MrPineapple’s UPC Strategy
If you’re reading this I’m going to assume you enjoy a punt on the horses of a weekend (or any day that ends in y if you’re like me). But what you need to understand is that there is a big difference in what you might back to win with a traditional bookie compared to UPC’s Showndown tournament’s where it’s player v player format. Previously I had just one strategy but with the inclusion of the 100k+ Jackpot recently, I now employ two very different strategies.
Strategy 1 – The Jackpot Strategy
In order to win the Jackpot you need to pick 10/12 (10% of Jackpot), 11/12 (25% of Jackpot) or a perfect 12/12 for 100% of the Grand Jackpot which currently sits at just over 103k.
If you use my Jackpot strategy don’t expect to win the Showdown 1st prize, you might be asking yourself ‘how can I pick 12/12 and not win both? Well let’s assume 12 favourites win paying $2 each, another punter could be scoring more points for roughies placing where their place odds are higher than the favourites win odds. This strategy is simply picking the horse you think wins each race regardless of the odds.
Strategy 2 – Win The Showdown
This strategy is almost completely opposite to the Jackpot strategy, for example you would never pick a horse paying under $2 for the win because you’ll get more points usually for the other runners just to place and there’s also the chance that the longer odds chances win the race. In fact my general rule is I typically won’t tip anything paying under $5 for the win. Let’s look at the 5 most recent Saturday winning scores, they were 58, 64, 76, 68 and 72 for an average of 67.6 points needed to win the showdown. I’ve seen much higher scores needed in the past but my theory is when there are a lot of Group level races in the showdown we don’t see as many big roughies winning. So working off the past 5 showdowns you need to be scoring an average of 5.6 points in each of the 12 races. That’s equivalent to picking 12/12 winners paying roughly $4/$1.60. Nobody has yet picked 12/12 or even 10/12 so you need more value in each tip!
If you’re like me, part of the fun of a UPC Showdown is that you can enjoy watching the races all day from just one entry fee (although I highly suggest having multiple entries). I tend to pick some very high odds roughies in the final few legs so that mathematically you still likely have a live chance of winning compared to for example being 20 points behind the leader with two races to go but you’ve tipped two $5 chances and cannot win.
I could write all day about my strategy, which horses I pick and why but I’ll give you a few tips quickly on how to win the showdown
- Buy multiple entries and cover different horses in each entry, rarely will I have the same tip in multiple of my entries. If you are on a budget and can’t afford multiple 100% entries I believe having 4 x 25% entries covering more outcomes is a smarter strategy.
- Stick to minimum odds of $5 for the win, don’t pick favourites
- Firstly I check to see if there’s any big roughies (I’m talking $30+) I can make a case for winning, if not I’ll rank the horses paying from $10-$30 and go with the one I think represents the most value. On the rare occasion I’ll pick something paying $5-$10 if I really like it.
So there you have it! MrPineapples basic guide on how to win UPC Showdowns! One last tip is if you are someone who likes to buy quick picks, go and edit it and take out any favourites and swap the pick to something paying higher odds.
SATURDAY 12th April Showdown Review
SATURDAY 19th April Showdown Tips
This weeks showdown includes the later races at Mornington, Eagle Farm & Randwixk. I’ll be picking a couple of value tips for my ‘win the showndown strategy’ and a couple of horses at shorter odds that I’d be selecting in my ticket for the ‘Jackpot Strategy’.
Randwick Race 7 – Buffalo $6.50/$2.30
This fella won his maiden over 1200m before flashing home with great closing sectionals in last weekends Group 1 Sires Produce behind Vinrock. He’s definately one that is screaming out for further ground and gets to the mile here. Of the 3 chances in the market ahead of him, only Within The Law will be ahead of him at the turn in my opinion so he won’t have to come from last as he tried last start. Expect him to start shorter than $6.50 as Nepotism is already a drifting favourite and will be my ‘Favourite that can’t win’ this week.
Randwick Race 8 – Briasa $3.70/$1.70
Out to the 1400m for the first time is the only query here, but I think this fella will be fine. If Tyler Schiller can just get a similar run as last start which I think he will given they’ve drawn well (barrier 4) again, I can see him camping just behind the leaders and finding a run in the straight and finishing over the top of them again. Broadsiding will probably lead but is dropping back from 2000m to 1400m so I’m not really keen on that lead up to this, whilst I tipped Sunshine in Paris in her last start where she was 2L behind Briasa I think over 1400m she could be one at bigger odds who’s flying home late, currently at $15-1.
Randwick Race 9 – Phearson $41/$8
It’s been a while since the two favourites Mazu and Dragonstone have won and to be fair, there’s not actually much good recent form amongst this entire field. I think it’s going to be a race where whoever gets the best run probably wins it. Phearson has a good first up record with 2 wins and 3 places in 5 starts. He’s always liked a bit of give in the ground and from barrier 2 I think Zac Wadick should have him right up on speed, possibly leading. In a race where nothing really stands out to me I’m happy to take odds of $41.
Randwick Race 10 – Strait Acer $11/$3.60
This is a wide open contest for mine but I’m looking to a blackbooker of mine in Strait Acer! When he’s comes to Randwick he’s performed and Zac Lloyd stays aboard here. Cool Jakey and Tavi Time will be the dangers ahead and behind in the run but as you know in UPC Showdowns you need value. I like the fact they’ve opted for 2 solid trials and kicking off the prep over 1400m here in a BM100 at Randwick. If you need more value then the 3 I’ve motioned I think Punch Lane will improve 2nd up and be right up on pace with its chance at $17’s.
Mornington Race 10 – Young Werther $9.50/$2.80
Call me nostalgic, but this horse has won me a lot of money in its career. He’s a 7yo old now and was better over further but a race like a Mornington Cup is exactly the type of race I think he can get up and win at odds. He’ll need some luck from barrier 1 and I’m hoping the pace is on and the gaps appear. I think Bankers Choice at similar odds is also a great choice, given his class also and the fact he’ll be up on pace with less luck needed, take your pick. It’s always hard these Cup races where you have the older brigade doing the circuit vs the up and comers but in this race I’m just so against Berkshire Breeze given the traffick I’m expecting Ben Melham to run into on him.
BEST BET – Randwick R8 Briasa Win $3.70
BEST ROUGHIE – Randwick R10 Strait Acer $11
FAVOURITE THAT WONT WIN – Randwick Race 7 Nepotism $3.70
MEGA MULTI
Randwick R7 Buffalo Place $2.30
Randwick R8 Briasa Win $3.70
Randwick R10 Strait Acer Place $3.60
$36-1
