MrPineapple’s UPC Strategy
If you’re reading this I’m going to assume you enjoy a punt on the horses of a weekend (or any day that ends in y if you’re like me). But what you need to understand is that there is a big difference in what you might back to win with a traditional bookie compared to UPC’s Showndown tournament’s where it’s player v player format. Previously I had just one strategy but with the inclusion of the 100k+ Jackpot recently, I now employ two very different strategies.
Strategy 1 – The Jackpot Strategy
In order to win the Jackpot you need to pick 10/12 (10% of Jackpot), 11/12 (25% of Jackpot) or a perfect 12/12 for 100% of the Grand Jackpot which currently sits at just over 103k.
If you use my Jackpot strategy don’t expect to win the Showdown 1st prize, you might be asking yourself ‘how can I pick 12/12 and not win both? Well let’s assume 12 favourites win paying $2 each, another punter could be scoring more points for roughies placing where their place odds are higher than the favourites win odds. This strategy is simply picking the horse you think wins each race regardless of the odds.
Strategy 2 – Win The Showdown
This strategy is almost completely opposite to the Jackpot strategy, for example you would never pick a horse paying under $2 for the win because you’ll get more points usually for the other runners just to place and there’s also the chance that the longer odds chances win the race. In fact my general rule is I typically won’t tip anything paying under $5 for the win. Let’s look at the 5 most recent Saturday winning scores, they were 58, 64, 76, 68 and 72 for an average of 67.6 points needed to win the showdown. I’ve seen much higher scores needed in the past but my theory is when there are a lot of Group level races in the showdown we don’t see as many big roughies winning. So working off the past 5 showdowns you need to be scoring an average of 5.6 points in each of the 12 races. That’s equivalent to picking 12/12 winners paying roughly $4/$1.60. Nobody has yet picked 12/12 or even 10/12 so you need more value in each tip!
If you’re like me, part of the fun of a UPC Showdown is that you can enjoy watching the races all day from just one entry fee (although I highly suggest having multiple entries). I tend to pick some very high odds roughies in the final few legs so that mathematically you still likely have a live chance of winning compared to for example being 20 points behind the leader with two races to go but you’ve tipped two $5 chances and cannot win.
I could write all day about my strategy, which horses I pick and why but I’ll give you a few tips quickly on how to win the showdown
- Buy multiple entries and cover different horses in each entry, rarely will I have the same tip in multiple of my entries. If you are on a budget and can’t afford multiple 100% entries I believe having 4 x 25% entries covering more outcomes is a smarter strategy.
- Stick to minimum odds of $5 for the win, don’t pick favourites
- Firstly I check to see if there’s any big roughies (I’m talking $30+) I can make a case for winning, if not I’ll rank the horses paying from $10-$30 and go with the one I think represents the most value. On the rare occasion I’ll pick something paying $5-$10 if I really like it.
So there you have it! MrPineapples basic guide on how to win UPC Showdowns! One last tip is if you are someone who likes to buy quick picks, go and edit it and take out any favourites and swap the pick to something paying higher odds.
SATURDAY 19th April Review
Bagwan Rasnee held on with 5 winners for a total of 53.3 points last week, it was very tight at the top with alot of punters all anxiously watching the final race, thats the great thing about UPC Showdowns, if you have a roughie in the last race, you could still be a live chance to win!
SATURDAY 24th April Showdown Tips
This weeks showdown includes the later races at Moonee Valley, Eagle Farm and Randwick. I’ll be picking a couple of value tips for my ‘win the showndown strategy’ and give you my best bet at shorter odds that I’d be selecting in my ticket for the ‘Jackpot Strategy’ or you could just back it to win on UPCoz.
Moonee Valley Race 6 – Bold Response $8/$2.70
Won here two starts again before tackling a tougher BM74 at Caulfield where he was only beaten by 1.75 lengths. Will only carry 55.5kg with the 2kg claim of Jaylah Kennedy and I can see her aiming to lead start to finish. The favourite Barbaric Lad only finished 0.25 lengths ahead of Bold Response in that same race at Caulfield but we meet him 5kg’s better off at the weights here today and with the short straight at Moonee Valley Daniel Moore will have less time to make up ground. The market is reflecting my opinion as Barbaric Lad has drifted from $4.40 out to $5.50 whilst there’s been early support for Bold Response $11 into $8. It’s a wide open race but I’m confident we at least finish ahead of the current favourite.
Moonee Valley Race 7 – Dreams $7.50/$2.45
I’m liking a lot about Logan Bates chances on Dreams here for a few reasons. She’ll only be carrying the 51kg’s with the 3kg claim. This lightly raced filly won her maiden at this track by 6 lengths two starts ago and will be carrying 6kg’s less today. I always prefer to be on leaders or on pace runners at Moonee Valley because of the short straight and I think if she’s jumps well can just run them off their legs with a catch me if you can type ride. There’s also been early support shortening from $11 into $7.50 whilst the favourite let’sfacethemusic will need to make up a lot of ground late.
Moonee Valley Race 8 – Muktamil $15/$4.40
This fella won his trial over 1200m before being drawn wide 1st up over 1600m at Sandown. He was always going to improve off his 1st up effort and he did just that, winning nicely over 2000m at Ballarat. Will strip even fitter today 3rd up and make it back to back wins. I do like the favourite dropping back in grade and with the 2kg claim here so if I was doing my ‘Jackpot’ entry I’d tip Fortune, but give me the value of Muktamil at $15’s.
Randwick Race 7 – Trafalgar Square $14/$4.20
The favourite Lonhros Queen will be hard to beat here if she doesn’t get stuck on the rail midfield, I’d pick her in my Jackpot entry because she’s a mare in form but I’m looking elsewhere for some more value and I liked the 1st up run of Trafalgar Square only going down by 1L at Warwick Farm. Drops 4kg from that day to carry just the 52kg here. I think Winona Costin should get a run midfield off the rail and have her chance if good enough down the straight.
Randwick Race 8 – Lavish Empire $20/$5
His last two runs have been great, winning the Muswellbrook Cup after going down by 1.6 lengths to Zouatica in a tougher race than this. That form reads well here and he will get an economical run from barrier 2, I think he’ll need a good ride and some luck because I’ve got him worse than midfield on the rail. If the gaps appear at the right time or Alysha Collet is able to be a bit more positive on him early he’s good enough to win this at big odds! Of the more fancied runners I think Cool Jakey will run well up on pace carrying only 52.5kg.
BEST BET – Randwick Race 10 Know Thyself $2.35
BEST ROUGHIE – Randwick Race 7 Trafalgar Square $14/$4.20
FAVOURITE THAT WONT WIN – Moonee Valley Race 6 Barbaric Lad $5.50
MEGA MULTI
Know Thyself Win $2.35
Dreams Place $2.45
Bold Response Win $8
$46-1
