Round 21 Review
Tonymcconarchie had a huge round scoring the 5 bonus points for a total of 17.06 which brings him within striking distance of the leaders now! Only 1 underdog won as Brisbane beat Collingwood but so many punters need upsets now that we’ll see less and less bonus points. In the last 6 weeks we’ve had 35 matches where the top 9 have played the bottom 9 and only once (Sydney beating Fremantle) has a bottom 9 team won, so the only real opportunity to get some value will be either getting 5 bonus points or correctly picking the winners when we have top 9 playing each other.
Round 22 Tips
Hawthorn $2.30 v Collingwood $1.62
We open the round with really the only game that we don’t already know who will win. Get this right and you should get a perfect round. The Hawks lost one of if not their most valuable player Will Day to the same injury that kept him out most of this season, a massive blow to their finals chances. Hawthorn have been unlucky in that honorable losses like last weeks against top of the table Adelaide aren’t going to get them into finals. It’s pretty simple now – they need to beat Melbourne next week and then either of Collingwood here or Brisbane in the final round and based off the Pies last month where they’ve only won once from four matches it would seem this is the Hawks best chance. 43% of the Pies scoring plays are going through Nick Daicos, never before have we seen such a reliance and if the Hawks can nullify some of his impact they can win this.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’m taking Hawthorn here, it’s basically their first final and they’re getting the pies at the right time. If you get this tip correct, just pick the rest of the favourites for the round and you’ll get 9/9
Geelong $1.01 v Essendon $13
The Bombers were better last week against Sydney in wet conditions but the Cats are coming off basically back to back 100 point wins and it looks like they’re trying to get Jeremy Cameron to 100 goals which is now very much a possibility as he sits on 75 with 3 home and away season matches left plus finals. Geelong may be able to rest a player or two in these final few matches and the Bombers are just hoping they can get to the end of the season without anymore injuries.
Mr Pineapple thinks – There is zero percent chance Essendon get within 10 goals, I think Jeremy Cameron will kick more of a score than Essendon will. The line is -67.5 and Geelong could clear that.
Richmond $3.50 v St Kilda $1.30
Richmond were belted by Gold Coast last week and only scored 2 goals but they would feel like they have a chance this week and next week (vs North) to add another win to their season tally. They do have a few players out now but if they can find someone to nullify Wanganeen-Milera’s influence that would be a good start, he’s been best on ground the last two weeks. The Saints are looking to make it 3 wins in a row and if Wanganeen-Milera can add a couple more best on grounds, he’s very much a sneaky chance in the Brownlow medal count. If Richmond are competitive in the next two rounds I think their supporters would be very happy with season 2025.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Saints should win, they’ve shown enough in the last two weeks to suggest they are in that ring slightly above the bottom 4 clubs. If you want extra value, taking them 1-39 would be a good option.
Brisbane $1.22 v Sydney $4.10
The Lions pulled off an upset beating Collingwood last week, breaking a run of 4 losses to the Pies in a row. At their best the Lions arguably look the most dangerous of any team and Logan Morris was the first 20 year old since Lance Franklin to kick 6 goals on the MCG, it seems they’ve found their replacements for Joe Daniher. Sydney weren’t as dominant against Essendon last week as expected, only winning by 14 points. They’ve got nothing to play for now, whilst the Lions can still finish as high as top of the ladder but as low as 5th, they won’t want to undo the good work last week and drop a game like this.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Last years Grand Finalists have had very contrasting seasons and I can’t see how Brisbane will drop games against teams outside the top 9, despite losing Lachie Neale they still have one of the deepest midfields and should be able to cover the -25.5
Carlton $4.50 v Gold Coast $1.20
The Suns are hitting some form at the right time of year, following up their demolition of Brisbane with an 80+ point victory over Richmond. Noah Anderson had another huge game and is the main danger to Nick Daicos for the Brownlow. Carlton looked like causing an upset against Fremantle before eventually capitulating in the second half, they just can’t put together 4 quarters and Michael Voss is surely in danger of not coaching Carlton next season.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Gold Coast are very much a chance of finishing top 4 and they will need to win games like this and boost their percentage. I think they’ll win, but I’m unsure if they will cover the -29.5, I like the 1-39 option for value instead seeing as it’s a Carlton home game.
Port Adelaide $4 v Fremantle $1.25
Port have checked out, they’ve been belted by 88 and 98 the last two weeks and I’ll be surprised if they get within 10 goals of Fremantle here. The Dockers aren’t known for blowing teams away and they’ve lost Hayden Young for the rest of the season but they will need to boost their percentage so I think this is a game that’s perfectly set up for them to do just that. Patrick Voss has stepped in the second half of the season up as Josh Treacy and Jye Amiss continue to kick goals, both with 3 last week.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Port won’t win another game this season, Fremantle need to win this and by alot to make sure they make finals. Fremantle just need to cover -27.5 for the $1.90, they should do that comfortably.
GWS $1.04 v North Melbourne $9.50
North were better last week against St Kilda but still lost, whilst GWS put in their worst performance of the year as they were belted by 88 points by the Bulldogs. The Giants will welcome back captain Toby Green and can’t afford any more slip ups if they are to play finals, if Hawthorn beat Collingwood on Thursday the pressure will be on the Giants. With North giving up 100 points in 11 of 20 games this year, Jake Stringer, Aaron Cadman and Toby Green could have big days.
Mr Pineapple thinks – With North’s inability to keep opposition under 100 and GWS’s problems defending recently I can see this total going over 165.5 if the weather is okay. There’s no chance GWS will ruin their finals chances with a loss here, it will be a big Giants win.
Melbourne $3.90 v Western Bulldogs $1.25
The Demons sacked their coach this week, a move that was reportedly not taken well by the players. Although Melbourne are coming off a big win, it was only against West Coast. The Bulldogs are flying and have won their past 2 matches by 189 points. With the divide at Melbourne and the Bulldogs needing to keep winning to make finals I can see only one result here. Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton have been the best forward combo since Sam Darcy returned and the Demons will be in for a tough day.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I can’t believe the line is only -25.5, given what’s gone down at Melbourne this week I’m expecting a 10+ goal victory to the Bulldogs, it’s been what they’ve done all season against the bottom 9. I don’t think Melbourne will be able to score enough to hold up their end of the total score going over 176.5 either.
West Coast $15 v Adelaide $1.01
This isn’t looking good for West Coast, they were without Harley Reid last week as he misses the remainder of the season with an ankle injury and they went down to Melbourne by 83 points. Adelaide are now premiership favourites and have a very potent attack, one of Riley Thilthorp, Darcy Fogary or Tex Walker could kick 10 this week. This will certainly be one way traffic and there’s no way I can talk you into tipping anything other than a huge Adelaide win!
Mr Pineapple thinks – the $1.90 line is -60.5 and Adelaide could have that covered by half time. Someone from their forward line will get off the chain, you’d have to say Thilthorp would be most likely to kick 5+
DOG OF THE ROUND
Realistically Hawthorn are the only underdog with a chance of winning this week, such is the unevenness of the competition this season, none of the bottom 9 stand a chance to beat a team in the top 9. Will Day is a big loss but the Hawks are playing for their spot in finals and the Pies haven’t exactly been great losing 3 of their last 4.
PUNTING PYRAMID BEST BET
I’m going to go with the Western Bulldogs -25.5, they have blown the bottom teams away all season and I think the rough week Melbourne have had losing their coach will have a negative effect on the playing group.
MULTI WORTH A PINEAPPLE
Hawthorn +7.5 Win $1.90
Geelong -67.5 Win $1.90
Adelaide -60.5 Win $1.90
$6.85-1
