Round 14 Review
Round 13 saw 6 of the 7 favourites win but we still did not have anyone score a perfect but FlickPassToPat went closest with 11.27 only missing the Port Adelaide win! With the bye rounds continuing we have just the 7 games this round with Adelaide, Hawthorn, Melbourne and West Coast sitting out round 15!
ROUND 15 TIPS
Fremantle $1.17 v Essendon $5
The Dockers survived a scare against North Melbourne last week, only winning by 6 points in a game where it was leaders Caleb Serong (36 disposals, 1 goal) and Andrew Brayshaw (31 touches) along with Patrick Voss up forward (3 goals) did just enough to get them across the line. Luke Jackson is proving he can play forward if needed also with 2 goals which is always handy coming from a ruckman! The Bombers were given a football lesson against Geelong to the tune of 95 points, the gap between their younger players and Geelongs who on average had an extra 50 games experience made a massive difference. It was again the Bombers more experienced players who did the bulk of the work with Merrett, Martin and Roberts the main contributors. The Bombers have given up some big scores this season which will make this game interesting as Fremantle is more often involved in low scoring games and interestingly, there were two games played on this ground last round, then State of Origin Wednesday and this is a Thursday night game and it’s been belting down so it could be a wet muddy low scoring affair?
Mr Pineapple thinks – Essendon have been decimated by injuries more so than any other team this season and it’s the 4-7 young players being asked to step up when they’re not quite ready that have allowed teams to kick big scores on them. I just can’t see them being competitive enough for 4 quarters even though Fremantle have been up and down themselves, this isn’t a game I can tip the Bombers in. With the wet weather expected Fremantle 1-39 would be advice on a single bet as it should be low scoring.
Geelong $1.40 v Brisbane $2.85
The Lions continue to lose games to wayward kicking in front of goal, it’s really becoming a habit now across two seasons. The gap between teams in the top 10 is so close that you can’t afford to missing as many opportunities as the Lions are. Geelong are flying, they find themselves 2nd on the ladder and have their season set up perfectly. The Lions midfield is their strength so I’m excited to see how Brownlow Medal favourite Bailey Smith and his partner in crime Max Holmes fair against the more experienced Brisbane midfielders.
Mr Pineapple thinks – The fact that this is at GMHBA stadium makes this slightly easier for me to pick the cats, Brisbane have not won in Geelong for 21 years. I’m not fully writing Brisbane off, despite losing key back Jack Payne, I just think the Cats are operating a lot better currently. Cats 1-39 for me!
Carlton $1.25 v North Melbourne $4.10
Carlton just keep doing Carlton things, again looking like one of the better teams in first quarters before getting beaten after quarter time and just hanging on. They’re lucky it’s been against teams like West Coast and Essendon recently and you could put North in that category but North are travelling a bit better than meets the eye. This is a genuine danger game for Carlton is they play like they have after quarter time again. North have the midfield to compete with the Blues and with Paul Curtis back to crumb to Larkey, I can see them making this a close game. Charlie Curnow is also a chance to miss and Harry McKay is out so that’s a huge blow for the Blues!
Mr Pineapple thinks – There’s no way Carlton have shown the consistency to warrant being $1.25 in this game, I’m taking the big odds of $4.10 on the Roo’s here and unless you are in the top 5 in the leaderboard, you should too! You can get them at +24.5 $1.90 line also which I’d take know before we might get some team changes that favour the Roo’s.
Port Adelaide $1.55 v Sydney $2.45
These two teams have been equally as disappointing this season, neither will play finals after Port played in a prelim and Sydney lost a grand final last year. Sydney have at least had injuries and a new coach as excuses but they do get back some key players this weekend in Joel Amarty up forward and potentially, the most important players they have missed all season with a broken ankle in Errol Gulden. If Gulden is named, you’ll see Sydney’s odds come in and for good reason. Despite Port beating Melbourne last week, I still just don’t trust them. It took 7 goals from Mitch Georgiades for them to look dangerous going forward and that’s the only time we’ll see him do that this season. Jason Horne-Francis may miss which would be a huge out, so a lot of my opinions on this game will hinge on what the final teams that are announced look like.
Mr Pineapple thinks – If Horne-Francis is out and Gulden is in, that is enough for me to confidently tip the swans here. They’re getting key players back and coming off the bye I think it’s the perfect time for them to get back somewhere close to the footy that made them a grand final last season! Swans +9.5 if you want a little bit of safety, I’d take that now and hope Gulden comes back because that line will change when the teams are announced!
Collingwood $1.15 v St Kilda $5.25
The Pies are coming off the bye so I’m not expecting them to be resting any key players here, whereas the Saints are coming off a belting from the Bulldogs. It’s hard to see how the Saints turn things around, they did not look good against the Dogs and even though Collingwood only just got over the line against the Dee’s, they are playing the best football this season. Nick Daicos copped a hard tag and I’d expect Windhager or someone to go to him again this weekend but his Pies team mates have come out and said they need to do more to protect him, so I’m expecting a big game from him. The Saints just don’t have the mids or forwards to pose a threat here in my opinion!
Mr Pineapple thinks – The Pies, by how much, however much they want! I think the -31.5 line is a good bet as I can see this being a 50+ points win for the Pies who, with the oldest list would be more likely to enjoy the rest having last weeks bye provided.
GWS $1.78 v Gold Coast $2.02
The expansion club cup! If you’d asked me this last week I would have expected Gold Coast to be favourites here, that was before GWS came out and beat Brisbane, however when you look closely, Brisbane should have won that game if they kicked straight. It is being played in Sydney though which typically isn’t great for Gold Coast as they have been a much better team at home. The Suns do get Noah Anderson back and despite a little lull in their form recently I still think Gold Coast are the better overall team here.
Mr Pineapple thinks – This might be the hardest game to tip of the round but we are getting better odds on the Suns and over the last month, I still like their form better of these two teams. If the weather forecast is good, I like the over 162.5 total score if it’s not a wet game.
Western Bulldogs v Richmond $11.50
The Bulldogs are proving to be a bit of a flat track bully this season, they absolutely belt the teams in the bottom 8, they’re simply a class above those and have Sam Darcy back now, he’ll improve off his first game back and that’s scary as he was best on ground. The Tigers will have Noah Balta available but he’s not tell enough to stop Darcy on the lead with his 3.9m reach when he jumps at the footy. Whatever the odds on Darcy to kick 5+ are, I reckon take that! Richmond have exceeded expectation this season but the Bulldogs need to keep clocking these type of wins and I’m confident they cover the -48.5 line here.
Mr Pineapple thinks – I love what Richmond have been doing but if there’s a team that knows how to put the lower teams away, it’s the Dogs. If you’re way off the lead you could cross your fingers and pick Richmond, I won’t be because I think if they played this game 100 times, Bulldogs win 100 of them.
Punting Pyramid Best Bet
I’m suggesting you go place the Pyramid bet right now whilst the Roo’s $1.90 line is still +24.5, as I’m expecting the Blues will be without both Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay and once that’s announced, the line will probably change to something around half that margin!
DOG OF THE ROUND – Obviously I’m big on the Roo’s against Carlton this weekend but we used them for the Pyramid bet, so I’m going with Sydney as my dog of the round, similar thinking as with the North Melbourne game. We’ll see Amarty back, probably Gulden and possibly Port will be without Horne-Francis. Take Sydney with the +9.5 advantage at the line now!
MULTI WORTH A PINEAPPLE
Collingwood -31.5 Win $1.90
Bulldogs -48.5 Win $1.90
Sydney +9.5 Win $1.90
Geelong Win $1.42
$9.70-1
