MrPineapple’s UPC Strategy
If you’re reading this I’m going to assume you enjoy a punt on the horses of a weekend (or any day that ends in y if you’re like me). But what you need to understand is that there is a big difference in what you might back to win with a traditional bookie compared to UPC’s Showndown tournament’s where it’s player v player format. Previously I had just one strategy but with the inclusion of the 100k+ Jackpot recently, I now employ two very different strategies.
Strategy 1 – The Jackpot Strategy
In order to win the Jackpot you need to pick 10/12 (10% of Jackpot), 11/12 (25% of Jackpot) or a perfect 12/12 for 100% of the Grand Jackpot which currently sits at just over 103k.
If you use my Jackpot strategy don’t expect to win the Showdown 1st prize, you might be asking yourself ‘how can I pick 12/12 and not win both? Well let’s assume 12 favourites win paying $2 each, another punter could be scoring more points for roughies placing where their place odds are higher than the favourites win odds. This strategy is simply picking the horse you think wins each race regardless of the odds.
Strategy 2 – Win The Showdown
This strategy is almost completely opposite to the Jackpot strategy, for example you would never pick a horse paying under $2 for the win because you’ll get more points usually for the other runners just to place and there’s also the chance that the longer odds chances win the race. In fact my general rule is I typically won’t tip anything paying under $5 for the win. Let’s look at the 5 most recent Saturday winning scores, they were 58, 64, 76, 68 and 72 for an average of 67.6 points needed to win the showdown. I’ve seen much higher scores needed in the past but my theory is when there are a lot of Group level races in the showdown we don’t see as many big roughies winning. So working off the past 5 showdowns you need to be scoring an average of 5.6 points in each of the 12 races. That’s equivalent to picking 12/12 winners paying roughly $4/$1.60. Nobody has yet picked 12/12 or even 10/12 so you need more value in each tip!
If you’re like me, part of the fun of a UPC Showdown is that you can enjoy watching the races all day from just one entry fee (although I highly suggest having multiple entries). I tend to pick some very high odds roughies in the final few legs so that mathematically you still likely have a live chance of winning compared to for example being 20 points behind the leader with two races to go but you’ve tipped two $5 chances and cannot win.
I could write all day about my strategy, which horses I pick and why but I’ll give you a few tips quickly on how to win the showdown
- Buy multiple entries and cover different horses in each entry, rarely will I have the same tip in multiple of my entries. If you are on a budget and can’t afford multiple 100% entries I believe having 4 x 25% entries covering more outcomes is a smarter strategy.
- Stick to minimum odds of $5 for the win, don’t pick favourites
- Firstly I check to see if there’s any big roughies (I’m talking $30+) I can make a case for winning, if not I’ll rank the horses paying from $10-$30 and go with the one I think represents the most value. On the rare occasion I’ll pick something paying $5-$10 if I really like it.
So there you have it! Mr Pineapples basic guide on how to win UPC Showdowns! One last tip is if you are someone who likes to buy quick picks, go and edit it and take out any favourites and swap the pick to something paying higher odds.
SATURDAY 5th April Review
A good day last Saturday, I tipped 7 winners from the 12 races including 5 of the first 6 winners! Our best bet Statuario won and my ‘Fave that won’t win’ Kings Valley ran 2nd last!
SATURDAY 12th April Showdown Tips
This weeks showdown includes the later races at Randwick, Bendigo and Doomben. I’ll be picking a couple of value tips for my ‘win the showndown strategy’ and a couple of horses at shorter odds that I’d be selecting in my ticket for the ‘Jackpot Strategy’.
Bendigo Race 6 – 1100m BM84 – Shesallshenanigans $6/$1.85
Drops back in grade here after starting $2.25 in open class last start and only going down by 0.2L. Will only carry 54kg’s with Logan Bates 3kg claim. $1.80 favourite Tatsumaki who likes to lead has drawn widest, which I think sets this race up perfectly for Logan Bates to try and make Tatsumaki work hard up front and with the light weight I’m expecting Shesallshenanigans to be stronger late. Would prefer her over the 1200m but she’s won 2 of her 3 starts at Bendigo.
Bendigo Race 7 1400m Gold Bracelet – Wings of Song $11/$3
I’ve followed this Mare ever since she came over to Tassie and won all our 3yo feature races including the Guineas and Oaks, she was just way to good. She won 1st up over 1400m last prep and although I’d prefer her over further later this prep she can win this at big odds, she opened at $18’s and is already into $11’s. My only concern is where she lands from barrier 12, I’d prefer to see her midfield but I think over the shorter distance she will end up getting further back toward the tail, but I’ve seen her come from last and win multiple times here in Tassie last year!
Bendigo Race 9 1600m Golden Mile – Rhinoceros $21/$5.50
I tipped him at $31’s last week at Caulfield and whilst we go up in grade here we now drop 5kg’s on the last run and I’d lie to see Jett Stanley take him forward and put in another gritty performance. The likely leader Regal Zues is jumping from 1200m to 1600m and the favourite Enxuto has drawn the car park so I think with the light weight we could see a repeat of last run, we’ll be ahead of the main dangers with 200m to go I’m confident of that!
Randwick Race 6 2400m Australian Oaks – Leica Lucy $4.60/$1.40
I don’t think it’s a very deep race and our best chance from Australia is the drifting favourite Treasurethe Moment who’s out to $1.75 from $1.60 and I don’t think the extra 400m will really suit her. Money is already coming for the NZ filly and she’s drawn great in barrier 1 and already proven over the 2400m, with J Mac on board I think she will continue her winning ways here. If you wanted something at bigger odds I think Verona Rose will appreciate the step up to 2400m at $11’s.
Randwick Race 9 1600m Queen of the Turf – Amelia’s Jewell $12/$3
Fan Girl will be hard to beat but I’m not taking $2 when she might need some luck. Instead I think Amelia’s Jewell will end up just behind the speed off the rail and can hopefully pinch a nice lead on Fan Girl and she runs into some trouble. She’s won 3rd up twice before and if we can get some good weather and the track a little firmer than last week, she’s right in this at double figure odds so you’ll get more for Amelia’s Jewell to place than you will for Fan Girl to win.
BEST BET – Randwick R6 – Leica Lucy $4.60
BEST ROUGHIE – Bendigo R7 – Wings of Song $11/$3
FAVOURITE THAT WONT WIN – Treasurethe Moment $1.75 Randwick R6
MEGA MULTI
Leica Lucy $4.60
Wings of Song Place $3
Via Sistina $1.90
Amelia’s Jewell Place $3
$78-1
