Round 14 Tips & Odds
Round 13 Review
We just witnessed the lowing scoring round of AFL in over 25 years, with a lot of close games it was HickeyK who tipped 7/8 missing the perfect round by tipping GWS to beat Port, which was the biggest upset of the round. Round 15 to me looks like a much easier round to tip with in my opinion only two 50/50 matches.
ROUND 14 TIPS
Western Bulldogs $1.34 v St Kilda $3.37
The Bulldogs let themselves down last week against the Hawks, they’ll be looking to bounce back and could regain young gun Sam Darcy already which would really help their forward line with Naughton struggling as their lone key target. They don’t have any excuses now if Darcy returns as they have gotten most of their key players back. The Saints are coming off the bye following their win over Melbourne and these are the games they must win to keep their finals chances alive. They’ll come in fairly confident knowing they have been able to upset teams above them and the Bulldogs seem to drop games at times when they shouldn’t. Jack Higgins will look to hit the scoreboard after a quiet game against Melbourne, he’s still 5th in the Coleman and they’ll need him to kick multiple goals.
Mr Pineapple thinks – The Bulldogs have let me down a few times this season but I really believe they are close to top 4 caliber and will show that on Thursday night. If you are way down the leaderboard this is one of the games this round where you could take the Roughie in St Kilda because if they play the game on their terms, make it low scoring, it could be close but I’ll be taking the Bulldogs seeing as it’s a Thursday night game and my hopes of the 5 bonus points are alive. If you want more value on a single bet Bulldogs 1-39 looks good.
Hawthorn $1.90 v Adelaide $1.90
Launceston gets to host probably the game of the round on Friday night. Hawthorn got back on the winners list with a good win over the Bulldogs last week whilst Adelaide cemented their reputation as a contender with a win over last years premiers, holding on against Brisbane who probably should have won with the amount of shots they missed in the last quarter. With Sicily out, the hawks looked to have more run from defense and Nick Watson should return from an illness to give them even more run and spark. Josh Rachele has been in great goal kicking form, with 3 last week whilst captain Jordan Dawson has added another string to his bow with his forward marking ability.
Mr Pineapple thinks – The Hawks love playing in Launceston, it’s sometimes a little windy at UTAS stadium but they play the conditions well. It will be a cold Friday night and possibly a little slippery which I think suits the hawks. It’s the toughest game of the round to tip but I think if the hawks come to play with the pressure they brought last week they’ll win this in a close game.
Brisbane $1.35 v GWS $3.20
GWS were really disappointing last week, losing to Port Adelaide and I’m worried for their season, they seem the most likely of the top 8 to lose their finals position. Brisbane dominated the final quarter and should have beaten Adelaide and can’t be that wasteful in front of goals again. Will Ashcroft is having a great season as is his younger brother Levi. I think Brisbane’s defense match up well on GWS’s forwards and the Lions have the advantage and depth through the midfield. GWS really need some big games from key players like Jesse Hogan and Toby Greene up forward as they’ve struggled to score recently.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Back at home Brisbane will be too good for an inconsistent GWS. The only way I can see GWS winning this is if Brisbane are as wayward in front of goal as they were in the last quarter last week. If you are way down the leaderboard maybe you need to pick a few of these underdogs this round though but I think there’s better options.
Essendon $4.75 v Geelong $1.19
The Bombers were jumped early against Carlton last week before winning the last 3 quarters, eventually going down by just 8 points. Bailey Smith was a late withdrawal last weekend but the Cats were still too good in the wet comfortably beating Gold Coast. Essendon welcomed back Darcy Parish who collected 31 touches and Nic Martin is almost an A-Grader now, with 32 and 1 goal. Peter Wright got back to some form with 3 goals and will need to bring that form again if they’re a chance to beat Geelong. With Bailey Smith out Max Holmes had a career high 40 touches, with Smith set to return this week their midfield is looking dangerous. The Bombers have been involved in alot of close matches this season and look like they could keep this close-ish.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I think Geelong win but if I’m taking a single bet I’d be looking at 1-39 for more value, but as for this tipping competition I’m confidently picking the Cats.
North Melbourne $5.20 v Fremantle $1.16
It was an ugly game last week with North beating West Coast by 10 points, but they got the job done like they needed to. Fremantle are returning after a week off following their win over Gold Coast the week before. Voss was accurate up forward for once with 3.1 and Shai Bolton was influential with 20 touches and 3 goals. Fremantle’s midfield is their strength and that’s where North are strong also, Colby McKercher showed their depth with 35 touches but I think the Dockers will still take the chocolates there. Sometimes teams are a bit slow coming off a bye but that’s probably the only hope North have here is if they’re able to get a jump early.
Mr Pineapple thinks – If you’re way down the leaderboard the $5.20 on offer for North is tempting here simply because of how teams are often bad after a bye and Fremantle were a little shaky early on. I think they win this comfortably but I like the total points under 167.5!
Port Adelaide $1.78 v Melbourne $2.02
Port Adelaide surprised me last week and mathematically kept their finals hopes alive by beating GWS and it’s a similar position for both teams this week, although very unlikely either team end up making finals. Melbourne will be coming off a shorter break, having just lost by a point to Collingwood. I’m surprised Melbourne are underdogs here having almost beat this years flag favourites. It was wet and Ed Langon sacrificed his own game to try and tag Nick Daicos out of the game and we finished with some interesting scenes as Steven May asked captain Max Gawn what he was thinking as Max made a huge error that killed any chance of a win late for the Demons. Zac Butters has been huge along with Captain Connor Rozee and they’ll need to have big games because I think Melbournes defence will be too good for Port’s key forwards.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I’m with the underdogs here and think Melbourne have looked good in the last 7 rounds if you forget the Fremantle game two weeks ago. I won’t trust Port for the rest of this season as they’ve showed the ability to just give up too many times.
West Coast $4.20 v Carlton $1.24
West Coast were wasteful kicking 6.16 against North and will think they probably should have won that game. They will be back at their proper home ground after the trip to Bunbury and should believe they’re a decent chance here against an inconsistent Carlton. The Blues looked excellent in first quarter before falling back in that habit of blowing big leads, eventually winning an arm wrestle by 8 points.
The Eagles had a very even team effort with no real standouts last week, but would be happy with the development of Harley Reid who’s playing consistent football in the middle but the question is where are the goals going to come from.
Mr Pineapple thinks – Carlton will be looking to just play 4 quarters of consistent football as if they do that, they should win this. But again, if you’re way down the leaderboard this is a game where you need to take the value of the underdog.
Punting Pyramid Best Bet
Brisbane at home should be way too strong for a struggling GWS, especially if they kick straight. The $1.90 line is only -19.5 so I’ll be taking that!
DOG OF THE ROUND – I can’t believe Melbourne aren’t favourites against Port. Yes it’s in Adelaide but that’s the only advantage I give Port, I think Melbourne’s back line will be too strong for Ports forwards and I think the Demons get back on the winners list.
MULTI WORTH A PINEAPPLE
Western Bulldogs $1.32
Brisbane -19.5 Win $1.90
Melbourne +2.5 Win $1.90
Carlton Win $1.24
$5.90-1
