they have the weapons to beat anyone
MULTI WORTH A PINEAPPLE
Bulldogs Win $1.50
Collingwood Win 1-39 $2.20
Fremantle v Carlton UNDER 160.5 $1.90
$6.27-1
