Round 22 Review
Nikia2 was able to score a perfect round getting the 5 bonus points for a total of 19.8, it’s tight at the top with just 14 points separating 1st to 10th. We saw two upsets with the Hawks almost certainly booking their spot in the finals with a big win over Collingwood and Sydney got revenge on last years Grand Final loss beating the Lions by 2 points in a thriller.
Round 23 Tips
Essendon $3.90 v St Kilda $1.26
The Saints might have won their past 3 matches but they have hardly been impressive in the two most recent with close wins over struggling North Melbourne and Richmond. They produced the worst ball movement game of the season in terms of speed to attack last week according to champion data. Essendon had somewhat of a moral victory only losing by 44 points to Geelong when many expected it would be closer to 100, but they lose Captain Zac Merrett with a broken hand this week which will really hurt their chances.
Mr Pineapple thinks – The Saints should win this but I think it will be low scoring and close. I’d be taking St Kilda 1-39 and I also like the total score to be under 169.5
Fremantle $1.77 v Brisbane $2.05
The Dockers have been making a habit of coming from behind at 3 quarter time and winning, whilst it’s good that they’ve won 10 of their last 11 matches, they won’t want to be giving Brisbane a lead. The Lions have had an up and down last month with losses to Gold Coast and Sydney and all of a sudden went from fighting for top spot to potentially missing finals if they lose these next two games. They’ve copped some injuries, Lachie Neale won’t play again unless Brisbane make finals but luckily the Lions have great depth in the midfield.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I just can’t imagine Brisbane not making finals, they got a response the week after losing to Gold Coast when they beat Collingwood and whilst Fremantle have been winning, it’s been a lot of close matches. I think the reigning premiers bounce back this week and win as underdogs here.
Gold Coast $1.52 v GWS $2.55
The Giants are getting injuries at the wrong time of the year, they will be without Jake Stringer and Jesse Hogan leaving their forward line looking much less dangerous. The Suns are trying to lock up a top 4 finish and double chance for the first time in their history and with the form of Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell it’s looking likely that will happen.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I think Gold Coast are peaking at the right time and the injuries to the Giants is going to make this a very tough trip. I’ll take Gold Coast to get this done.
Carlton $1.53 v Port Adelaide $2.50
The Blues have backed in their coach Michael Voss for next season and they weren’t bad last week despite losing to Gold Coast. Port were so close to beating Fremantle last week, only going down by a goal in the final minute. I think the home ground advantage will really favour Carlton here and they really need a win for their coach, whereas it’s the opposite as Port know their coach only has 2 matches left.
Mr Pineapple thinks – This should be close, I’d take Carlton 1-39 and I think this will be low scoring so I’m backing the total score under 172.5
Hawthorn $1.28 v Melbourne $3.75
The Hawks basically booked their spot in finals by beating Collingwood last week, they need to make sure they don’t slip up this week otherwise last weeks win will be for nothing. Melbourne sacked their coach and got a decent response from players last week, only going down to the Bulldogs by a goal. I’ll have to wait to see if Melbourne bring any players back in but either way they will be taking on one of the in form teams of the competition who need this win to 100% lock in playing finals.
Mr Pineapple thinks – The Hawks are back to their best, even James Siciliy has turned his mid season form slump around and they should cover the -22.5 line here
Adelaide $1.40 v Collingwood $2.90
The match of the round for me, with the media going crazy saying Collingwood are done, they will miss top 4 after being 10 points clear on top only 5 weeks ago, I don’t agree with that narrative. The Pies will be without Jeremy Howe after a sickening concussion but they could get back Bobby Hill and Beau Mcreery and I’m expecting them to bounce back. Adelaide are the new flag favourites and it’s easy to see why, they have the best Defence and attack and captain Jordan Dawson is in brownlow medal winning form whilst some are saying Nick Daicos is playing injured so it will be an interesting battle in the midfield.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’m going to back Collingwood here, because of the big price difference I’m taking the value. I have no knock on Adelaide as they are playing the best football in the league at the moment but I just think the Pies will find a way to prove they should still be feared.
North Melbourne $1.57 v Richmond $2.40
A great chance here for both teams to get a win to boost moral at the end of season, this should be a close match down in Hobart. Richmond almost got over the line against St Kilda last week in a low scoring match and Richmond supporters would be much happier than North supporters with how their seasons have gone. North did win by 4 points when they met earlier this season but Richmond have improved since then and North have consistently conceded big scores against them.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’m taking the underdogs in Richmond here, their young players are going well but it’s been Richmond’s more experienced players, who are premiership players that will be the reason why they win this in a low scoring match.
Sydney $3.05 v Geelong $1.38
The Swans showed why they will be feared again in 2026, Isaac Heeney has been on fire with another bag of 5 goals last week as they defeated Brisbane. They changed their game style and played a much higher handball, metres gained attacking style and if they bring that again they will be a big chance to score another upset, especially at home. Geelong are trying to get Jeremy Cameron to 100 goals but he was inaccurate last week with 4.5 and they weren’t very impressive against the Bombers.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Sydney are a sneaky chance to cause an upset here! If it were just a normal tipping competition I’d still take Geelong but given we are getting $3.05 I’m picking the Swans. The best bet is probably Geelong 1-39 if you want a single bet.
Western Bulldogs $1.01 v West Coast $16
The Eagles almost caused the upset of the season when they pushed flag favourites Adelaide all the way but they face a very tough opponent this week who have consistently belted teams in the bottom 8. Aaron Naughton and Sam Darcy have been on fire kicking bags of goals, Bontempelli is in Brownlow Medal form as is Ed Richard’s and West Coast is still without Harley Reid.
Mr Pineapple thinks – You’re getting absolutely nothing at $1.01 for the Dogs to win, but they’ll win this by 60+ so I can’t talk you into taking the $16 on offer for West Coast. Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton will kick 10+ between them.
Dog of the Round
Brisbane are the most likely underdog to win this round, Chris Fagan is good at getting a response after losses and this will be a step up from the teams Freo have been beating lately.
Punting Pyramid Best Bet
Gold Coast are my best bet this week, they’re flying and the Giants have some key outs. It’s on the Gold Coast and they are very hard to beat at home.
Multi Worth a Pineapple
Sydney +17.5 Win $1.90
Brisbane +3.5 Win $1.90
Gold Coast Win $1.53
$5.52-1
